433
FXUS63 KGLD 160905
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
205 AM MST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS BEING MET ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
- DRY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST MON DEC 16 2024
TODAY-TONIGHT...COOLER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND WILL LIMIT
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THICK
HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE 20S.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH GENERALLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK TO COLBY AND FLAGLER. HIGH TEMPERATURES
RISE BACK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UNDER SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, HIGH TEMPERATURES COOL A
FEW DEGREES WITH MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S CURRENTLY FORECAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE 20S
TO LOWER 30S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 104 AM MST MON DEC 16 2024
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH MAY BRING SOME BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AND A COLD FRONT
TO THE TRI-STATE AREA. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BRING AN 35-40 KNOT 850MB
JET ACROSS THE AREA WHERE THE POTENTIAL LIES FOR SOME WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 MPH ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES AND UP TO 30 MPH
ELSEWHERE. SOME GEFS ENSEMBLES MEMBERS DO HAVE THE SYSTEM A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE WIND POTENTIAL AND
EXPAND THE COVERAGE TO THE WEST A LITTLE BIT. WILL ALSO NEED TO
WATCH FOR FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL AS WELL AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTED IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ALONG WITH
RH VALUES CURRENTLY FORECASTED IN THE LOW 20S. I DID BLEND IN
SOME GFS WINDS INTO THE FORECAST WHICH TYPICALLY DOES DO THE
BEST WITH AFTERNOON MIXING TO INCREASE WINDS A LITTLE MORE TO
MAKE IT MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF MY CURRENT EXPECTATIONS.
FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO BE A LITTLE COOLER IN WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECASTED IN THE LOW 40S TO THE
EAST AND MID 50S TO THE WEST. WINDS ACROSS THE WEST ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO A LEE TROUGH WHICH
WILL HELP THOSE AREAS WARM UP QUICKER AS WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECASTED IN THE FAVORED 210-250 DEGREE RANGE FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL. IT IS WORTH NOTING AS WELL THAT SOME
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO MOVE THROUGH A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND HAVE
IT LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THAT OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH AT THE MOMENT. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE MORE MILD TEMPERATURE PERSISTENCE FORECAST WHICH IS ALSO
FAVORED BY ENSEMBLES AS WELL FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S.
INTO THE START OF THE CHRISTMAS TRAVELING WEEK, THERE STILL REMAINS
A WEAK SIGNAL FOR A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA AS A SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE VICINITY. IT IS
WAY TO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN OR SEE IF THERE ARE ANY POTENTIAL
IMPACTS/IF ANY DUE TO THE LOW AND INCONSISTENT NATURE OF THIS
SIGNAL. FOR NOW I WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST DUE TO THE
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST MON DEC 16 2024
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 20Z, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE (BACKING IN DIRECTION)
FROM 21Z-23Z. FROM 00Z-04Z, SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 10KTS ARE
FORECAST, INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS FROM 05Z-09Z. AFTER
10Z, SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS ARE FORECAST.
KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 11KTS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS
FROM 17Z-20Z. AFTER 21Z, WINDS QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
(GENERALLY BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT SPEEDS UP TO 6KTS).
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST MON DEC 16 2024
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25 TO 35 MPH COMBINE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IS LOW
TO MEDIUM ON NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS BEING MET.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99
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