069
FXUS63 KGLD 151026
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
326 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- BENIGN WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND. AREAS WITH SNOW COVER (FAR WESTERN KIT
CARSON/CHEYENNE COUNTIES, CO) WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
- ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN
CHANCES ON MONDAY.
- STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, USHERING IN COLD TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 325 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2024
TODAY-TONIGHT: A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW REGIME WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
ENVELOPES THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES IN ADVANCE OF AN
AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.. PROMPTING
MSLP-H85 HEIGHT FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE.
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF AN EXPANSIVE SNOWPACK -- ESSENTIALLY A
MESO-HIGH -- IN COLORADO WILL [1] STYMIE VERTICAL MIXING AND
[2] ACT TO LOCALLY MUTE (OR DAMPEN) MSLP-H85 HEIGHT FALLS..
RESULTING IN A RELATIVELY WEAKER MSLP-H85 GRADIENT OVER EASTERN
CO AND ADJACENT KS BORDER AREAS.. WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY NOT
EXCEED 10-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, IN CONTRAST TO LOCATIONS
SITUATED FURTHER EAST (MAINLY EAST OF HWY 83).. WHERE GFS-RAP-
HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ~20-30 KNOT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
RESIDE WITHIN A SHALLOW (~3000-3500 FEET AGL) MIXED LAYER.. AND
NOTICEABLY BREEZIER (25-35 MPH) WINDS ARE LIKELY. EXPECT ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ANALOGOUS TO YESTERDAY.
SAT-SAT NIGHT: GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT -- [1] THE
SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE PACIFIC COAST TROUGH WILL BE SEVERED
FROM THE MAIN BELT OF MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.. RESULTING IN
SLOWER FORWARD (EASTWARD) PROGRESS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST/DESERT SOUTHWEST AND, ULTIMATELY, THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CUT-
OFF LOW INVOF BAJA, CA BY 12Z SUN AND -- [2] THAT THE
NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE TROUGH, STILL ENTANGLED IN THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER THE PAC NW AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, WILL
PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS (SAT) AND ENE INTO
ONTARIO (SAT NIGHT). IN OTHER WORDS, THE PORTION OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BE INCREASINGLY
SHEARED/DEFORMED AND THE PREVIOUSLY WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
/SURFACE TO 850 MB/ TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
(TODAY-TONIGHT) WILL DECAY AND FALL INTO A STATE OF DISARRAY
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY -- RESULTING IN A NEBULOUS LOW-LEVEL
PATTERN GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY LIGHT WINDS AND NEUTRAL
THERMAL ADVECTION. GIVEN THAT THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL BE IN
RELATIVE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE NORTHERN /PROGRESSIVE/ PORTION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH.. A MODEST NORTHERLY BREEZE /PERIOD OF WEAK
COLD ADVECTION/ CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA SAT AFT-EVE. EITHER WAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY
ANALOGOUS TO TODAY -- COOLEST IN AREAS WITH LINGERING SNOW COVER
(I.E. FAR WESTERN KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE COUNTIES, CO).
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2024
WE START THE PERIOD OFF WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA, BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA, AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A BOUNDARY ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH DRAPES ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS, KEEPING US IN THE COOL AND DRY SECTOR THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WE CAN ALSO EXPECT TO SEE A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
LEE HIGH FORM AROUND NORTHERN COLORADO AND QUICKLY MOVE EAST.
THIS HIGH WON'T HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES, BUT IT WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY EVENING, HELPING MOVE
MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE CWA.
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY, THE LEE HIGH MERGES WITH THE HIGH OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND RETREATS TO THE SOUTHEAST, ALLOWING THE
SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND
DEEPEN. LOOKING AT THE 300K PLANE, THE BOUNDARY IS CLEARLY SEEN
MOVING INTO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS THE LOW STARTS MOVING.
