018
FXUS63 KGLD 140937
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
237 AM MST THU NOV 14 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- BENIGN WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST IN AREAS WITH SNOW COVER (WESTERN KIT
CARSON/CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN CO).
- ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN
CHANCES ON MONDAY.
- STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, USHERING IN COLD TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST THU NOV 14 2024
TODAY-TONIGHT: SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND MODEST HEIGHT RISES IN
THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW (PROGRESSING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING) WILL FOSTER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.. EXCEPT IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF KIT CARSON
AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN CO WHERE LINGERING SNOW COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW REGIME WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IN THIS PERIOD.. AS UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF AN
AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC COAST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, PROMPTING MSLP-H85 HEIGHT FALLS IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. THE PRESENCE OF AN EXPANSIVE SNOWPACK
(ESSENTIALLY A MESO-HIGH) IN COLORADO WILL LOCALLY MUTE (OR
DAMPEN) MSLP-H85 HEIGHT FALLS -- RESULTING IN A RELATIVELY
WEAKER MSLP-H85 GRADIENT OVER EASTERN CO AND FAR NORTHWEST KS --
WHERE SOUTH WINDS MAY NOT EXCEED 10-20 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON, IN CONTRAST TO LOCATIONS FURTHER TO THE EAST
(ALONG/EAST OF HWY 83).. WHERE NOTICEABLY BREEZIER (25-35 MPH)
SOUTH WINDS ARE LIKELY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ANALOGOUS TO TODAY,
ALBEIT SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA (SOUTH AND EAST OF GOODLAND).
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 232 AM MST THU NOV 14 2024
WE START THE PATTERN OFF WITH A RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST AND
EASTERN CONUS WHILE A TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST, EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL CANADA TO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIAN COAST. THIS WILL SET UP A
LONG JET STREAM FROM THE SOUTHWEST, RUNNING FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA
INTO THE NORTHERN MIDWEST. COME SATURDAY EVENING WE CAN EXPECT THE
RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAK TO BE MOVING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS, ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. GFS,
ECMWF, AND CMC-NH GUIDANCE ARE SHOWING AN 850MB LLJ WILL PERSIST
FRIDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE FROPA SOMETIME SATURDAY EVENING. THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME GULF MOISTURE MOVING INTO OUR CWA VIA THE LLJ, BUT
DUE TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES, IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO CAUSE SATURATION AND PRECIPITATION. ON THE OFF CHANCE
THE MOIST CONVEYOR BELT MOVES FURTHER WEST, WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN CWA LATE SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW US TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S, THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY, THE JET STREAM LOOKS TO WEAKEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS DUE TO A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR FLORIDA EXTENDING
A RIDGE NORTHWEST. ALSO, A RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST ENCROACHES ON
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH, CREATING A CLOSED LOW. DESPITE THE
JET WEAKENING, WE WILL REMAIN IN THE "COOL" SECTOR AS THE 850 MB LOW
FORMS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND ITS WARM FRONT DRAPES UP THROUGH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS. A WEAK LEE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
FORM AROUND 18Z AND GIVE US SOME SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BY SUNSET
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO THE 50S FOR SUNDAY, BUT WE
SHOULD SEE SOME MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT, THE HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ITS RIDGE THAT WAS
WEAKENING THE JET STREAM, WILL RETREAT TO THE SOUTHEAST, ALLOWING
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN.
TRACKING THE 850 MB LOW, A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ IS SEEN MOVING WITH
THE LOW AS THE LOW MOVES INTO KANSAS BY MID-DAY MONDAY.
AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST, AROUND 12-18Z MONDAY, WE CAN ALSO
EXPECT ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE GREAT LAKES AREA. THE TERM
"FRONT" IS LOOSELY USED IN THIS SCENARIO SINCE WE ARE ALREADY IN THE
COOL SECTOR. HOWEVER, THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SHOWERS TO FORM.
THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOME COMPLICATED. AROUND AND EAST OF
WHERE THE LOW'S CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE, WE EXPECT TO SEE THE
EFFICIENT WARM PRECIPITATION PROCESSES LEAD TO HIGHER QPF. IN THE
WEST, WE EXPECT WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE TO FEED THE COOL PRECIPITATION
PROCESSES, LEADING TO LIGHTER SHOWERS AND LESS QPF. WHAT MAKES THIS
COMPLICATED IS DETERMINING THE PATH OF THE LOW, WHICH WILL DETERMINE
WHO GETS MORE AND LESS QPF. IF THE LOW IS FURTHER EAST, THE CWA WILL
ONLY SEE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE (MOST LIKELY; 50% CONFIDENCE). IF THE
LOW IS FURTHER WEST, THE EASTERN 2 COLUMNS OF OUR COUNTIES COULD SEE
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION (LEAST LIKELY; ~20% CONFIDENCE). THERE IS
ALSO ABOUT 30% CONFIDENCE THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES AND A SLIVER OVER THE CWA WILL SEE THE HIGHER QPF WHILE THE
REST OF THE CWA ONLY RECEIVES THE LOWER QPF.
