306
FXUS63 KGLD 172106
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
206 PM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEF COOL DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING EAST OF
HIGHWAY 25 WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH IN WESTERN
AREAS NEAR THE COLORADO STATE LINE. THOSE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING, AS WELL AS THE CLOUDS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS. RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
WHERE GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WINDS DIMINISH SOME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT STILL COULD BE BREEZY AT TIMES WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH/WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE NORTHWEST. LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S.
THURSDAY CONTINUES TO SEE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS
20-30 MPH GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70, SLIGHTLY LOWER TO
THE SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
STILL LOOKING FOR A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT TO BRING
A BRIEF COOL DOWN, MOST NOTICEABLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 25 WHERE
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH ANY BACK
DOOR FRONT BUT MODELS STILL NOT SHOWING ANY VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. COLD AIR RETREATS RATHER
QUICKLY AS RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM
THE MIDDLE 40S IN THE EAST TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE WEST. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 114 AM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE AT
THE START THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OUR MILD
AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD. FRIDAY, AT THIS
TIME, LOOKS TO BE POTENTIALLY THE COOLEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS A COOLER AIR MASS IN WAKE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY
WILL LEAD TO HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS
THE EAST. FURTHER WEST HOWEVER WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY AS A SURFACE TROUGH NUDGES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
INTO THE WEEKEND, ESSENTIALLY THE SAME SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE AS HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. I DID NUDGE HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN
A LITTLE AS GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE STARTING TO FAVOR A
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEEKEND WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 2-6
DEGREES C. CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH ON SATURDAY
WILL LEAD INTO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY THAT MAY PLAY A ROLE INTO THE
CHRISTMAS TRAVEL PERIOD.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS IS WHERE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIFFER IS WITH
THIS TROUGH. DETERMINISTIC WISE THE GFS WANTS TO TAKE THIS
SYSTEM DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND KEEP THE AREA DRY AND
MILD IN SPLIT FLOW. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THE WAVE
MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WHICH PHASES WITH THE SYNOPTIC WAVE AND
LEADS TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MID WEEK. ENSEMBLE WISE, THE
MAJORITY OF MEMBERS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS BUT THERE ARE A FEW WHO
DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EITHER ON OR
JUST AFTER THE HOLIDAY. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE I WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST DUE TO THE DISCREPANCIES AND
OVERALL WEAK SIGNAL OF PRECIPITATION VALUES IN EXCESS OF 0.01
INCHES. OVERALL IT STILL REMAINS TO FAR OUT TO PINPOINT ANY
POTENTIAL HAZARDS, IF ANY BUT FOR THOSE WHO HAVE TRAVEL PLANS
CONTINUE TO STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...024
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