819
FXUS63 KGLD 151909
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1209 PM MST FRI NOV 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- BENIGN WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND. AREAS WITH SNOW COVER (FAR WESTERN KIT
CARSON/CHEYENNE COUNTIES, CO) WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
- ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN
CHANCES ON MONDAY.
- STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, USHERING IN COLD TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 325 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2024
TODAY-TONIGHT: A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW REGIME WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
ENVELOPES THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES IN ADVANCE OF AN
AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.. PROMPTING
MSLP-H85 HEIGHT FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE.
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF AN EXPANSIVE SNOWPACK -- ESSENTIALLY A
MESO-HIGH -- IN COLORADO WILL [1] STYMIE VERTICAL MIXING AND
[2] ACT TO LOCALLY MUTE (OR DAMPEN) MSLP-H85 HEIGHT FALLS..
RESULTING IN A RELATIVELY WEAKER MSLP-H85 GRADIENT OVER EASTERN
CO AND ADJACENT KS BORDER AREAS.. WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY NOT
EXCEED 10-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, IN CONTRAST TO LOCATIONS
SITUATED FURTHER EAST (MAINLY EAST OF HWY 83).. WHERE GFS-RAP-
HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ~20-30 KNOT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
RESIDE WITHIN A SHALLOW (~3000-3500 FEET AGL) MIXED LAYER.. AND
NOTICEABLY BREEZIER (25-35 MPH) WINDS ARE LIKELY. EXPECT ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ANALOGOUS TO YESTERDAY.
SAT-SAT NIGHT: GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT -- [1] THE
SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE PACIFIC COAST TROUGH WILL BE SEVERED
FROM THE MAIN BELT OF MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.. RESULTING IN
SLOWER FORWARD (EASTWARD) PROGRESS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST/DESERT SOUTHWEST AND, ULTIMATELY, THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CUT-
OFF LOW INVOF BAJA, CA BY 12Z SUN AND -- [2] THAT THE
NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE TROUGH, STILL ENTANGLED IN THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER THE PAC NW AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, WILL
PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS (SAT) AND ENE INTO
ONTARIO (SAT NIGHT). IN OTHER WORDS, THE PORTION OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BE INCREASINGLY
SHEARED/DEFORMED AND THE PREVIOUSLY WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
/SURFACE TO 850 MB/ TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
(TODAY-TONIGHT) WILL DECAY AND FALL INTO A STATE OF DISARRAY
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY -- RESULTING IN A NEBULOUS LOW-LEVEL
PATTERN GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY LIGHT WINDS AND NEUTRAL
THERMAL ADVECTION. GIVEN THAT THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL BE IN
RELATIVE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE NORTHERN /PROGRESSIVE/ PORTION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH.. A MODEST NORTHERLY BREEZE /PERIOD OF WEAK
COLD ADVECTION/ CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA SAT AFT-EVE. EITHER WAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY
ANALOGOUS TO TODAY -- COOLEST IN AREAS WITH LINGERING SNOW COVER
(I.E. FAR WESTERN KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE COUNTIES, CO).
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 PM MST FRI NOV 15 2024
COMPARING THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME AS
A 500/700MB SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION, FOLLOWED BY
AMPLIFIED RIDGING AT 500MB MOVING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE TWO MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE, BUT THE OVERALL CONSENSUS WILL BE
TO CARRY THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE CWA.
AT THE SURFACE, THE PASSING OF THE STRONG SYSTEM AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO A STRONG RIDGE THAT BUILDS SOUTHEAST OFF
THE ROCKIES IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM. THE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
THE RIDGE WILL CREATE A STRONG NW FLOW THAT WILL PERSIST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTS COULD APPROACH THE 25-35 MPH RANGE,
ESPECIALLY IN COLORADO. THE EXPECTED WIND FLOW WILL CREATE SOME
UPSLOPE EFFECTS IN COLORADO AND COMBINED WITH THE 500/700MB
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE, THERE IS A 15-20% CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
TO OCCUR. LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS, WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.
WHAT IS GOING TO OCCUR IN ADDITION TO THE LIMITED SNOWFALL POTENTIAL
WILL BE COLD WIND CHILL READINGS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SKIES AREA EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM 06Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD, PROVIDING
AMPLE RADIATIONAL COOLING TO CREATE COLD WIND CHILL READINGS W/ THE
WIND. 850MB TEMPS WILL FLOAT WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO AROUND 0C DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND DROPPING INTO THE -1C TO -2C
RANGE AREA-WIDE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST BEGINS
ITS TREK INTO/THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE PLAINS REGION PROVIDING THE AREA WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.
FOR TEMPS, HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE BELOW NORMAL W/
WARMEST AREAS ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. WESTERN PORTIONS OF KIT
CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN COLORADO MAY ONLY GET INTO THE UPPER
30S AT BEST DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SNOWPACK REMAINING IN THE AREA.
GOING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BACK TO NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS
WITH 50S AREA-WIDE. SOME LOCALES FRIDAY MAY APPROACH THE 60F MARK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH
COLDEST SPOTS ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. LOWER TO MID 20S EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, GIVING WAY TO MAINLY MID AND UPPER 20S FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS. THERE MIGHT BE A FEW SPOTS THAT MAY ONLY
DROP TO THE 30F MARK THESE NIGHTS.
WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WIND CHILL READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO WEST INTO THE TEENS EAST. WORSE CONDITIONS
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 27 INTO COLORADO. TEENS AREA-WIDE FOR
READINGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND READINGS IN THE 20S EXPECTED AREA-WIDE
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 950 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2024
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 12KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30KTS THROUGH 23Z. FROM 00Z-07Z, SOUTHERLY WINDS 12-16KTS
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED. AFTER 08Z, SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25KTS VEER TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND
DECREASE BELOW 10KTS.
KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 09Z. WINDS AT
TAF ISSUANCE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 11KTS, INCREASING THROUGH
22Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS. FROM 23Z-08Z, SOUTHEAST WINDS FALL
BELOW 12KTS. FROM 10Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD,
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME FOG WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WIND. PRESENTLY, HAVE HINTED AT LOWER CLOUD BASES BUT KEPT THE
TAF VFR FOR THE TIME BEING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99
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