MONDAY NIGHT, THE 850 MB LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH-NORTHEAST, LIKELY
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS IT WILL STALL OUT
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO WRAP MOISTURE AROUND INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER, POPS DROP
TO <30 FOR THIS TIME AND CENTER ON THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WINDS AND
CAA. AS THE LOW STALLS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, A FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FORM BETWEEN THE LOW AND A WEAK HIGH NEAR THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL CREATE A NORTHERLY LLJ TUESDAY MORNING THAT WILL
REMAIN UNTIL THE WEEKEND. THESE STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL EXTEND DOWN TO THE SURFACE, BUT HOW STRONG THEY WILL BE IS
STILL A BIT OF AN UNKNOWN. THERE IS HIGH (>75%) CONFIDENCE WINDS ON
TUESDAY-THURSDAY WILL GUST TO AT LEAST 30 KTS. THE NBM IS SHOWING A
GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE THAT OUR COLORADO COUNTIES WILL SEE A 50+KT
GUST ON EACH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, AT THIS RANGE THE NBM
HAS BEEN KNOWN TO HAVE A HIGH WIND BIAS, BUT WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON IT.
THE KEEN OBSERVERS AMONG YOU WILL HAVE PROBABLY NOTICED I HAVEN'T
MENTIONED P-TYPE YET. WELL, THAT'S BECAUSE THAT IS THE LOWEST
CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST. I'LL SET A BASELINE FORECAST
USING THE GFS20, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE FOLLOWING POTENTIALS IS ABOUT
EQUAL. FROM THE GFS, TEMPERATURES FOR THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THAT ONLY RAIN WILL FALL. BY TUESDAY
MORNING (~12Z) SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO 0C IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA. THIS SUPPORTS ONLY SNOW AS THERE IS NO MELTING
LAYER ALOFT, ONLY COLDER AIR. THIS TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL EXTEND
TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY AND WILL PERSIST OVER
THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WITH THIS OPTION, THERE WILL
ONLY BE A BRIEF (1-3 HOUR) PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AND THAT IS THE ONLY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANCE.
A WARMER SOLUTION (SIMILAR TO THE NBM) WILL SEE TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY WARMING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. THIS WILL NOT ONLY CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION TWICE A DAY, ONCE AS WE WARM AND
ANOTHER AS WE COOL, IT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SURFACE REFREEZE POTENTIAL. THE STILL WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES AND
STRONG WINDS WILL HELP MINIMIZE THESE REFREEZE POTENTIALS AND
IMPACTS. HOWEVER, THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WOULD BE RAIN WITH ONLY A FEW RANDOM FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA.
THE COOLER SOLUTION ISN'T MODELED IN ANY GUIDANCE I COULD FIND, BUT
WOULD BE DRIVEN BY COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED CAA MONDAY DUE TO FAR EASTERLY TRACK OF THE LOW. WITH THIS
SOLUTION, THE WESTERN CWA WILL SEE VERY LIMITED RAIN AND SNOW WILL
BEGIN EARLY. ALSO, THE REST OF THE CWA WILL COOL TO BELOW FREEZING
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS WOULD MEAN MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ONWARD WOULD
BE BELOW FREEZING, AND I'M NOT READY FOR THAT.
LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH ALL THREE OF THESE SCENARIOS DO NOT CHANGE
TOO MUCH AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP US FROM DROPPING TOO LOW. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER TEENS IN
COLORADO WHILE LOW/MID 20S ARE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN CWA. WIND
CHILLS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CWA ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH THE COLORADO COUNTIES APPROACHING 0F
WIND CHILLS.
LIST OF ACRONYMS:
NBM - NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS
GFS - GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM
ECMWF - EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
CMC-NH - CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
CAA - COLD AIR ADVECTION
POP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
LLJ - LOW LEVEL JET
RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY
F/C - FAHRENHEIT/CELSIUS
QPF - QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
MB - MILLIBAR
KTS - KNOTS
Z - ZULU TIME (UTC)
CWA - COUNTY WARNING AREA
CONUS - CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST THU NOV 14 2024
..EXCELLENT AVIATION WEATHER..
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL RULE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS. ASIDE FROM SCATTERED TO BROKEN
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER (CIRRUS AT 15-25 KFT AGL) THIS MORNING..
CLEAR SKIES WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...VINCENT
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