571
FXUS63 KGLD 162021
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
121 PM MST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE TRI-BORDER
AREA WITH GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH POSSIBLE.
- BRIEF COOL DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING EAST OF
HIGHWAY 25 WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
- DRY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 115 PM MST MON DEC 16 2024
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, WILL SEE INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT WHICH MAY TRIM A FEW DEGREES OFF MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES. THEY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
TOMORROW, MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PERSIST WHICH MAY AGAIN KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A TAD. STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 50S.
BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS THERE WILL BE A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER
WINDS WHICH WILL TRY TO MIX TO THE SURFACE, FROM NORTHEAST
COLORADO INTO THE TRI-BORDER AREA, THOUGH WITH THE CLOUD COVER
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM AT BEST FOR FULL MIXING POTENTIAL.
NONETHELESS, HRRR SHOWING GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE IN THAT
AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. CLOUDS CLEAR AND
WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. WILL SEE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS BY THE
AFTERNOON. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S. THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES EVEN FURTHER ON THURSDAY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. IT WILL BE BREEZY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY APPEARS TO BE TOO HIGH FOR
ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT BRINGING IN COLDER AIR
EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. MAY SEE SOME FREEZING FOG WITH THAT FRONT
AS WELL.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 104 AM MST MON DEC 16 2024
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH MAY BRING SOME BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AND A COLD FRONT
TO THE TRI-STATE AREA. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BRING AN 35-40 KNOT 850MB
JET ACROSS THE AREA WHERE THE POTENTIAL LIES FOR SOME WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 MPH ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES AND UP TO 30 MPH
ELSEWHERE. SOME GEFS ENSEMBLES MEMBERS DO HAVE THE SYSTEM A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE WIND POTENTIAL AND
EXPAND THE COVERAGE TO THE WEST A LITTLE BIT. WILL ALSO NEED TO
WATCH FOR FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL AS WELL AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTED IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ALONG WITH
RH VALUES CURRENTLY FORECASTED IN THE LOW 20S. I DID BLEND IN
SOME GFS WINDS INTO THE FORECAST WHICH TYPICALLY DOES DO THE
BEST WITH AFTERNOON MIXING TO INCREASE WINDS A LITTLE MORE TO
MAKE IT MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF MY CURRENT EXPECTATIONS.
FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO BE A LITTLE COOLER IN WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECASTED IN THE LOW 40S TO THE
EAST AND MID 50S TO THE WEST. WINDS ACROSS THE WEST ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO A LEE TROUGH WHICH
WILL HELP THOSE AREAS WARM UP QUICKER AS WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECASTED IN THE FAVORED 210-250 DEGREE RANGE FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL. IT IS WORTH NOTING AS WELL THAT SOME
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO MOVE THROUGH A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND HAVE
IT LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THAT OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH AT THE MOMENT. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE MORE MILD TEMPERATURE PERSISTENCE FORECAST WHICH IS ALSO
FAVORED BY ENSEMBLES AS WELL FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S.
INTO THE START OF THE CHRISTMAS TRAVELING WEEK, THERE STILL REMAINS
A WEAK SIGNAL FOR A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA AS A SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE VICINITY. IT IS
WAY TO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN OR SEE IF THERE ARE ANY POTENTIAL
IMPACTS/IF ANY DUE TO THE LOW AND INCONSISTENT NATURE OF THIS
SIGNAL. FOR NOW I WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST DUE TO THE
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MST MON DEC 16 2024
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...024
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