420
FXUS64 KFWD 260556
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1256 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORKWEEK,
WITH OCCASIONAL LOW RAIN CHANCES MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-35.
- A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK,
LEADING TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
THE BREAKDOWN OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL ALLOW LOW RAIN
CHANCES TO FINALLY ENTER THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PERSIST. A SOUTHERLY WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO SEND
INCREASING MOISTURE CONTENT NORTHWARD INTO WEST TEXAS AND THE BIG
COUNTRY TODAY AHEAD OF A COMPACT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE TRANSITING NEW
MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS COINCIDENT MOISTURE/LIFT
SHOULD RESULT IN A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CWA BY THIS EVENING. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY FINALLY ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY DECAYING, AND MEAGER INSTABILITY SHOULD
KEEP ANY THUNDER OCCURRENCES VERY SPARSE OR PERHAPS EVEN ABSENT
ENTIRELY. THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVERALL IS
QUITE LOW, THUS POPS WILL BE CAPPED AT NO MORE THAN 20% OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
AS THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT RAIN
CHANCES QUICKLY PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY,
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RATHER SLIM IN ITS WAKE AS WEAK MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS BEHIND. HOWEVER, CONTINUED WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION WITHIN THE EASTWARD-SHIFTING LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS MAY
STILL SUPPORT VERY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF I-35. LOW POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED THROUGH
THIS PERIOD AS WELL, BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY DRY. ALTHOUGH THE
CIRRUS CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING
DURING THE DAYTIME, THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
CULMINATE IN MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER, AND HIGHS WILL
LIKELY BE HELD TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AS A RESULT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD, WE'LL LARGELY BE POSITIONED BETWEEN
STORM SYSTEMS WITHIN MODEST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, WHILE SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE LOW-LEVELS. THIS REGIME WILL
MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AS
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOW/MID 80S ON A DAILY BASIS WHILE
DEWPOINTS RETURN TO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE
LIFTING MECHANISMS WILL BE ABSENT, WARM ADVECTION COULD SUPPORT
SHOWERY PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY WITH COVERAGE PROBABLY ONLY REACHING
10% AT MOST.
A MORE PRONOUNCED PATTERN SHIFT IS STILL EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK AS A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. FOLLOWING MULTIPLE DAYS OF
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION, THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO HARNESS
THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST WARM SECTOR TO PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH THE THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETER SPACE LACKING SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY, MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CONSIST OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AT THIS TIME
RATHER THAN A STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE EVENT. PEAK RAIN CHANCES
ARE CURRENTLY FROM THE DAYTIME FRIDAY UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING,
WITH ACTIVITY TENDING TO TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER, ANY SMALL
TRAJECTORY DIFFERENCES COULD STILL EASILY SHIFT THIS TIMELINE BY
~24 HOURS IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
THERE ARE MINIMAL AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND VFR SKIES PREVAILING. BKN/OVC CIRRUS WILL
CONTINUE TO PASS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING BEFORE PARTIALLY CLEARING
OUT LATER TODAY. ALL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 82 59 81 62 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 83 56 81 60 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 80 55 81 57 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 80 57 80 59 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 80 57 80 59 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 81 60 82 63 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 81 56 81 59 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 78 57 80 60 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 80 57 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 79 57 80 59 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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