155
FXUS64 KFWD 270601
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
101 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORKWEEK,
WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK,
LEADING TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY
ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS IN THE PROCESS OF EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PAINS EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
TRAILING LIGHT RAIN FALLING FROM AN ATTENDANT MID CLOUD DECK
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS LIGHT RAIN WILL NOT BE
MEASURABLE FOR MOST LOCATIONS, HENCE POPS OF JUST 10% ADVERTISED
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY. WHILE
CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE PRESENT TO BEGIN THE DAY, THEY WILL ACCOMPANY
THE SHORTWAVE OFF TO THE EAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUD COVER REMAINING BY THIS EVENING. LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE, WHILE HIGHS REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY, AND AN
EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS WILL SEND DEWPOINTS
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S LOCALLY. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE
LIFT WILL BE ABSENT AS MODEST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH
MIDWEEK, SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION MAY ALLOW FOR
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, THIS POTENTIAL IS PRESENTLY TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY
POPS/PRECIP MENTION IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST. EXPECT ANOTHER
AFTERNOON OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AS A RESULT
OF THIS WARM ADVECTION REGIME, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
A MORE ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS STILL EXPECTED TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY WEST OF I-35 AS HIGHER QUALITY MOISTURE
CONTENT ARRIVES WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID OR
EVEN UPPER 60S. BY FRIDAY, A LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SHIFT TO DEEP
WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING WILL ALLOW A SUBTROPICAL JET TO INTERACT
WITH REMNANT MOISTURE FROM A PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AND TEXAS. THIS WILL OFFER FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES
ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-35 FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH
MEAGER INSTABILITY PRESENT, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONSIST OF A
BROAD AREA OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN, IT APPEARS THAT
HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES COULD LARGELY BE UNAFFECTED AS MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD BE WINDING DOWN DURING THE DAYTIME SATURDAY.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO SOME EXTENT
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL WITHOUT A FRONTAL PASSAGE TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM.
WHILE THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY STORM SYSTEM WILL BE UNACCOMPANIED BY A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, A STRONGER FRONTAL INTRUSION IS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOST GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DEEPENING OF A POTENT
CENTRAL US UPPER LOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD BE ABLE TO
SEND A STRONGER FALL COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WOULD ALSO LIKELY OFFER SOME
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WITH ITS PASSAGE SHOULD THIS SOLUTION
COME TO FRUITION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS RESULTING IN LIGHT RAIN FALLING FROM A CLOUD DECK
AT ~10KFT, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. PRECIP CHANCES AT THE TERMINALS
ARE TOO LOW TO EVEN WARRANT VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. SKIES
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER TODAY, WHILE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT 5-10 KT CONTINUE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 80 62 82 63 / 0 10 10 0
WACO 80 60 82 61 / 0 10 10 0
PARIS 80 57 81 57 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 79 58 81 59 / 0 10 10 0
MCKINNEY 79 58 81 59 / 0 0 10 0
DALLAS 80 63 83 63 / 0 0 10 0
TERRELL 80 59 81 58 / 0 0 10 0
CORSICANA 78 60 81 61 / 0 0 10 0
TEMPLE 80 61 83 62 / 0 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 78 59 81 60 / 0 10 20 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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