571
FXUS64 KFWD 251035
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
535 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK.
- A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK,
BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST LOW RAIN
CHANCES BY NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TO END THE WEEKEND AND BEGIN THE
WORKWEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN AND
RETREATS SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS SMALL PATTERN SHIFT WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AS MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER SPILLS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH MODEST HEIGHT FALLS, WILL AID IN KNOCKING A FEW DEGREES OFF
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. READINGS WILL WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH, MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. MOISTURE CONTENT WILL ALSO BEGIN INCREASING THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS RETURN TO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
THIS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN MORNING STRATUS COVERAGE, AS
WELL AS PERHAPS SOME FOG IN PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES ARE NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND EVEN INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. LATE-WEEK RAIN CHANCES HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO DECREASE AS A
RESULT OF THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKDOWN AND
NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE UPPER JET STREAK. AS A RESULT, OUR
LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WILL CONSIST PRIMARILY OF
RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION, SOME OF WHICH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. MORE MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES WILL
LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY PERIOD WHEN A MORE
PRONOUNCED SUBTROPICAL JET IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO THE AREA
COINCIDENT WITH A COMPACT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. DAYS 6-9 STILL
APPEAR TO POSSESS THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES, BUT THESE CHANCES ARE
STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN AND POPS OF MORE THAN ABOUT 30-40% ARE NOT
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH A SCT/BKN CANOPY OF CIRRUS ARRIVING FROM
THE WEST TODAY. LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAVE REMAINED SOUTH AND WEST
OF KACT THIS MORNING, AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH NO
CATEGORY REDUCTIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 82 59 80 62 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 82 55 80 61 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 82 54 80 57 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 82 55 79 58 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 82 56 80 58 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 83 59 81 63 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 83 56 81 58 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 82 56 81 60 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 83 55 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 82 56 80 59 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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