259
FXUS63 KGLD 171103
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
403 AM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
OF 35-50 MPH POSSIBLE.
- BRIEF COOL DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING EAST OF
HIGHWAY 25 WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
- DRY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 258 AM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY AS
A VEIL OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH SITTING OVER EASTERN COLORADO, AND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR EAST, A MOSTLY SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA. THIS GRADIENT IS TIGHT ALONG THE TRI STATE BORDER WITH OBS
AS OF 100 AM MST SHOWING GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE.
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS FOR THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST MID LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, COMBINED WITH THE RAP40
500/700/850 MB HEIGHTS ARE SHOWING A SHORTWAVE AT 700/850MB WORKING
EAST OVER THE AREA, WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW AT 500MB. AT THE SURFACE,
A TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER EASTERN COLORADO, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EAST OF THE CWA.
FOR TODAY/TONIGHT, GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A LOW LEVEL JET AT 850MB ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A JET ON THE BACK SIDE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOOKING AT THE LATEST VAD
WIND PROFILER FROM OUR RADAR, WINDS ARE PEAKING IN THE LOW LEVELS
AROUND 30-40KTS, WHICH HAS TRANSLATED TO THE SURFACE MAINLY FOR
LOCALES EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE
850MB TROUGH. THESE WINDS WILL PUSH EAST OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING.
ANY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY WILL GIVE WAY TO A NW
FLOW AS THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST SHIFTS EAST IN TANDEM WITH
THE UPPER SUPPORT MOVING THROUGH. GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER POTENTIAL
MIXING DOWN OF THE BACK SIDE JET WITH SOME GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH
POSSIBLE BEFORE THIS TRANSLATES EAST BY THIS EVENING. NBM HOURLY
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW ANYONE GOING ABOUT 30KTS, BUT IS OFF BASED ON
CURRENT OBS, SO HAVE INCREASED NUMBERS SLIGHTLY FOR TODAY'S
FORECAST. SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW DECENT MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO HOLD UP OVERNIGHT, COMBINED WITH THE WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW.
GOING INTO WED/THU, AMPLIFIED 500MB RIDGE TO THE WEST PUTS NW FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. THIS TIMEFRAME EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY W/ NO SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW. AT THE SURFACE
THOUGH, A FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA PROVIDING DECENT SW FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY W/ GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO
THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CAA(COLD
AIR ADVECTION) TO WORK DOWN INTO EASTERN LOCALES, PROVIDING A COLD
NIGHT IN SOME AREAS. 850MB TEMPS AROUND 0C TO -3C GRAZE THESE AREAS,
WITH THE COLDEST REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE CWA.
FOR TEMPS, LOOKING FOR HIGHS TODAY TO RANGE IN THE 50S AREA-WIDE.
WARMEST LOCALES WILL BE BETWEEN HWY 385 IN THE WEST, AND HWY 25 IN
THE EAST. GOING INTO WEDNESDAY, SLIGHTLY COOLER W/ A WIDE RANGE FROM
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO MAINLY MID AND UPPER
50S FOR THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S(WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE TEENS). WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WARMER WITH
MID TO UPPER 20S EXPECTED(WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S). THURSDAY NIGHT, MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S EXPECTED, COLDEST
IN THE E/NE(WIND CHILL READINGS MAINLY IN THE TEENS, WITH SINGLE
NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO IN THE E/NE BY FRIDAY MORNING).
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 114 AM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE AT
THE START THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OUR MILD
AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD. FRIDAY, AT THIS
TIME, LOOKS TO BE POTENTIALLY THE COOLEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS A COOLER AIR MASS IN WAKE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY
WILL LEAD TO HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS
THE EAST. FURTHER WEST HOWEVER WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY AS A SURFACE TROUGH NUDGES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
INTO THE WEEKEND, ESSENTIALLY THE SAME SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE AS HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. I DID NUDGE HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN
A LITTLE AS GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE STARTING TO FAVOR A
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEEKEND WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 2-6
DEGREES C. CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH ON SATURDAY
WILL LEAD INTO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY THAT MAY PLAY A ROLE INTO THE
CHRISTMAS TRAVEL PERIOD.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS IS WHERE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIFFER IS WITH
THIS TROUGH. DETERMINISTIC WISE THE GFS WANTS TO TAKE THIS
SYSTEM DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND KEEP THE AREA DRY AND
MILD IN SPLIT FLOW. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THE WAVE
MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WHICH PHASES WITH THE SYNOPTIC WAVE AND
LEADS TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MID WEEK. ENSEMBLE WISE, THE
MAJORITY OF MEMBERS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS BUT THERE ARE A FEW WHO
DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EITHER ON OR
JUST AFTER THE HOLIDAY. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE I WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST DUE TO THE DISCREPANCIES AND
OVERALL WEAK SIGNAL OF PRECIPITATION VALUES IN EXCESS OF 0.01
INCHES. OVERALL IT STILL REMAINS TO FAR OUT TO PINPOINT ANY
POTENTIAL HAZARDS, IF ANY BUT FOR THOSE WHO HAVE TRAVEL PLANS
CONTINUE TO STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 402 AM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
FOR KGLD, LOOKING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD W/ MAINLY SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS,
WEST-SOUTHWEST 15-25KTS THROUGH 13Z-14Z THEN SHIFTING WEST AS A
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. BY 17Z, NORTH-NORTHWEST
15-25KTS, DOWN TO 10KTS BY 08Z WEDNESDAY. LLWS 17Z TUE-00Z WED
330@45KTS.
FOR KMCK, LOOKING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD W/ MAINLY BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS, SOUTHEAST
10-15KTS THROUGH 15Z, THEN LIGHT/VARIABLE. BY 18Z, BECOMING
NORTHWEST 10-15KTS. GUSTS TO 30KTS FROM 20Z TUE-04Z WED. LLWS
12Z-15Z TUESDAY 180@40KTS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...JN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page