527
FXUS63 KGLD 170816
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
116 AM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE TRI-BORDER
AREA WITH GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH POSSIBLE.
- BRIEF COOL DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING EAST OF
HIGHWAY 25 WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
- DRY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 115 PM MST MON DEC 16 2024
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, WILL SEE INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT WHICH MAY TRIM A FEW DEGREES OFF MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES. THEY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
TOMORROW, MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PERSIST WHICH MAY AGAIN KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A TAD. STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 50S.
BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS THERE WILL BE A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER
WINDS WHICH WILL TRY TO MIX TO THE SURFACE, FROM NORTHEAST
COLORADO INTO THE TRI-BORDER AREA, THOUGH WITH THE CLOUD COVER
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM AT BEST FOR FULL MIXING POTENTIAL.
NONETHELESS, HRRR SHOWING GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE IN THAT
AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. CLOUDS CLEAR AND
WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. WILL SEE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS BY THE
AFTERNOON. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S. THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES EVEN FURTHER ON THURSDAY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. IT WILL BE BREEZY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY APPEARS TO BE TOO HIGH FOR
ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT BRINGING IN COLDER AIR
EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. MAY SEE SOME FREEZING FOG WITH THAT FRONT
AS WELL.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 114 AM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE AT
THE START THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OUR MILD
AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD. FRIDAY, AT THIS
TIME, LOOKS TO BE POTENTIALLY THE COOLEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS A COOLER AIR MASS IN WAKE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY
WILL LEAD TO HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS
THE EAST. FURTHER WEST HOWEVER WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY AS A SURFACE TROUGH NUDGES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
INTO THE WEEKEND, ESSENTIALLY THE SAME SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE AS HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. I DID NUDGE HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN
A LITTLE AS GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE STARTING TO FAVOR A
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEEKEND WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 2-6
DEGREES C. CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH ON SATURDAY
WILL LEAD INTO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY THAT MAY PLAY A ROLE INTO THE
CHRISTMAS TRAVEL PERIOD.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS IS WHERE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIFFER IS WITH
THIS TROUGH. DETERMINISTIC WISE THE GFS WANTS TO TAKE THIS
SYSTEM DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND KEEP THE AREA DRY AND
MILD IN SPLIT FLOW. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THE WAVE
MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WHICH PHASES WITH THE SYNOPTIC WAVE AND
LEADS TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MID WEEK. ENSEMBLE WISE, THE
MAJORITY OF MEMBERS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS BUT THERE ARE A FEW WHO
DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EITHER ON OR
JUST AFTER THE HOLIDAY. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE I WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST DUE TO THE DISCREPANCIES AND
OVERALL WEAK SIGNAL OF PRECIPITATION VALUES IN EXCESS OF 0.01
INCHES. OVERALL IT STILL REMAINS TO FAR OUT TO PINPOINT ANY
POTENTIAL HAZARDS, IF ANY BUT FOR THOSE WHO HAVE TRAVEL PLANS
CONTINUE TO STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 955 PM MST MON DEC 16 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WIND IS STILL THE BIG FACTOR FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK.
KGLD IS EXPECTED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KTS UNTIL
ABOUT 9Z AND COULD SEE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) AROUND
15-18Z AS A COLD FRONT STARTS MOVING THROUGH. AROUND 18Z,
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AND GUSTS UP AROUND 30 KTS ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BEGIN SLOWLY WEAKENING AROUND 0Z. KMCK IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE LLWS UNTIL ABOUT 13Z AND HAVE A FEW PLEASANT
HOURS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AROUND 19Z IS WHEN
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AND START WEAKENING AROUND 3Z.
BOTH KMCK AND KGLD MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS UP AROUND 40 KTS AROUND
21Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...CA
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