006
FXUS63 KGLD 152308
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
408 PM MST FRI NOV 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- BENIGN WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY. AREAS WITH SNOW COVER (FAR WESTERN KIT
CARSON/CHEYENNE COUNTIES, CO) WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
- ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MST FRI NOV 15 2024
TONIGHT...A STRATUS DECK IS FORECAST BY THE NAM AND LESSER EXTENT
THE GFS (PER BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS) TO EXTEND
FROM HITCHCOCK COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH WICHITA COUNTY A FEW HOURS
PRIOR TO SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, THE SKY SHOULD BE
GENERALLY CLEAR. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE MIDDLE 30S TO
LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADA
BORDER AND OVER WESTERN MEXICO. MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING,
LEAVING A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. OVERNIGHT, SOME MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S OVER
SNOW COVERED AREAS IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO THE 50S AND 60S OUTSIDE
OF THE SNOW COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER
20S TO MIDDLE 30S.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN MEXICO IN THE
MORNING LIFTS NORTHEAST TO THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER BY 12Z
MONDAY, ABUNDANT LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD AND INTO
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL CHANCES OF 20% TO 50% EXTEND SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK TO FLAGLER BUT COULD BE A BIT TOO FAR NORTH.
LATER FORECASTS WILL FINE TUNE THE NORTHERN EXTENT AS WE GET MORE
MODEL DATA IN. DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE RAIN. THERE
COULD BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT QUITE
WARMED ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS ALL RAIN. HOPEFULLY, LATER MODEL
RUNS CAN BE MORE SPECIFIC WITH THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WHICH
WILL DICTATE RAIN AND/OR FREEZING RAIN CHANCES AND LOCATION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S AND 50S, COLDEST
OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS IN EASTERN COLORADO. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO AROUND 40.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO THE
NORTHEAST, REACHING THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AROUND 18Z THEN NORTHEAST
KANSAS BY 00Z TUESDAY. WE'LL BE IN WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION WITH
CHANCES IN THE 20%-90% RANGE DURING THE DAY, HIGHEST ACROSS
NORTON/GRAHAM COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT, RAINFALL CHANCES QUICKLY END BY
MID EVENING AS THE STORM CONTINUES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 PM MST FRI NOV 15 2024
COMPARING THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME AS
A 500/700MB SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION, FOLLOWED BY
AMPLIFIED RIDGING AT 500MB MOVING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE TWO MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE, BUT THE OVERALL CONSENSUS WILL BE
TO CARRY THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE CWA.
AT THE SURFACE, THE PASSING OF THE STRONG SYSTEM AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO A STRONG RIDGE THAT BUILDS SOUTHEAST OFF
THE ROCKIES IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM. THE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
THE RIDGE WILL CREATE A STRONG NW FLOW THAT WILL PERSIST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTS COULD APPROACH THE 25-35 MPH RANGE,
ESPECIALLY IN COLORADO. THE EXPECTED WIND FLOW WILL CREATE SOME
UPSLOPE EFFECTS IN COLORADO AND COMBINED WITH THE 500/700MB
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE, THERE IS A 15-20% CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
TO OCCUR. LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS, WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.
WHAT IS GOING TO OCCUR IN ADDITION TO THE LIMITED SNOWFALL POTENTIAL
WILL BE COLD WIND CHILL READINGS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SKIES AREA EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM 06Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD, PROVIDING
AMPLE RADIATIONAL COOLING TO CREATE COLD WIND CHILL READINGS W/ THE
WIND. 850MB TEMPS WILL FLOAT WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO AROUND 0C DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND DROPPING INTO THE -1C TO -2C
RANGE AREA-WIDE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST BEGINS
ITS TREK INTO/THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE PLAINS REGION PROVIDING THE AREA WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.
FOR TEMPS, HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE BELOW NORMAL W/
WARMEST AREAS ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. WESTERN PORTIONS OF KIT
CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN COLORADO MAY ONLY GET INTO THE UPPER
30S AT BEST DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SNOWPACK REMAINING IN THE AREA.
GOING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BACK TO NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS
WITH 50S AREA-WIDE. SOME LOCALES FRIDAY MAY APPROACH THE 60F MARK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH
COLDEST SPOTS ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. LOWER TO MID 20S EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, GIVING WAY TO MAINLY MID AND UPPER 20S FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS. THERE MIGHT BE A FEW SPOTS THAT MAY ONLY
DROP TO THE 30F MARK THESE NIGHTS.
WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WIND CHILL READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO WEST INTO THE TEENS EAST. WORSE CONDITIONS
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 27 INTO COLORADO. TEENS AREA-WIDE FOR
READINGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND READINGS IN THE 20S EXPECTED AREA-WIDE
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 402 PM MST FRI NOV 15 2024
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE LLWS AT EACH TERMINAL
AS A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
IN LLWS DEVELOPING AT EACH TERMINAL AS A 50-60 KNOT LLJ DEVELOPS
WITH THE STRONGEST CURRENTLY FAVORING KMCK. ANY LLWS IS
FORECAST TO END AROUND 10-12Z. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY
FROM THE SSE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR A PERIOD OF STRATUS OR FOG AT KMCK AROUND 12Z AS
THERE IS A SUBTLE SIGNAL, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...TRIGG
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