789
FXUS64 KFWD 271908
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
208 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS (15-30% CHANCE) ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL BRING NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S RETURN THIS
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, VISIBLE SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE EJECTING INTO THE MIDWEST, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ANY REMAINING CLOUD COVER EXITING TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REINFORCE CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT,
BRINGING RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S.
WEDNESDAY, CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP PULL GULF MOISTURE
NORTH ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS (20-30%) PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-20. SOME OF
THESE MAY BE CAPABLE OF RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR OWING TO
1.5"+ PWAT'S AND TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES. DESPITE THESE
RAINFALL RATES, FLOODING IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE BRIEF
AND SPOTTY NATURE OF ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DRIVEN BY WEAK
INSTABILITY (MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG) AS SHOWN IN THE MOST RECENT
CAMS. OTHERWISE, WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S, AND LOWS BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
THURSDAY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DAILY UNSETTLED WEATHER AS A SHORTWAVE
EJECTS OFF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WILL BRING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S BY THIS TIME.
THIS MOISTURE RETURN, COINCIDING WITH SYNOPTIC ASCENT OWING TO
PVA FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL HELP PROMOTE SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS (50% POP) THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO STAY WEST OF I-35. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND EAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE ON THE WEAKER END, WITH THE LATEST LREF ENSEMBLES
OFFERING 200-400 J/KG OF MUCAPE. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER OR TWO AMIDST THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERY ACTIVITY. AS
THIS SHORTWAVE SHUNTS NORTHEAST, BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE LINGERING CLOUD COVER, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. SATURDAY (HALLOWEEN) NIGHT, ANY REMAINING SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECAY, LEAVING BEHIND COOL AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S.
DAILY RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS MEDIUM-
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A DEEPENING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH.
THIS NEXT UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM MAY BRING A FALL COLD FRONT AND MID-
WEEK RAIN CHANCES. THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT AND ANY
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL BECOME CLEARER IN THE COMING DAYS, SO
STAY TUNED FOR MORE FORECAST UPDATES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
SCT/BKN MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
AFTER 10Z. WHILE THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE OF LOW CIGS
WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF KACT, OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE (40-50% CHANCE) BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z.
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 7 TO 14 KNOTS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AT ALL D10 TAF SITES FOR THE DURATION OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 63 83 66 82 / 0 10 0 0
WACO 61 83 64 81 / 0 30 0 10
PARIS 56 83 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 59 83 62 82 / 0 10 0 10
MCKINNEY 59 82 62 82 / 0 10 0 0
DALLAS 63 84 67 83 / 0 20 0 0
TERRELL 58 83 62 83 / 0 20 0 0
CORSICANA 60 83 63 82 / 0 30 0 0
TEMPLE 61 84 64 82 / 0 30 0 10
MINERAL WELLS 59 82 62 81 / 0 0 0 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DARRAH/DAVIS
LONG TERM....DARRAH/DAVIS
AVIATION...DARRAH
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