069
FXUS63 KGLD 191916
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1216 PM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FLURRIES ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO. OTHERWISE, DRY
FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
- WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TONIGHT
ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO.
- SLOWLY WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES (ABOVE NORMAL) WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY THEN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO BEGIN THE
NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 833 AM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
BROUGHT IN A BIT OF A WIDER RANGE OF SPRINKLES AND
FLURRIES(COLORADO THIS MORNING) AS THERE CONSISTENTLY HAS BEEN
MOISTURE IN THE 700-500MB LAYER AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION ALONG A 700MB FGEN FOR ADDED FORCING. DUE TO THE
DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND CONTINUED DRY AIR PUSHING IN THIS
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SHOWERS/ SNOW SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING SOUTHERN CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO AS DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE THE LOWEST SO. BASED ON RAP AND NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOULD ANY PRECIPITATION OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN
CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO WET BULBING WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW TO
OCCUR.
I ALSO DID LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MORE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE (CO) COUNTIES AS WINDS LOOK TO
LIGHTEN TO AROUND 6-8 KNOTS AFTER 09Z WHICH WOULD SUPPORT VERY
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AIR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND WIND CHILLS
FALLING BELOW 0, PERHAPS EVEN LOCALLY AS LOW AS -10 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
TODAY-TONIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF OF THE COLORADO FRONT
RANGE AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING, CONTINUING EAST
AND OUT OF THE AREA AROUND SUNSET. MOISTURE IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO
THE 700-500MB LAYER. PRIOR FORECASTS HAD A MENTION OF SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPORT TO
CONTINUE THE MENTION AS 850-700 AND 700-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO POTENTIALLY SUPPORT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER
OCCURRENCE. BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30S ACROSS PARTS OF FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WHERE SNOW COVER REMAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE READINGS IN THE 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER TEENS GENERALLY WEST OF A
LINE FROM BURLINGTON TO TRIBUNE WITH 20S ELSEWHERE. IF THE WINDS ARE
LESS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER GIVEN
DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WIND CHILL READINGS MAY
FLIRT WITH ZERO DEGREES ACROSS THE FLAGLER AREA AND POINTS SOUTH
INTO FAR WESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY (CO).
WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN THE BREEZY TO WINDY CATEGORY
DURING THE DAY GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 27 WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND UP TO 10 MPH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S, A GREAT BLEND OF THE
BETTER PERFORMING TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AND INCREASE IN NAM/GFS 850MB
TEMPERATURES. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 20S.
THURSDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST. NAM/GFS 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE ANOTHER 4F TO 6F COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY AND ARE
RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE BETTER PERFORMING TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TO
PRODUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 20S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY MILD WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, WINDS
GENERALLY AROUND 10-15 MPH, HIGHS IN THE 50'S/60'S, AND LOWS IN THE
20'S ARE FORECAST BOTH DAYS.
SUNDAY, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. IF THE SHORTWAVE DOES DEVELOP, A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVE THROUGH,
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER, THE ENSEMBLES ARE FAVORING A NORTHERN TRACK FOR THE
SHORTWAVE WHICH MAY LEAD TO THE LOW PRESSURE BEING WEAK AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA, PROVIDING LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURE. THE
CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS HIGHS IN THE 50'S. IN REGARD TO
PRECIPITATION, EVEN A FAVORABLE TRACK MAY ONLY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS
AS RELATIVELY DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA.
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
DEPEND ON HOW STRONG THE SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY WAS WITH HIGHS EITHER
IN THE 40'S OR 50'S. AROUND TUESDAY, A LARGER TROUGH IS HINTED TO
BEGIN SETTING UP OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. IF THIS OCCURS,
TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY STAY A BIT ON THE COOLER SIDE (HIGHS IN
THE 40'S OR LESS) AND THERE WOULD BE A FEW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE, THE SYSTEM MAY NOT FORM UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEK AND ALLOW MILD CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. ENSEMBLES ARE SPLIT, BUT
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THE COOLER SOLUTIONS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 953 AM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED THROUGH THE DURATION OF THIS TAF
PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
AT KGLD. TODAY'S SYSTEM WILL BE QUICK MOVING WITH THE CLOUDS
CLEARING OUT AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY HOWEVER GUSTING
AROUND 25-30 KNOTS AS A NW TO SE ORIENTED JET DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE REGION AND WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT LEADING TO LLWS AT
EACH TERMINAL. ONCE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION ERODES WEDNESDAY
MORNING THE BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...TRIGG
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...TRIGG
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