595
FXUS63 KGLD 182321
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
421 PM MST WED DEC 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEF COOL DOWN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EAST OF HIGHWAY 25 WITH A
COLD FRONT, BUT STILL ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- VERY LOW POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION STARTING AROUND THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 130 PM MST WED DEC 18 2024
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO START
THE PERIOD TO THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING DOWN THE
RIDGE TONIGHT WILL FORCE THROUGH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND WIND
SHIFT OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED JET MAX ALOFT NOT EXPECTED TO MIX TO
THE SURFACE, BUT STILL CAN'T RULE OUT A ROGUE GUST OR TWO. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S. THURSDAY WILL SEE NORTHWEST WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SHORTWAVE CONTINUES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF COOL DOWN WILL
FOLLOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, MAINLY IMPACTING TEMPERATURES IN
EASTERN AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S/40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 25,
WITH 50S/LOW 60S FURTHER WEST INTO COLORADO, AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO THE EAST AND 20S TO THE WEST. COLD AIR LIFTS OUT LATE
SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 PM MST WED DEC 18 2024
UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES
OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
CONUS. FIRST SYSTEM EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH
TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. SO, LOOKING FOR MORE OF THE SAME
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS
IN THE 20S. SECOND SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD DOES TRACK
FURTHER SOUTH AND MAY PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEGINNING CHRISTMAS DAY AND INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE VERY MARGINAL DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, SO EVEN
IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS IT WOULD PROBABLY BE LIGHT RAIN, THEN
CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL.
ECMWF REMAINS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SNOW AMOUNTS SHOWING A FEW
INCHES POSSIBLE, WHILE THE GFS ONLY SHOWING AN ISOLATED INCH OR
SO.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 404 PM MST WED DEC 18 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KMCK AND KGLD THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE. KGLD WILL SEE
WINDS WEAKEN AROUND 5-6Z, BUT AROUND 9Z, LOW LEVEL WINDS SHEAR
(LLWS) FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH AROUND 12Z.
ONCE THE SUN COMES UP AND BETTER MIXING OCCURS, EXPECT FOR THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
RESULT. KMCK WILL SEE A SIMILAR STORY WITH THE LLWS STARTING
AROUND 3Z AND LASTING UNTIL ABOUT 17Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
INVERSION LOOKS TO START EARLIER AND LAST LONGER. TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, KGLD WILL SEE GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS AND KMCK IS
FORECAST TO SEE GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...CA
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