998
FXUS63 KGLD 161030
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
330 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- BENIGN WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY. AREAS WITH SNOW COVER (FAR WESTERN KIT
CARSON/CHEYENNE COUNTIES, CO) WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN (~1") POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER AND/OR
APPRECIABLE IMPACTS ARE PRESENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED.
- NEAR 0F WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WESTERN
CWA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2024
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: AN AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN, BROADLY
CHARACTERIZED BY TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WILL PREVAIL IN THIS PERIOD.
TODAY: GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT -- [1] THE
SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
SEVERED FROM THE MAIN BELT OF MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES..
RESULTING IN SLOWER FORWARD (EASTWARD) PROGRESS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/DESERT SOUTHWEST AND, ULTIMATELY, THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW INVOF BAJA, CA BY 12Z SUN AND -- [2]
THAT THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE TROUGH, STILL ENTANGLED IN
THE MID- LATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER THE PAC NW AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES, WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS (TODAY)
AND ENE INTO ONTARIO (TONIGHT). IN OTHER WORDS, THE PORTION OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BE
INCREASINGLY SHEARED/DEFORMED AND THE PREVIOUSLY WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL /SURFACE TO 850 MB/ TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL DECAY AND FALL INTO A STATE OF DISARRAY TODAY --
RESULTING IN A NEBULOUS LOW-LEVEL PATTERN GENERALLY
CHARACTERIZED BY LIGHT WINDS AND NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION.
GIVEN THAT THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL BE IN RELATIVE CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE NORTHERN /PROGRESSIVE/ PORTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH.. A MODEST NORTHERLY BREEZE /PERIOD OF WEAK COLD
ADVECTION/ IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EITHER WAY,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY ANALOGOUS TO YESTERDAY -- COOLEST IN
AREAS WITH LINGERING SNOW COVER (I.E. FAR WESTERN KIT
CARSON/CHEYENNE COUNTIES, CO).
SUNDAY: A NEBULOUS /ILL-DEFINED/ PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE
TRI-STATE AREA IN THIS PERIOD.. AS THE NORTHERNMOST
/PROGRESSIVE/ PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO ONTARIO AND THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION /NEWLY DEVELOPED
CLOSED LOW INVOF BAJA, CA/ DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.
IN THE WAKE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION (TONIGHT).. EXPECT
RELATIVELY COOLER (ALBEIT NEAR-AVERAGE) TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.
MONDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW IN NORTHERN MEXICO -- AND
AN ASSOCIATED MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE -- WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NNE
FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS (~12Z MON) TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY (~00Z
TUE). GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING
AND NORTHWARD MOTION OF THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID-
LATITUDE CYCLONE, THOUGH.. SOME UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS W/REGARD TO
EXACTLY WHERE /LONGITUDE-WISE/ THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK (E.G.
THROUGH CENTRAL KS OR EASTERN KS) ALONG WITH A FEW DETAILS ON
CYCLONE CONSOLIDATION AND MATURATION.. WHICH MAY, IN PART, BE A
FUNCTION OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK /LATENT HEAT RELEASE/ OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. IF THE CYCLONE TRACK IS ON THE WESTERN END OF
THE ENVELOPE (ALTUS => WOODWARD => SALINA, SIMILAR TO THE 00Z
ECMWF SOLUTION) -- HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IF THE CYCLONE TRACK
IS ON THE EASTERN END OF THE ENVELOPE (KINGFISHER => WICHITA =>
MANHATTAN, SIMILAR TO THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION) -- MEASURABLE
RAINFALL MAY NOT EVEN BE OBSERVED IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. REGARDLESS, HAZARDOUS WEATHER AND/OR
APPRECIABLE IMPACTS ARE PRESENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE
GOODLAND CWA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 134 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2024
THE LONG-TERM WILL BEGIN UNDER A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH
AN AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IN THE LOWER-
LEVELS, A CLOSED LOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN MID-WEST. THIS
LOW WILL WILL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
MOISTURE, COMBINED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHING THROUGH THE
REGION COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS TO
SEE THESE SHOWERS WILL BE IN OUR COLORADO COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS; THE WESTERN CWA WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S
WHILE THE EASTERN CWA WILL WARM INTO THE MID 40S.
DUE TO A MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 35
KTS TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO DROP FOR THE 50 KTS WIND
GUSTS, NOW DOWN TO AROUND 15-20% CONFIDENCE. OVERNIGHT, 10-20
KTS SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN OUR COLORADO
COUNTIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS AROUND 0-5F NEAR THE
FLAGLER AND KIT CARSON AREAS, POTENTIALLY SPREADING FURTHER
EAST.
THE TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO CLEAR THE CWA WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL WORK TO CALM DOWN OUR
PATTERN AND LEAD TO A WARMING TREND. WEDNESDAY, NEARLY ALL OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL WARM INTO THE 40S WITH THE EASTERN
PORTIONS NEARING 50. THE TREND CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN THE
CWA WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM SLIGHTLY, BUT THE RIDGE WILL PREVENT MANY CLOUDS FROM
FORMING. COMBINED WITH WEAK WINDS, OVERNIGHT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL KEEP COOLING US TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S EACH NIGHT.
LIST OF ACRONYMS:
F - FAHRENHEIT
MB - MILLIBAR
KTS - KNOTS
Z - ZULU TIME (UTC)
CWA - COUNTY WARNING AREA
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS. S TO SSW WINDS AT 15-25 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE WSW
AND DECREASE TO ~7-12 KNOTS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.. AS
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N-NNW AND
INCREASE TO ~12-17 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING / EARLY AFTERNOON
(~17-18 UTC).. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...VINCENT
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