207
FXUS63 KGLD 180810
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
110 AM MST WED DEC 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEF COOL DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING EAST OF
HIGHWAY 25 WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- VERY LOW POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION STARTING AROUND THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH IN WESTERN
AREAS NEAR THE COLORADO STATE LINE. THOSE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING, AS WELL AS THE CLOUDS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS. RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
WHERE GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WINDS DIMINISH SOME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT STILL COULD BE BREEZY AT TIMES WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH/WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE NORTHWEST. LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S.
THURSDAY CONTINUES TO SEE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS
20-30 MPH GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70, SLIGHTLY LOWER TO
THE SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
STILL LOOKING FOR A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT TO BRING
A BRIEF COOL DOWN, MOST NOTICEABLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 25 WHERE
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH ANY BACK
DOOR FRONT BUT MODELS STILL NOT SHOWING ANY VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. COLD AIR RETREATS RATHER
QUICKLY AS RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM
THE MIDDLE 40S IN THE EAST TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE WEST. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 102 AM MST WED DEC 18 2024
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST RIDGING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE PERSISTENT PATTERN OF MILD
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
REMAIN FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
AREA. A CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE PRESENT
WHICH MAY INFLUENCE THE 850MB TEMPERATURES LEADING TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, ESPECIALLY IF A
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OCCURS, WHICH A HANDFUL ON ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SUGGEST SO THAT WILL NEED TO BE CONTINUED TO BE
MONITORED IF MORE GUIDANCE BEGINS SUGGESTING THAT POTENTIAL. A
TRANSITION INTO A MORE ZONAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL THEN ENSUE TO
START THE WEEK WITH THE CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
A PATTERN CHANGE MAY THEN BE ON THE TABLE AROUND MID WEEK OR SO.
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN
THE PACIFIC AROUND MID WEEK OR SO. THE PART WHERE GUIDANCE DISAGREES
IS WITH THE TRACK AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL PLAY A
PART ON THE MID TO LATE WEEK WEATHER FOR THE REGION. AROUND 20-30%
OF ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE THE SYSTEM EITHER BECOMING A LOW
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OR BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE; WHICH IS
A TICK HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. HOWEVER LESS
THAN 5% OF THE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE LOW PRESSURE SCENARIO. IF
ONE OF THESE WERE TO OCCUR THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES WOULD
INCREASE. USING ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING A MORE OPEN WAVE SCENARIO
WOULD SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL VS A MORE COMPACT
SYSTEM WOULD FAVOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY IN THE
DEFORMATION BAND REGION. THE REMAINING MEMBERS FAVOR MORE SPLIT
FLOW WHICH IS WHAT THE GOOD MAJORITY OF GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUPPORT, WHICH IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR THEN DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE CHRISTMAS TRAVEL WEEK. IF THE LOW OR OPEN
WAVE WERE TO OCCUR THEN WHAT WOULD THE PRECIPITATION TYPE BE?
THIS WOULD BE THE DIFFICULT PART AS OVERALL 850MB TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY MILD LEADING UP TO IT. LOOKING AT
THE MOST CURRENT MOST AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE WHICH IS CURRENTLY THE
00Z ECMWF A POTENTIAL FOR A LOCALIZED RATE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
WOULD PERHAPS OCCUR. AT THIS TIME WITH ALL THE DIFFERENCES IN
EVOLUTION, TEMPERATURE, TRACK, ETC... IT IS STILL WAY TO EARLY
TO DECIPHER ANY SPECIFIC LOCATIONS, IMPACTS, AND EVEN
PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD THERE BE ANY WITH THIS POTENTIAL
SYSTEM. CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND CHECK BACK FOR THE LATEST
FORECAST UPDATES AS THE HOLIDAY TIME PERIOD CONTINUES TO GET
CLOSER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
UPDATE: MVFR CEILING ARE MOVING INTO THE KMCK AREA FROM THE
NORTH, BUT KMCK IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS. CEILINGS
LOOK TO DROP TO AROUND 1,000-1,500 FT AGL TEMPORARILY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. VERY BRIEF IFR CEILINGS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KMCK AND KGLD THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN WEAK AND SLOWLY BECOME
SOUTHERLY. LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING, AROUND 16-18Z, WINDS WILL
SPEED UP. KGLD IS EXPECTED TO SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON WHILE KMCK WILL REMAIN A BIT MORE CALM, WITH A
FEW GUSTS UP AROUND 15-20 KTS. EACH LOCATION COULD SEE A ROUGE
GUST OR TWO UP TO 10 KTS HIGHER AROUND 21Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...CA
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