546
FXUS63 KGLD 190514
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1014 PM MST WED DEC 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEF COOL DOWN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EAST OF HIGHWAY 25 WITH A
COLD FRONT, BUT STILL ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- VERY LOW POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION STARTING AROUND THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 130 PM MST WED DEC 18 2024
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO START
THE PERIOD TO THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING DOWN THE
RIDGE TONIGHT WILL FORCE THROUGH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND WIND
SHIFT OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED JET MAX ALOFT NOT EXPECTED TO MIX TO
THE SURFACE, BUT STILL CAN'T RULE OUT A ROGUE GUST OR TWO. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S. THURSDAY WILL SEE NORTHWEST WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SHORTWAVE CONTINUES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF COOL DOWN WILL
FOLLOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, MAINLY IMPACTING TEMPERATURES IN
EASTERN AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S/40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 25,
WITH 50S/LOW 60S FURTHER WEST INTO COLORADO, AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO THE EAST AND 20S TO THE WEST. COLD AIR LIFTS OUT LATE
SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 PM MST WED DEC 18 2024
UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES
OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
CONUS. FIRST SYSTEM EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH
TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. SO, LOOKING FOR MORE OF THE SAME
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS
IN THE 20S. SECOND SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD DOES TRACK
FURTHER SOUTH AND MAY PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEGINNING CHRISTMAS DAY AND INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE VERY MARGINAL DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, SO EVEN
IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS IT WOULD PROBABLY BE LIGHT RAIN, THEN
CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL.
ECMWF REMAINS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SNOW AMOUNTS SHOWING A FEW
INCHES POSSIBLE, WHILE THE GFS ONLY SHOWING AN ISOLATED INCH OR
SO.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 956 PM MST WED DEC 18 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WINDS WILL
STILL BE AN ISSUE FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. KGLD WILL SEE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) START AROUND 8Z AND LAST UNTIL ABOUT 17Z
WHEN THE STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WHEN THE
WINDS MIX DOWN, EXPECT GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KTS RANGE WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP AROUND 30-35 KTS POSSIBLE AROUND 21Z. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM 22Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. KMCK
WILL SEE LLWS UNTIL ABOUT 15Z. WINDS LOOK TO WEAKEN FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS AROUND SUNRISE, BUT BE PREPARED TO WINDS TO INCREASE
VERY QUICKLY. GUSTS IN THE 25-35 KTS RANGE SHOULD BE EXPECTED
FROM 17-23Z. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE OF A FEW ROUGE 40-45 KTS
GUSTS TO OCCUR AROUND 20-22Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. AROUND THE
23-3Z TIME FRAME, WINDS WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...CA
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