089
FXUS63 KGLD 170513
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1013 PM MST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE TRI-BORDER
AREA WITH GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH POSSIBLE.
- BRIEF COOL DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING EAST OF
HIGHWAY 25 WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
- DRY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 115 PM MST MON DEC 16 2024
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, WILL SEE INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT WHICH MAY TRIM A FEW DEGREES OFF MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES. THEY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
TOMORROW, MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PERSIST WHICH MAY AGAIN KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A TAD. STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 50S.
BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS THERE WILL BE A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER
WINDS WHICH WILL TRY TO MIX TO THE SURFACE, FROM NORTHEAST
COLORADO INTO THE TRI-BORDER AREA, THOUGH WITH THE CLOUD COVER
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM AT BEST FOR FULL MIXING POTENTIAL.
NONETHELESS, HRRR SHOWING GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE IN THAT
AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. CLOUDS CLEAR AND
WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. WILL SEE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS BY THE
AFTERNOON. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S. THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES EVEN FURTHER ON THURSDAY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. IT WILL BE BREEZY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY APPEARS TO BE TOO HIGH FOR
ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT BRINGING IN COLDER AIR
EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. MAY SEE SOME FREEZING FOG WITH THAT FRONT
AS WELL.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 221 PM MST MON DEC 16 2024
FRI-SAT: LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A LESS-
PROGRESSIVE /BLOCKED/ SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER NORTH
AMERICA BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND DEEP TROUGHING
/CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT/ ENVELOPES THE EASTERN CONUS -- A PATTERN
OFTEN ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC OUTBREAKS IN THE EASTERN US. IN
SUCH A SETUP, THE HIGH PLAINS (GEOGRAPHICAL AREA IN THE
IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE ROCKIES) WILL BE SITUATED AT AN 'INFLECTION
POINT' BETWEEN THE PRONOUNCED RIDGE (TO THE WEST) AND
PRONOUNCED TROUGH (TO THE EAST) -- A REGION CHARACTERIZED BY NW
FLOW ALOFT AND PROFOUND SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE -- A REGION THAT'S
TYPICALLY ON THE FAR WESTERN FRINGE OF.. OR ALTOGETHER REMOVED
FROM.. INTRUDING ARCTIC AIRMASSES. BOTTOM LINE: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE OR NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (I.E. EASTERN COLORADO) ARE MOST
LIKELY TO SEE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
SUN-TUE: LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A DICHOTOMOUS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA EARLY NEXT WEEK.. IN THE SENSE THAT
(1) A PRONOUNCED RIDGE /BLOCK/ WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
WESTERN-CENTRAL CANADA AS (2) PERIODIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY -- ON
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE CYCLONIC
GYRE/VORTEX IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC (OVER THE BERING SEA,
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND GULF OF ALASKA) -- MOVING ASHORE THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ERODES, AND ULTIMATELY SUPPLANTS, THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE.. RESULTING IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE
WESTERN-CENTRAL CONUS (BENEATH THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN-CENTRAL
CANADA). IF THIS IS THE CASE, ONE WOULD EXPECT A RELATIVELY
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
MID-WEEK (XMAS EVE-DAY). IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT, A
PRONOUNCED AND PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER WESTERN-CENTRAL CANADA
WOULD ACT AS A BLOCKADE AGAINST ARCTIC AIRMASSES.. RESULTING IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE, IF ANY, POTENTIAL FOR
WINTER WEATHER. DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 955 PM MST MON DEC 16 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WIND IS STILL THE BIG FACTOR FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK.
KGLD IS EXPECTED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KTS UNTIL
ABOUT 9Z AND COULD SEE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) AROUND
15-18Z AS A COLD FRONT STARTS MOVING THROUGH. AROUND 18Z,
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AND GUSTS UP AROUND 30 KTS ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BEGIN SLOWLY WEAKENING AROUND 0Z. KMCK IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE LLWS UNTIL ABOUT 13Z AND HAVE A FEW PLEASANT
HOURS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AROUND 19Z IS WHEN
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AND START WEAKENING AROUND 3Z.
BOTH KMCK AND KGLD MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS UP AROUND 40 KTS AROUND
21Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...CA
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