774
FXUS63 KGLD 181707
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1007 AM MST WED DEC 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEF COOL DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING EAST OF
HIGHWAY 25 WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- VERY LOW POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION STARTING AROUND THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 144 AM MST WED DEC 18 2024
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING
THROUGH THE AREA, SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR WITH SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF GRAHAM COUNTY. TEMPERATURES AS OF 100 AM
MST ARE RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS INTO THE MID 20S. WINDS ARE
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MAINLY 10 MPH OR LESS, BUT SOME GUSTS TO 15-20
MPH ARE STILL OCCURRING IN THE EAST.
MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ON BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
TODAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
LOOKING AT THE LATEST RAP40 500MB ANALYSIS IN COMBINATION WITH MID
LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, A BUILDING, AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS IN PLACE
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY, WITH A BROAD TROUGH SETTING
UP IN THE EAST. WITH THE TRI STATE AREA IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS, NW
FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT AND LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE(GFS, NAM) HAS
THIS PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE
SHORTWAVES THAT DO RIDE ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CWA IN THE
SHORT TERM. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE PASSING EAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE, LOOKING FOR THE CURRENT RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA TO SETTLE EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY, WHILE A LEE-SIDE
TROUGH SETS UP IN EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SW GRADIENT
ALLOWING FOR DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND A DRY DAY. GRADIENT WILL BE
TIGHTEST NEAT THE TROUGH IN THE WEST. THE LATEST LAV/NBM HOURLY
GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME GUST POTENTIAL TO 30-35 MPH IS POSSIBLE.
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OFF THE FRONT RANGE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, SHIFTING THE SURFACE WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY. GUIDANCE HAS ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH/EAST
GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE RIDGE,
GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT WITH SOME GUST POTENTIAL IN THE 30 MPH RANGE
IN SPOTS MAINLY BEFORE 00Z FRIDAY.
FOR THE 06Z-14Z FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE EASTERN CWA. TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUGGESTS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE EAST. THE LAST COUPLE TIMES
THE AREA SAW A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSH INTO THE EAST, FOG/FREEZING FOG
DID DEVELOP. MOST GUIDANCE OUT THAT FAR IS CURRENTLY NOT SIGNALING A
VISIBILITY REDUCTION FOR THIS, SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT A
MENTION OF IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. A RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY
FETCH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER NICE AND DRY DAY TO
THE AREA.
FOR TEMPS, HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
EAST INTO THE LOWER 50S WEST. THIS IS DUE TO THE SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA, ALLOWING FOR MORE PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST,
DOWNSLOPE WARMING TO OCCUR IN WESTERN LOCALES. GOING INTO THURSDAY,
MID TO UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED. WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING
INTO THE EAST ON FRIDAY, 40S ARE EXPECTED ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 25.
WEST OF THERE INTO COLORADO, UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FOR IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30F TONIGHT
(WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE TEENS), MID TEENS TO AROUND 20F FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT(WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO TEENS
ABOVE ZERO). BY FRIDAY NIGHT, UPPER TEENS EAST INTO THE MID 20S WEST
ARE EXPECTED(WIND CHILL READINGS MAINLY IN THE TEENS, WITH A FEW
LOCALES EAST IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO).
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 102 AM MST WED DEC 18 2024
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST RIDGING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE PERSISTENT PATTERN OF MILD
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
REMAIN FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
AREA. A CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE PRESENT
WHICH MAY INFLUENCE THE 850MB TEMPERATURES LEADING TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, ESPECIALLY IF A
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OCCURS, WHICH A HANDFUL ON ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SUGGEST SO THAT WILL NEED TO BE CONTINUED TO BE
MONITORED IF MORE GUIDANCE BEGINS SUGGESTING THAT POTENTIAL. A
TRANSITION INTO A MORE ZONAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL THEN ENSUE TO
START THE WEEK WITH THE CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
A PATTERN CHANGE MAY THEN BE ON THE TABLE AROUND MID WEEK OR SO.
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN
THE PACIFIC AROUND MID WEEK OR SO. THE PART WHERE GUIDANCE DISAGREES
IS WITH THE TRACK AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL PLAY A
PART ON THE MID TO LATE WEEK WEATHER FOR THE REGION. AROUND 20-30%
OF ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE THE SYSTEM EITHER BECOMING A LOW
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OR BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE; WHICH IS
A TICK HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. HOWEVER LESS
THAN 5% OF THE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE LOW PRESSURE SCENARIO. IF
ONE OF THESE WERE TO OCCUR THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES WOULD
INCREASE. USING ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING A MORE OPEN WAVE SCENARIO
WOULD SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL VS A MORE COMPACT
SYSTEM WOULD FAVOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY IN THE
DEFORMATION BAND REGION. THE REMAINING MEMBERS FAVOR MORE SPLIT
FLOW WHICH IS WHAT THE GOOD MAJORITY OF GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUPPORT, WHICH IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR THEN DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE CHRISTMAS TRAVEL WEEK. IF THE LOW OR OPEN
WAVE WERE TO OCCUR THEN WHAT WOULD THE PRECIPITATION TYPE BE?
THIS WOULD BE THE DIFFICULT PART AS OVERALL 850MB TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY MILD LEADING UP TO IT. LOOKING AT
THE MOST CURRENT MOST AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE WHICH IS CURRENTLY THE
00Z ECMWF A POTENTIAL FOR A LOCALIZED RATE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
WOULD PERHAPS OCCUR. AT THIS TIME WITH ALL THE DIFFERENCES IN
EVOLUTION, TEMPERATURE, TRACK, ETC... IT IS STILL WAY TO EARLY
TO DECIPHER ANY SPECIFIC LOCATIONS, IMPACTS, AND EVEN
PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD THERE BE ANY WITH THIS POTENTIAL
SYSTEM. CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND CHECK BACK FOR THE LATEST
FORECAST UPDATES AS THE HOLIDAY TIME PERIOD CONTINUES TO GET
CLOSER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1004 AM MST WED DEC 18 2024
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...024
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