153
FXUS63 KGLD 152027
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
127 PM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS RED WILLOW, DECATUR,
NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES.
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON WEST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON TO GOODLAND AND
BURLINGTON.
- NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
TODAY-TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT EXTENDS AS FAR WEST AS
RED WILLOW TO NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
EAST OF THE FRONT THERE IS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND NEAR DENSE
FREEZING FOG WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY 1/4-1/2 MILE. THIS
THREAT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM CST OR SO BEFORE
SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S. WITH RATHER DRY
AIR AT THE SURFACE AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES,
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE LOW
HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON TO GOODLAND
AND BURLINGTON.
TONIGHT, A CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO UPPER 20S.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...500MB FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. IT WILL BE
SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE 20S UNDER INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH WITH SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST, GUSTING 25 TO 35
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. HIGH TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE
TEENS TO AROUND 20.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A LESS-
PROGRESSIVE /BLOCKED/ SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER NORTH
AMERICA LATE THIS WEEK AS A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND DEEP TROUGHING /CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT/ ENVELOPES THE EASTERN CONUS -- A PATTERN OFTEN
ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC OUTBREAKS IN THE EASTERN US. IN SUCH A
SETUP, THE HIGH PLAINS (GEOGRAPHICAL AREA IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES) WILL BE SITUATED AT AN 'INFLECTION POINT'
BETWEEN THE PRONOUNCED RIDGE (TO THE WEST) AND PRONOUNCED TROUGH
(TO THE EAST) -- A REGION CHARACTERIZED BY NW FLOW ALOFT AND
PROFOUND SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE -- A REGION THAT'S TYPICALLY ON THE
FAR WESTERN FRINGE OF.. OR ALTOGETHER REMOVED FROM.. INTRUDING
ARCTIC AIRMASSES.
BOTTOM LINE: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
LONG TERM PERIOD (DECEMBER 19-22). HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE
AVERAGE OR NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA (I.E. EASTERN COLORADO) ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1009 AM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. TONIGHT, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP AT BOTH SITES
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE
LLWS WILL END AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...024
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