526
FXUS63 KGLD 151710
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1010 AM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS RED WILLOW, DECATUR,
NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES.
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON WEST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON TO GOODLAND AND
BURLINGTON.
- NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
TODAY-TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT EXTENDS AS FAR WEST AS RED
WILLOW TO NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. EAST OF THE
FRONT THERE IS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND NEAR DENSE FREEZING FOG WITH
VISIBILITIES GENERALLY 1/4-1/2 MILE. THIS THREAT WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM CST OR SO BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING EAST
AND OUT OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S. WITH RATHER DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE LOW HUMIDITY AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON TO GOODLAND AND BURLINGTON.
TONIGHT, A CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
TO UPPER 20S.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...500MB FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. IT WILL BE SUNNY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 20S UNDER
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
WITH SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST, GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO AROUND 20.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 105 AM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
NORTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN IS ESSENTIALLY SIMILAR TO THE SAME THAT
THE REGION HAS BEEN IN FOR THE PAST MONTH OR SO. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR MILD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
OVERALL, MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN FORECAST FOR THE TRI-
STATE AREA THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEKEND. I DID NUDGE
TEMPERATURES UP FRIDAY MORNING AND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE ON FRIDAY
DUE TO THE FORECASTED SW WIND BETWEEN THE 210-250 DEGREE RANGE WHICH
CLIMATOLOGICALLY LEADS TO WARMER THAN FORECAST TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S ARE FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S IN WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FORECASTED ALTHOUGH A
BRIEF DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW WOULD AT THE MINIMUM BRING A
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES TO THE AREA, IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN
FRIDAY NIGHT WOULD HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS HOWEVER INCONSISTENCY WITHIN
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF FAR EAST/WEST THIS SYSTEM WILL BE.
WITH ALL OF THAT SAID, SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO TRY TO KEEP THE
OVERALL THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WEST RESULTING
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN CASE SOMETHING SIMILAR OCCURS TO
WHAT OCCURRED THIS PAST FRIDAY WHERE MORE AND MORE MEMBERS
STARTED PICKING UP ON THE POTENTIAL FOR COLDER AIR TO BREAK OFF
FROM THE COLD AIR MASS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND SITUATE
ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME THE CHANCES OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES IS AROUND 10% OF OCCURRING. THERE IS HOWEVER A
HANDFUL OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GEFS THAT DOES HAVE
SOMETHING SIMILAR OCCURRING SATURDAY SO HAVE NUDGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS DRY BUT WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY POTENTIAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES THAT MAY PRESENT ITSELF WITHIN THE FLOW AS GUIDANCE
TYPICALLY STRUGGLES WITH THESE FEATURES AT THIS RANGE. TOWARDS
THE START OF THE CHRISTMAS TRAVEL WEEK THERE ARE SOME SIGNS IN
GUIDANCE INCLUDING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT TRIES TO BRING A QUICK
MOVING SYSTEM THROUGH TO START THE WEEK BUT WITH IT THAT FAR
OUT IT IS JUST SOMETHING TO MONITOR AT THIS POINT AS DETAILS AND
SPECIFICS VARY WITH GUIDANCE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1009 AM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. TONIGHT, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP AT BOTH SITES
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE
LLWS WILL END AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON TO GOODLAND AND
BURLINGTON. IN THESE AREAS, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 35
MPH.
ON MONDAY, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN NEAR 20 PERCENT. WINDS
HOWEVER WILL BE LIGHTER.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT
THIS TIME. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY FALL TO BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS WEDNESDAY THEN RETURN BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...024
FIRE WEATHER...99
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