337
FXUS63 KGLD 171940
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1240 PM MST SUN NOV 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW. LOCALES
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NORTON TO OAKLEY COULD
SEE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN WITH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
SEEING A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS. THERE IS FORECAST TO
BE A FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE AREA.
- WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45
MPH FOR MUCH OF MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NEAR 0F WIND CHILLS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WESTERN CWA.
- MILD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM MST SUN NOV 17 2024
CURRENT SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LOW/TROUGH NEAR THE BAJA
PENINSULA WITH A LARGER TROUGH BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST.
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES, MOISTURE IS STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, WITH A FEW SHOWERS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA.
WITH THESE FEATURES PUSHING EAST, THE SHOWERS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF
THE AREA AND ALLOW THE TRI-STATE AREA TO STAY MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40'S AND 50'S. TONIGHT, THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE
BAJA PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN PUSHING NORTHEAST AND BRING A
SURFACE LOW UP FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL. WITH THIS, CLOUD COVER IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 40. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20'S AND 30'S
BEFORE THE CLOUD COVER MOVES IN, AND THEN STABILIZE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN SHIFTING TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW NEARS THE
AREA.
TOMORROW, THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
KANSAS. WITH THE MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOW,
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH MAYBE SOME
SUNSHINE PEAKING THROUGH FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. THE
TRACKS AS A WHOLE HAVE SHIFTED EAST COMPARED TO PRIOR FORECASTS.
THIS HAS LOWERED CONFIDENCE IN THE AREA RECEIVING THE HIGHER RAIN
TOTALS AND ALSO LOWERED CONFIDENCE THAT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL SEE ANY RAIN AT ALL. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR AROUND HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN FROM NORTON TO OAKLEY AND LOCALES EAST. THE
REST OF NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA WOULD LIKELY SEE ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS, TO MAYBE HALF AN INCH. WHILE THE CURRENT DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVOR THE EASTERN TRACK, THERE ARE
STILL A FEW SOLUTIONS THAT TRACK SLOWER OR FURTHER WEST AND ALLOW
FOR MAIN RAINFALL IN THE AREA. OVERALL CHANCES FOR THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS (1-2" IN THE EAST AND 0.5-1" FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
AREA) IS CURRENTLY AROUND 20%. CURRENTLY, THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
CONCERN FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WITH DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO
GENERALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING, AND WITH A LARGE ENOUGH WARM LAYER NEAR
THE SURFACE TO MELT ANY FROZEN HYDROMETEORS INTO RAIN. LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WHERE THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
RAIN TO DEVELOP (GENERALLY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AND WEST). EVEN
WITH THE MORE WESTERLY TRACK, THE WARMER NEAR SURFACE AREA AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WOULD ALSO SHIFT WEST AND KEEP THE CHANCE VERY LOW
FOR FREEZING RAIN OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY STAY IN THE 40'S, AS TEMPERATURES
MAY NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE DAY WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND
LITTLE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING NEARBY. HOWEVER, THE WINDS ABOVE
20 MPH AND WIND GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH MAY STAY CONFINED TO HIGHWAY 25
AND EAST AS THE FURTHER EAST TRACK KEEPS THE STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS, AND LESS INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA. FOR
THE LOCALES WITH THE STRONGER WINDS, GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. THERE IS ABOUT A 15% CHANCE FOR
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 50-60 MPH, DEPENDING ON IF THE SHOWERS CAN
HELP BRING THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.
TOMORROW NIGHT, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STAY AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY COMPACT WITH
THE SURFACE LOW NEARBY AND WITH THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO
SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LOWS ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO REACH
THE 20'S AND 30'S.
TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE A FAIRLY COOL DAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE AREA, THERE IS AROUND A 5 TO 10% CHANCE
FOR A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
LINGERS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE PLAINS.
OTHERWISE, A MIX OF SUNNY AND CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH THE COOLER AIR
MASS ARE FORECAST TO KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40'S. WITH THE
SECOND TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH AND THE HIGHER PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE AREA, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN A BIT STRONG AT 15-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH SKIES CLEARING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. EVEN WITH THE BREEZY
WINDS, THE DRIER AIR PUSHING IN WITH COLD AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO
HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20'S. WINDS CHILLS
COULD DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM MST SUN NOV 17 2024
FOR THE LONG TERM, A FAIRLY MILD PATTER IS FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH THE UPPER TROUGHS PUSHED OFF, THE
REST OF THE WEEK IS FORECAST TO SEE SOME RIDGING ALOFT. WITH THIS,
THE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BY WED/THU AND TEMPERATURES MODERATE. HIGHS
ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 50'S AND 60'S WITH LOWS IN THE
20'S AND 30'S.
THIS PATTERN MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT SOME GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THIS COULD
PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT
NOTHING TOO EXCITING AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MST SUN NOV 17 2024
FOR KGLD... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 7 KTS OR LESS THROUGH 12Z.
TOMORROW MORNING, THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE
AN ISOLATED STORM AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NEAR THE AREA.
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL.
FOR KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 7 KTS OR LESS AND COULD VARY IN
DIRECTION AFTER 21Z. AROUND 12-15Z, A LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO BEGIN PUSHING RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE TERMINAL. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM MAY ALSO MOVE THROUGH. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST OR REMAIN NEAR THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. IN REGARD TO AMD NOT SKED... THERE IS AN ONGOING
ISSUE WITH THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT THE AIRPORT. WHILE NO
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST UNTIL THE RAIN
MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW, BE ADVISED THAT WE WILL HAVE LIMITED
OBSERVATIONS WITH VISIBILITY AND MAY NOT BE ABLE TO AMEND IF A
LOCALIZED REDUCTION OCCURS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KAK
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