THE OVERNIGHT ADVECTION WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CWA FROM THE
EAST-NORTHEAST, ALLOWING FOR FOG TO FORM MONDAY MORNING. IF THE
FOG IS ABLE TO FORM, ITS EXTENT LOOKS TO COVER ABOUT THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA, BUT CONFIDENCE IN FOG IS ONLY AROUND 25%. IF
THE ADVECTION IS MORE EASTERLY, MORE FOG IS IS EXPECTED, IF THE
ADVECTION IS MORE NORTHERLY, LESS FOG WILL FORM. THIS MOIST
ADVECTION WILL ALSO WORK TO SLOW TEMPERATURES FROM COOLING OFF.
LOWS WILL LIKELY RANGE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE CWA. EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, THE MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD GIVE US SOME WARM FRONT
TYPE STRATIFORM SHOWERS. POPS IN THE THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA
GET UP AROUND 50 DECREASING TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WHILE MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RAIN, OUR COLORADO COUNTIES
COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR JUST SNOW WITH THESE
SHOWERS. THE BIG DECIDING FACTOR WILL BE HOW COOL THE
TEMPERATURES GET BEFORE THE MOIST ADVECTION BECOMES EFFICIENT.
12Z MONDAY TO 0Z TUESDAY, THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS KANSAS AND
THE BOUNDARY BECOMES COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST WITH THE LOW,
WHICH IS VERY CLEAR AT THE 300K LEVEL. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORCING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THIS EVENT. CONFIDENCE
IS VERY HIGH THAT THE EASTERN 2 COLUMNS OF COUNTIES IN THE CWA
WILL SEE A DECENT RAIN MONDAY WITH POPS ABOVE 70. POPS ARE LOWER
(~30-50) IN THE WESTERN CWA, MAINLY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF
HOW FAR WEST THE MOISTURE WILL ADVECT. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING
(~65%) THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN WITH A
SHRINKING CHANCE (<25%) IT WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW.
MONDAY NIGHT, THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH-NORTHEAST, BUT WHERE
IT GOES AND HOW LONG IT STAYS THERE IS A BIT MURKY. THE GENERAL
PATH WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES
BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY, GIVE OR TAKE A DAY. THIS
WILL PUT THE CWA UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH COULD ALLOW A
FEW WEAK SHOWERS TO FORM IN THE MID WEEK. IF THE LOW REMAINS
CLOSE TO THE CWA, WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE STRONGER WIND GUSTS THAN
IF IT MOVES FARTHER AWAY. HOWEVER, WE STILL EXPECTED TO SEE A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, REGARDLESS OF
WHERE THE LOW IS. COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO, THE NORTHERLY LLJ IS
MUCH WEAKER, WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN HIGH WIND GUSTS AND
WEAKENS THE CAA, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER THAN
FORECAST YESTERDAY. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE
DETERMINING P-TYPE FOR MID WEEK SHOWERS MORE DIFFICULT. FROM THE
MID WEEK SHOWERS, NOTHING IMPACTFUL IS EXPECTED AT THIS POINT,
UNLESS SEEING SNOW PUTS YOU IN A BAD MOOD. POTENTIAL P-TYPES
WILL LIKELY INCLUDE RAIN, RAIN/SNOW MIXES, AND JUST SNOW.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER
TEENS IN COLORADO WHILE LOW/MID 20S ARE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN
CWA. WIND CHILLS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CWA
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH THE COLORADO
COUNTIES APPROACHING 0F WIND CHILLS. WE COULD SEE WIND CHILLS
WARM IS THE WINDS WEAKEN.
LIST OF ACRONYMS:
CAA - COLD AIR ADVECTION
POP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
LLJ - LOW LEVEL JET
RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY
C/K/F - CELSIUS/KELVIN/FAHRENHEIT
QPF - QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
P-TYPE - PRECIPITATION TYPE
MB - MILLIBAR
KTS - KNOTS
Z - ZULU TIME (UTC)
CWA - COUNTY WARNING AREA
CONUS - CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 320 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2024
GLD: VFR CONDITIONS /CLEAR SKIES/ WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S AND
INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING, FURTHER INCREASING TO
~15-22 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW AND DECREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT, NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD (~06-12Z SAT).
MCK: VFR CONDITIONS /CLEAR SKIES/ WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S AND
INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING, FURTHER INCREASING TO
~15-25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE EVENING.
S WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT, NEAR THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD (~06-12Z SAT).
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...VINCENT
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