140
FXUS63 KGLD 160805
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
105 AM MST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS,
HOWEVER STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE
SURFACE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S. MONDAY WILL SEE
SUBTLE RIDGING ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY
SOME ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION, BUT AFTER A MILD DAY ON TUESDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S. THE WESTERN RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER MILD DAY AND LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 104 AM MST MON DEC 16 2024
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH MAY BRING SOME BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AND A COLD FRONT
TO THE TRI-STATE AREA. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BRING AN 35-40 KNOT 850MB
JET ACROSS THE AREA WHERE THE POTENTIAL LIES FOR SOME WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 MPH ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES AND UP TO 30 MPH
ELSEWHERE. SOME GEFS ENSEMBLES MEMBERS DO HAVE THE SYSTEM A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE WIND POTENTIAL AND
EXPAND THE COVERAGE TO THE WEST A LITTLE BIT. WILL ALSO NEED TO
WATCH FOR FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL AS WELL AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTED IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ALONG WITH
RH VALUES CURRENTLY FORECASTED IN THE LOW 20S. I DID BLEND IN
SOME GFS WINDS INTO THE FORECAST WHICH TYPICALLY DOES DO THE
BEST WITH AFTERNOON MIXING TO INCREASE WINDS A LITTLE MORE TO
MAKE IT MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF MY CURRENT EXPECTATIONS.
FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO BE A LITTLE COOLER IN WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECASTED IN THE LOW 40S TO THE
EAST AND MID 50S TO THE WEST. WINDS ACROSS THE WEST ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO A LEE TROUGH WHICH
WILL HELP THOSE AREAS WARM UP QUICKER AS WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECASTED IN THE FAVORED 210-250 DEGREE RANGE FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL. IT IS WORTH NOTING AS WELL THAT SOME
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO MOVE THROUGH A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND HAVE
IT LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THAT OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH AT THE MOMENT. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE MORE MILD TEMPERATURE PERSISTENCE FORECAST WHICH IS ALSO
FAVORED BY ENSEMBLES AS WELL FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S.
INTO THE START OF THE CHRISTMAS TRAVELING WEEK, THERE STILL REMAINS
A WEAK SIGNAL FOR A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA AS A SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE VICINITY. IT IS
WAY TO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN OR SEE IF THERE ARE ANY POTENTIAL
IMPACTS/IF ANY DUE TO THE LOW AND INCONSISTENT NATURE OF THIS
SIGNAL. FOR NOW I WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST DUE TO THE
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR (LLWS) WILL ALSO PERSIST AT KGLD UNTIL AROUND 12Z AND AT
KMCK UNTIL ABOUT 8Z. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, GUSTS HAVE NOT
BEEN VERY FREQUENT, BUT A ROUGE GUST OR TWO AROUND 25 KTS AT
BOTH SITES CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. KMCK
IS FORECAST TO SEE THE GUSTS MAKE A MORE FREQUENT COME BACK
BETWEEN 8-12Z AND THEN AGAIN AROUND 16-21Z. TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
A SURFACE LOW WILL WEAKEN WINDS AND MAKE THEM SOUTHERLY. KGLD
LOOKS TO HAVE STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN AROUND 3Z
TOMORROW.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...CA
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