064
FXUS64 KFWD 251821
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
121 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK.
- A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK,
BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF RAIN BY
NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM LATE OCTOBER WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY. A STOUT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE HAS FINALLY RETREATED EAST OF OUR REGION INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO PIVOT
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES, TOWARD THE UPPER
PLAINS. BORNE ON STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS,
AN EXPANSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD WILL STREAM OUT OF MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS THICK UPPER CLOUD DECK WILL HELP SHAVE A FEW
DEGREES OFF OF THIS AFTERNOON'S HIGHS, WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT, CONVERSELY, WILL REMAIN
A TAD ABOVE THOSE WE'VE SEEN AREAWIDE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
WE'LL ENJOY JUST A BIT MORE SUN ON MONDAY, INTERSPERSED WITH
ADDITIONAL PATCHY HIGH CLOUDINESS. WITH FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
THE OVERALL PATTERN, HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO
THOSE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON - UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES, WITH LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
A BAGGY UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, LEAVING NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS WITHIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME, AND OPEN TO
MULTIPLE RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES. THE LATEST EURO AND GFS
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS DEPICT A SUBTLE WAVE RIPPLING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY. FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS INITIAL
SYSTEM, AND NBM POPS APPROPRIATELY REMAIN IN THE 10-30% RANGE FOR
OUR FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
MOST AREAS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL ACTUALLY REMAIN DRY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS WEAK RIDGING TEMPORARILY HOLDS SWAY
OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FETCH OF MOISTURE, COMBINED WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A
KILLEEN TO CANTON LINE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT AND SPOTTY WITH THIS ACTIVITY, BUT A FEW LUCKY SPOTS MAY
GET WET. MOST LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE UNSEASONABLY MILD
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE PRIMARY PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THIS CURRENT FORECAST
WILL BEGIN THURSDAY, AS ANOTHER WAVE, EMBEDDED IN THE BROADER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. LOW AND MID
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY, AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, PER THE EURO ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS, WILL CLIMB INTO THE 150-225% RANGE BY SATURDAY. WHILE
THE EXACT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ROUNDS IS NEBULOUS AT THIS
RANGE, WE'LL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING AT INTERVALS, FIRST IN THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND EXPANDING EASTWARD TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THIS STAGE, POPS
FOR ANY GIVEN 12 HOUR PERIOD ARE GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 40-60%
THROUGH SATURDAY, THOUGH THE OVERALL LIKELIHOOD OF EVERYONE
SEEING AT LEAST SOME RAIN IS HIGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE A HALF INCH TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXTENDED RANGE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF TEXAS ON SUNDAY, WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT MAJOR TROUGH IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
PRECIPITATION AT MULTIPLE POINTS THROUGH THE WEEK OF NOVEMBER 3RD
THROUGH THE 9TH. OUR STRONG EL NINO PATTERN IS STARTING TO
DELIVER THE GENEROUS FALL RAINFALL WE'VE BEEN MESSAGING FOR THE
PAST FEW MONTHS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES THROUGH
00Z TUESDAY, AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RECEDES EAST OF THE
REGION. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, A BROAD CIRRUS
SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER NORTH TEXAS TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDINESS BETWEEN 10Z AND 15Z MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS CLOUDINESS IS LOW ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY OMITTING
MENTION IN THE WACO TAF AT THIS TIME.
A NEAR STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL
PROMOTE A CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AREAWIDE
TODAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL AVERAGE
7 TO 10 KNOTS, DIMINISHING TO 3-5 KNOTS AFTER 03Z, AND RESUMING
AT SPEEDS OF 5 TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z MONDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 59 80 62 81 / 0 0 0 10
WACO 55 80 61 80 / 0 0 0 10
PARIS 54 80 57 80 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 55 79 58 80 / 0 0 0 10
MCKINNEY 56 80 58 80 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 59 81 63 82 / 0 0 0 10
TERRELL 56 81 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 56 81 60 80 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 55 82 61 81 / 0 0 0 10
MINERAL WELLS 56 80 59 80 / 0 0 0 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BRADSHAW
LONG TERM....BRADSHAW
AVIATION...BRADSHAW
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