502
FXUS63 KGLD 190906
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
206 AM MST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEF COOL DOWN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EAST OF HIGHWAY 25 WITH A
COLD FRONT, BUT STILL ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- VERY LOW POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION STARTING AROUND THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 130 PM MST WED DEC 18 2024
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO START
THE PERIOD TO THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING DOWN THE
RIDGE TONIGHT WILL FORCE THROUGH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND WIND
SHIFT OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED JET MAX ALOFT NOT EXPECTED TO MIX TO
THE SURFACE, BUT STILL CAN'T RULE OUT A ROGUE GUST OR TWO. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S. THURSDAY WILL SEE NORTHWEST WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SHORTWAVE CONTINUES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF COOL DOWN WILL
FOLLOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, MAINLY IMPACTING TEMPERATURES IN
EASTERN AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S/40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 25,
WITH 50S/LOW 60S FURTHER WEST INTO COLORADO, AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO THE EAST AND 20S TO THE WEST. COLD AIR LIFTS OUT LATE
SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 204 AM MST THU DEC 19 2024
FOR THE CHRISTMAS WEEK, AN ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS
FORECAST, BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SURFACE CONDITIONS.
MULTIPLE TROUGHS/SHORTWAVES ARE SUGGESTED TO MOVE OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS NOTED THOUGH IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, THE EARLY WEEK WAVE IS FAVORED TO MOVE MORE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THIS LIKELY MEANS THAT
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 50'S AND MAYBE EVEN THE 60'S ON
SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 20'S. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR
THESE DAYS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS A BIT TRICKIER AS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES THAT WOULD HAVE
THE AREA GO FROM TROUGHING, TO RIDGING, TO TROUGHING IN A SHORT TIME
PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH. SO FAR, THERE DOESN'T SEEM TO BE TOO MUCH OF AN AIR
MASS CHANGE WITH ENSEMBLE 850MB TEMP SPREAD REMAINING AROUND 3 TO 10
CELSIUS WHICH WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS WOULD REMAIN IN THE 40'S-50'S WITH
LOW IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES. THE INITIAL WAVE ON TUESDAY LOOKS TO
HAVE TOO MUCH DRY AIR FOR ANY PRECIPITATION, BUT THE SECOND PUSH
LATE CHRISTMAS DAY OR ON THURSDAY MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE MOVE IN
FOR A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURE
FORECAST, RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE LIKELY EXCEPT DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IF PRECIPITATION DID OCCUR. EVEN THEN, ACCUMULATIONS ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND A TRACE TO MAYBE AN INCH EXCEPT FOR AN
ENSEMBLE MEMBER OR TWO THAT HAS AROUND 3 INCHES. AS SUCH, HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WITH A
LESS THAN 5% CHANCE FOR ADVISORY OR HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
THURSDAY HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF BEING A BIT COOLER DEPENDING ON HOW
DEEP THE UPPER TROUGH GETS AND HOW FAST IT CAN MOVE INTO THE PLAINS.
40'S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR HIGHS, BUT 30'S OR EVEN SOME 20'S
ARE POSSIBLE IF CLOUD COVER LINGERS AND WITH THE DEEPER TROUGH
SOLUTIONS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 956 PM MST WED DEC 18 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WINDS WILL
STILL BE AN ISSUE FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. KGLD WILL SEE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) START AROUND 8Z AND LAST UNTIL ABOUT 17Z
WHEN THE STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WHEN THE
WINDS MIX DOWN, EXPECT GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KTS RANGE WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP AROUND 30-35 KTS POSSIBLE AROUND 21Z. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM 22Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. KMCK
WILL SEE LLWS UNTIL ABOUT 15Z. WINDS LOOK TO WEAKEN FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS AROUND SUNRISE, BUT BE PREPARED TO WINDS TO INCREASE
VERY QUICKLY. GUSTS IN THE 25-35 KTS RANGE SHOULD BE EXPECTED
FROM 17-23Z. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE OF A FEW ROUGE 40-45 KTS
GUSTS TO OCCUR AROUND 20-22Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. AROUND THE
23-3Z TIME FRAME, WINDS WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...CA
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