622
FXUS63 KGLD 210915
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
215 AM MST THU NOV 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLOW WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR MANY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LIMITED TO THE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME PRESENTLY WITH ONLY 20 PERCENT TO 30
PERCENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 215 AM MST THU NOV 21 2024
TODAY-TONIGHT...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
UNDER SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE IN
THE 30S TO AROUND 40 IN SNOW COVERED AREAS ACROSS PARTS OF
CHEYENNE/KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN COLORADO TO THE MIDDLE 50S ALONG
HIGHWAY 27. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 20S.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...WE REMAIN UNDER BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S AND 60S,
WARMEST ALONG HIGHWAYS 25 AND 27 AND COOLEST ACROSS SNOW COVERED
AREAS OF CHEYENNE/KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN COLORADO. LOW TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...500MB FLOW SHIFTS TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS A
LARGE SCALE TROUGH BROADENS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THERE
WILL BE A BIT MORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS PER NAM/GFS/ECMWF 500-
300/300MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 60 TO 65
DEGREE RANGE WITH LOWER 50S ACROSS SNOW COVERED AREAS OF
CHEYENNE/KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN COLORADO. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY SPEAKING, 500MB FLOW REMAINS FROM
THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST. CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY REMAINS AT
CIRRUS LEVEL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.
OVERNIGHT, THE GFS/GEM MODELS SHOW SOME BETTER MOISTURE IN THE 850-
500MB LAYER MOVING SOUTH TOWARD YUMA COUNTY WITH THE ECMWF MODELS
SHOWING LESS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. PRESENTLY, THE FORECAST IS
TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS/GEM MODELS WITH A 20% CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 AM MST THU NOV 21 2024
DRY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. MODELS IN POOR
AGREEMENT ON HOW THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES MIDWEEK WILL EVOLVE. GFS SHOWS A FAST MOVING OPEN WAVE
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF
SHOWS THE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS, PHASING
WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC COAST, BEFORE KICKING OUT
LATER IN THE WEEK. GFS IMPACTS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL WITH JUST A
FEW SHOWERS/FLURRIES, BUT THE ECMWF IMPACTS WOULD SEE MORE SNOW
WHICH WOULD LINGER INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. CONFIDENCE IN EITHER
SOLUTION, OR THE MANY OTHER SOLUTIONS OFFERED UP BY VARIOUS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME RANGE AND IN THIS
PATTERN. BLENDED FORECAST YIELDS SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 AM MST THU NOV 21 2024
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 19Z
THEN BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SPEEDS UNDER 11KTS.
KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99
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