444
FXUS63 KGLD 152322
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
422 PM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS,
HOWEVER STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE
SURFACE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S. MONDAY WILL SEE
SUBTLE RIDGING ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY
SOME ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION, BUT AFTER A MILD DAY ON TUESDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S. THE WESTERN RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER MILD DAY AND LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A LESS-
PROGRESSIVE /BLOCKED/ SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER NORTH
AMERICA LATE THIS WEEK AS A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND DEEP TROUGHING /CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT/ ENVELOPES THE EASTERN CONUS -- A PATTERN OFTEN
ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC OUTBREAKS IN THE EASTERN US. IN SUCH A
SETUP, THE HIGH PLAINS (GEOGRAPHICAL AREA IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES) WILL BE SITUATED AT AN 'INFLECTION POINT'
BETWEEN THE PRONOUNCED RIDGE (TO THE WEST) AND PRONOUNCED TROUGH
(TO THE EAST) -- A REGION CHARACTERIZED BY NW FLOW ALOFT AND
PROFOUND SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE -- A REGION THAT'S TYPICALLY ON THE
FAR WESTERN FRINGE OF.. OR ALTOGETHER REMOVED FROM.. INTRUDING
ARCTIC AIRMASSES.
BOTTOM LINE: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
LONG TERM PERIOD (DECEMBER 19-22). HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE
AVERAGE OR NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA (I.E. EASTERN COLORADO) ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 416 PM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT IT WILL BE A
WINDY TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL MID-DAY
TOMORROW FOR KGLD WHEN A SURFACE LOW WILL WEAKEN THE WINDS.
KMCK WILL SEE SOME WEAKENING WINDS AT THE TAIL END OF THE
PERIOD, BUT COULD BE PAST 0Z. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) IS
EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK DURING THE EVENING AND SOME OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LLWS MAY TEMPORARILY WEAKEN AROUND 3-5Z
AT KMCK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. A LOW LEVEL JET FROM THE
NORTHWEST IS TO THANK FOR THE LLWS AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...CA
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