247  
FXUS63 KGLD 171729  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
1029 AM MST TUE DEC 17 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS  
OF 35-50 MPH POSSIBLE.  
 
- BRIEF COOL DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING EAST OF  
HIGHWAY 25 WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.  
 
- DRY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/  
 
ISSUED AT 258 AM MST TUE DEC 17 2024  
 
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY AS  
A VEIL OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH A  
SURFACE TROUGH SITTING OVER EASTERN COLORADO, AND HIGH PRESSURE TO  
OUR EAST, A MOSTLY SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH  
THE AREA. THIS GRADIENT IS TIGHT ALONG THE TRI STATE BORDER WITH OBS  
AS OF 100 AM MST SHOWING GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES  
ARE IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE.  
 
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE  
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS FOR THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. THE  
LATEST MID LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, COMBINED WITH THE RAP40  
500/700/850 MB HEIGHTS ARE SHOWING A SHORTWAVE AT 700/850MB WORKING  
EAST OVER THE AREA, WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW AT 500MB. AT THE SURFACE,  
A TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER EASTERN COLORADO, WITH HIGH  
PRESSURE EAST OF THE CWA.  
 
FOR TODAY/TONIGHT, GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A LOW LEVEL JET AT 850MB ON  
THE EAST SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION  
THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A JET ON THE BACK SIDE FOR THIS AFTERNOON  
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOOKING AT THE LATEST VAD  
WIND PROFILER FROM OUR RADAR, WINDS ARE PEAKING IN THE LOW LEVELS  
AROUND 30-40KTS, WHICH HAS TRANSLATED TO THE SURFACE MAINLY FOR  
LOCALES EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE  
850MB TROUGH. THESE WINDS WILL PUSH EAST OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING.  
ANY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY WILL GIVE WAY TO A NW  
FLOW AS THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST SHIFTS EAST IN TANDEM WITH  
THE UPPER SUPPORT MOVING THROUGH. GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER POTENTIAL  
MIXING DOWN OF THE BACK SIDE JET WITH SOME GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH  
POSSIBLE BEFORE THIS TRANSLATES EAST BY THIS EVENING. NBM HOURLY  
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW ANYONE GOING ABOUT 30KTS, BUT IS OFF BASED ON  
CURRENT OBS, SO HAVE INCREASED NUMBERS SLIGHTLY FOR TODAY'S  
FORECAST. SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW DECENT MID/HIGH CLOUDS  
ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO HOLD UP OVERNIGHT, COMBINED WITH THE WARM  
SOUTHERLY FLOW.  
 
GOING INTO WED/THU, AMPLIFIED 500MB RIDGE TO THE WEST PUTS NW FLOW  
ALOFT OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. THIS TIMEFRAME EXPECTED TO  
REMAIN DRY W/ NO SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW. AT THE SURFACE  
THOUGH, A FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA PROVIDING DECENT SW FLOW ON  
WEDNESDAY W/ GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO  
THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CAA(COLD  
AIR ADVECTION) TO WORK DOWN INTO EASTERN LOCALES, PROVIDING A COLD  
NIGHT IN SOME AREAS. 850MB TEMPS AROUND 0C TO -3C GRAZE THESE AREAS,  
WITH THE COLDEST REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE CWA.  
 
FOR TEMPS, LOOKING FOR HIGHS TODAY TO RANGE IN THE 50S AREA-WIDE.  
WARMEST LOCALES WILL BE BETWEEN HWY 385 IN THE WEST, AND HWY 25 IN  
THE EAST. GOING INTO WEDNESDAY, SLIGHTLY COOLER W/ A WIDE RANGE FROM  
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO MAINLY MID AND UPPER  
50S FOR THURSDAY.  
 
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER  
20S(WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE TEENS). WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WARMER WITH  
MID TO UPPER 20S EXPECTED(WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO  
LOWER 20S). THURSDAY NIGHT, MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S EXPECTED, COLDEST  
IN THE E/NE(WIND CHILL READINGS MAINLY IN THE TEENS, WITH SINGLE  
NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO IN THE E/NE BY FRIDAY MORNING).  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 114 AM MST TUE DEC 17 2024  
 
RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE AT  
THE START THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OUR MILD  
AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD. FRIDAY, AT THIS  
TIME, LOOKS TO BE POTENTIALLY THE COOLEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD  
AS A COOLER AIR MASS IN WAKE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY  
WILL LEAD TO HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS  
THE EAST. FURTHER WEST HOWEVER WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE  
SOUTHERLY AS A SURFACE TROUGH NUDGES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.  
 
INTO THE WEEKEND, ESSENTIALLY THE SAME SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST  
TO CONTINUE AS HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S  
TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. I DID NUDGE HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN  
A LITTLE AS GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE STARTING TO FAVOR A  
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEEKEND WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 2-6  
DEGREES C. CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH ON SATURDAY  
WILL LEAD INTO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH  
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY THAT MAY PLAY A ROLE INTO THE  
CHRISTMAS TRAVEL PERIOD.  
 
UNFORTUNATELY THIS IS WHERE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIFFER IS WITH  
THIS TROUGH. DETERMINISTIC WISE THE GFS WANTS TO TAKE THIS  
SYSTEM DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND KEEP THE AREA DRY AND  
MILD IN SPLIT FLOW. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THE WAVE  
MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW  
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WHICH PHASES WITH THE SYNOPTIC WAVE AND  
LEADS TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MID WEEK. ENSEMBLE WISE, THE  
MAJORITY OF MEMBERS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS BUT THERE ARE A FEW WHO  
DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EITHER ON OR  
JUST AFTER THE HOLIDAY. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE I WILL  
CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST DUE TO THE DISCREPANCIES AND  
OVERALL WEAK SIGNAL OF PRECIPITATION VALUES IN EXCESS OF 0.01  
INCHES. OVERALL IT STILL REMAINS TO FAR OUT TO PINPOINT ANY  
POTENTIAL HAZARDS, IF ANY BUT FOR THOSE WHO HAVE TRAVEL PLANS  
CONTINUE TO STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MST TUE DEC 17 2024  
 
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF  
PERIOD. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS  
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING.  
 
 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...JN  
LONG TERM...TRIGG  
AVIATION...024  
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