612
FXUS64 KFWD 241805
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
105 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY LATE NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST LOW RAIN
CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
WARM AND DRY THROUGH SUNDAY, AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
TO TREK EASTWARD FROM TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
SUNDAY EVENING. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST AREAS, UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THESE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
OCTOBER.
ON SUNDAY, A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS
OUR AREA, POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCURSION OF LOWER CLOUDS
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FROM AROUND DAYBREAK THROUGH MIDDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF DECREASING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS AHEAD OF THE LOW TO
OUR WEST, ALONG WITH THE CLOUDINESS, SHOULD HELP SHAVE A FEW
DEGREES OFF OUR HIGHS FOR SUNDAY. IT WILL STILL FEEL QUITE BALMY,
HOWEVER, WITH VALUES REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
THE AMPLIFIED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND WILL BECOME
AN OPEN WAVE AND QUICKLY ZIP NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THIS TROUGH WILL
BRUSH NORTH TEXAS, PERHAPS INTRODUCING SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS
ON MONDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL UPPER LOW, THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN ENERGETIC FULL LATITUDE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MODEL SOLUTIONS,
PARTICULARLY THE EURO AND EURO AI ENSEMBLES, ADVERTISE A FAST,
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BY
TUESDAY. NEITHER LIFT NOR MOISTURE WILL BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH
THIS FEATURE, YET IT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SPAWN SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN RAIN-
FREE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A MORE CONCERTED ATTEMPT AT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, AS ANOTHER WEAKLY
AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVES OUT OF MEXICO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL, AND MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT SUSTAINED LOW AND MID
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAINFALL PROBABILITIES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORIES FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND
WON'T BE A TOTAL WASHOUT, ENOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPREAD
ACROSS THIS FORECAST PERIOD TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT HALLOWEEN PLANS
AND OTHER ACTIVITES.
DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK, BUT WILL RECEDE CLOSER TO TYPICAL LATE OCTOBER VALUES
BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z
SUNDAY EVENING, AS A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE MUCH OF TEXAS. ANY CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE
LIMITED FOR THE MOST PART TO THE HIGH, THIN CIRRUS VARIETY THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER, A TAP OF LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE TONIGHT, AS LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEASTLY FLOW INCREASES JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS
MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO MUSTER SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR
CLOUDINESS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS FROM 10Z TO 17Z. WHILE NO CLOUD
GROUP WAS REFERENCED IN THE WACO TAF, LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO
INCLUDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCT-BKN020 AT THAT LOCATION. AT THIS
TIME, NO CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE D10 AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
SUNDAY, AT SPEEDS AVERAGING 4 TO 8 KNOTS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 62 81 59 80 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 58 81 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 56 81 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 58 81 55 79 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 58 81 55 79 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 62 82 59 81 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 57 81 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 58 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 59 82 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 60 80 56 79 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BRADSHAW
LONG TERM....BRADSHAW
AVIATION...BRADSHAW
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