458
FXUS64 KFWD 261843
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
143 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORKWEEK,
WITH OCCASIONAL LOW RAIN CHANCES TODAY WEST OF I-35, AND ACROSS
SOUTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK,
LEADING TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
RAIN CHANCES HAVE RETURNED TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST, WITH
SEVERAL KEY INGREDIENTS ALREADY BEGINNING TO SET UP FOR OUR NEXT
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. AT THE CONUS LEVEL, A WEAK TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS, BREAKING
DOWN OUR STOUT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND FLATTENING IT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. WITH THIS BREAKDOWN, CONTINUED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE
RETURN AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP MAINTAIN ONGOING SHOWERS TO
THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA,
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO STEPHENS, YOUNG, JACK, AND MONTAGUE
COUNTIES BEFORE QUICKLY CLEARING TO THE NORTH. COVERAGE WILL BE
SPARSE, AS ANY SHOWERS WILL ALREADY BE DECAYING BY THE TIME THEY
MAKE IT INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
TUESDAY, AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST, SO
TOO WILL THE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. WEAK MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER ONGOING MID/HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS
CLOUD DECKS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT STRONG
SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD LOW-LEVEL
CLOUDS AND GRAY CONDITIONS BACK TO NTX/CTX. WITH THE CONTINUED
OVERCAST CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE KEPT IN CHECK AND
SEASONAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO
HIGHLIGHT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WRAPPING BACK ACROSS THE
GULF, AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITUATED IN THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. WITH THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY ADVECTION, THERE EXISTS A LESS THAN 30% FOR ISOLATED SEA
BREEZE-ESQUE CONVECTION, PRIMARILY FOR SOUTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
WHILE A SHOWER OR TWO MAY CROSS INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA,
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INDICATE MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF POPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, ANOTHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SHIFT IS EXPECTED
AS A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF MOISTURE RETURN, THIS JET WILL
PROVIDE BROAD LIFT TO A VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR, RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER. WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE IN
PLACE, ANY PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE WETTING RAINS WITH A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER HERE AND THERE, RATHER THAN A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.
WHILE THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIP TOTALS, THE
PERIOD WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD
KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO RAIN POTENTIAL.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND BENEFICIAL RAIN WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID 70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WARMING BACK UP INTO THE 80S ON
SUNDAY.
GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, LREF CLUSTER GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENT IN CONTINUING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN, WITH LOW DAILY RAIN
CHANCES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY TO WATCH FOR WILL BE THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL JET AS IT PUSHES EAST, AND A TROUGH
PROGGED TO DIG SOUTH IN THE DAY 6-8 PERIOD (SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY).
THIS INTERACTION, AND WHERE THE SUBSEQUENT ASCENT REGION IS, WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR NTX/CTX.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S TO CONTINUE, WITH CRISP
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS (120-180) PREVAILING. MID AND HIGH-LEVEL
CIRRUS CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
SKIRTS ALONG THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF D10. ANY LOW CIGS AND
ATTENDANT PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TO THE WEST OF ALL DFW AREA TERMINALS
AND KACT. WHILE THERE IS A LOW (LESS THAN 15%) CHANCE THAT MVFR
CIGS/SHRA PUSHES EAST INTO RANGE OF THE TERMINALS, LATEST LAMP
AND MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP ANY OPERATIONAL IMPACTS TO THE
WEST OF D10.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 62 82 63 83 / 10 20 0 10
WACO 60 82 61 83 / 10 20 0 20
PARIS 57 81 57 84 / 0 0 0 10
DENTON 57 81 59 83 / 10 20 0 10
MCKINNEY 57 81 58 83 / 0 10 0 10
DALLAS 63 83 63 84 / 0 10 0 10
TERRELL 57 82 58 83 / 0 0 0 10
CORSICANA 60 81 60 83 / 0 10 0 20
TEMPLE 61 83 61 84 / 0 20 0 20
MINERAL WELLS 59 81 60 83 / 20 20 0 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DAVIS
LONG TERM....DAVIS
AVIATION...DAVIS
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