332
FXUS63 KGLD 190830
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
130 AM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY.
- TUESDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO BE ONE OF THE COOLER NIGHTS OF
THE SEASON SO FAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20'S.
PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO MAY SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS.
- MILD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 130 PM MST MON NOV 18 2024
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER WEST-
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE SURFACE LOW ROUGHLY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.
THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND END OUR RAIN CHANCES BY THE EARLY
EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL TENTH TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE,
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
TONIGHT, SKIES ARE FORECAST TO CLEAR AS THE MOISTURE PUSHES EAST
WITH THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED AROUND 10-20 MPH AS HIGHER PRESSURE BEGINS TO
TRY AND MOVE IN FROM THE WEST, KEEPING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ROUGHLY
THE SAME AS IT IS NOW. WITH THIS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY COOL
INTO THE 20'S AND 30'S WITH THE WINDS KEEPING THE LOW LEVELS MIXED
AND LITTLE TO NO COLD AIR ADVECTION.
TOMORROW, THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE
PLAINS. AS IT SWINGS THROUGH, IT IS FORECAST TO BRING SOME MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE (AROUND 700-500MB) THROUGH THE AREA. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES TO FORM AS CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
LITTLE LIFT MAY BE PRESENT, BUT VERY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE THAT
WOULD EVAPORATE MOST RAIN DROPS AND SNOWFLAKES. OTHERWISE, WITH
HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR OVER THE AREA, HIGHS WILL
CREEP UP INTO THE 40'S WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH THE UPPER TROUGHS EAST OF THE AREA, THE FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO MORE OF A ZONAL/RIDGING FLOW ALOFT. THE
HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR ARE ALSO FORECAST TO HAVE
MOVED FULLY INTO THE AREA. THIS AIR MASS IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE DRY
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AND DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS. AS LONG AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HOLD AND WINDS
REMAIN AROUND 10-15 MPH, TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY COOL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20'S. IF THE WINDS LIGHTEN ANY MORE THAN FORECAST, PARTS
OF EASTERN COLORADO AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY SEE TEMPERATURES REACH
THE SINGLE DIGITS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 AM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. BEHIND THE RIDGE AXIS, ZONAL FLOW
ON SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH
MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDES THE ONLY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS SHOW THIS
SYSTEM AS A BROAD, OPEN WAVE WHICH SHOULD ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT
SNOW AND MINIMAL IMPACTS AS IT MOVES ACROSS.
THE TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE PERIOD SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH COOLER AIR
GRADUALLY FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE FELT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S AND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WINDS LOOK TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 930 PM MST MON NOV 18 2024
FOR KGLD, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE AROUND THE TERMINAL
FROM 14Z-20Z, WITH NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS, NORTHWEST
15-30KTS BECOMING WESTERLY BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. LLWS WILL IMPACT
THE TERMINAL FROM 06Z-20Z WEDNESDAY AROUND 330@45-55KTS. WORSE
CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z.
FOR KMCK, VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FROM 16Z-22Z WITH NO IMPACT TO
VISIBILITY. WINDS, NORTHWEST AROUND 15-25KTS, SHIFTING LOWER TO
AROUND 10-15KTS FROM 22Z ONWARD. LLWS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL
THROUGH 16Z WEDNESDAY WITH 310@50-60KTS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN
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