256
FXUS63 KGLD 180452
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
952 PM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEF COOL DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING EAST OF
HIGHWAY 25 WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH IN WESTERN
AREAS NEAR THE COLORADO STATE LINE. THOSE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING, AS WELL AS THE CLOUDS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS. RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
WHERE GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WINDS DIMINISH SOME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT STILL COULD BE BREEZY AT TIMES WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH/WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE NORTHWEST. LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S.
THURSDAY CONTINUES TO SEE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS
20-30 MPH GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70, SLIGHTLY LOWER TO
THE SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
STILL LOOKING FOR A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT TO BRING
A BRIEF COOL DOWN, MOST NOTICEABLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 25 WHERE
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH ANY BACK
DOOR FRONT BUT MODELS STILL NOT SHOWING ANY VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. COLD AIR RETREATS RATHER
QUICKLY AS RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM
THE MIDDLE 40S IN THE EAST TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE WEST. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
SATURDAY: A LESS-PROGRESSIVE /BLOCKED/ SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL
EVOLVE OVER NORTH AMERICA BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS A
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
AND DEEP TROUGHING /CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT/ ENVELOPES THE EASTERN
CONUS -- A PATTERN OFTEN ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC OUTBREAKS IN THE
EASTERN US. IN SUCH A SETUP, THE HIGH PLAINS (GEOGRAPHICAL AREA
IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE ROCKIES) WILL BE SITUATED AT AN
'INFLECTION POINT' BETWEEN THE PRONOUNCED RIDGE (TO THE WEST)
AND PRONOUNCED TROUGH (TO THE EAST).. A REGION CHARACTERIZED BY
NW FLOW ALOFT AND PROFOUND SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE.. A REGION THAT'S
TYPICALLY ON THE FAR WESTERN FRINGE OF, OR ALTOGETHER REMOVED
FROM, INTRUDING ARCTIC AIRMASSES. BOTTOM LINE: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY: LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A DICHOTOMOUS
SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA EARLY NEXT WEEK.. IN THE
SENSE THAT [1] A PRONOUNCED RIDGE /BLOCK/ WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER WESTERN-CENTRAL CANADA AS [2] PERIODIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY --
ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE/
VORTEX IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC (OVER THE BERING SEA, ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS AND GULF OF ALASKA) -- MOVING ASHORE THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ERODES, AND ULTIMATELY SUPPLANTS, THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE.. RESULTING IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE
WESTERN-CENTRAL CONUS (BENEATH THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN-CENTRAL
CANADA). IF THIS IS THE CASE, ONE WOULD EXPECT A RELATIVELY
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
MID-WEEK (DEC 25-26). IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT.. A
PRONOUNCED AND PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER WESTERN-CENTRAL CANADA
WOULD ACT AS A BLOCKADE AGAINST ARCTIC AIRMASSES.. RESULTING IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE, IF ANY(*), POTENTIAL FOR
WINTER WEATHER. DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED.
(*) IN THE ABSENCE OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS, THERMAL PROFILES WOULD
BE WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN ALMOST ALL
SCENARIOS NEXT WEEK. ALMOST, ALL.. SO, WHAT'S THE EXCEPTION?
THERE IS -ONE- SPECIFIC/UNIQUE SCENARIO THAT COULD PRODUCE
WINTER WEATHER (AND SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS) AROUND XMAS (DEC
25-26), A SCENARIO IN WHICH PROLONGED HEAVY PRECIPITATION
'MELTS-OUT' ABOVE FREEZING THERMAL PROFILES, FOSTERING A RATE-
DRIVEN TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO HEAVY WET SNOW. WHAT WOULD IT
TAKE FOR THAT TO HAPPEN? WHAT WOULD THAT LOOK LIKE? -- A SLOW
MOVING, INTENSIFYING MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE. THE TRI-STATE AREA
WOULD *HAVE* TO BE IN THE DEFORMATION BAND /ON THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY/ OF A [1] SLOW MOVING, [2] INTENSIFYING MID-LATITUDE
CYCLONE. WHILE POSSIBLE, SUCH SPECIFIC CIRCUMSTANCES ARE -FAR-
LESS PROBABLE THAN OTHER OUTCOMES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 942 PM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KMCK AND KGLD THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN WEAK AND SLOWLY BECOME
SOUTHERLY. LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING, AROUND 16-18Z, WINDS WILL
SPEED UP. KGLD IS EXPECTED TO SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON WHILE KMCK WILL REMAIN A BIT MORE CALM, WITH A
FEW GUSTS UP AROUND 15-20 KTS. EACH LOCATION COULD SEE A ROUGE
GUST OR TWO UP TO 10 KTS HIGHER AROUND 21Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...CA
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