402
FXUS63 KGLD 190946
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
246 AM MST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEF COOL DOWN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EAST OF HIGHWAY 25 WITH A
COLD FRONT, BUT STILL ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- VERY LOW POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION STARTING AROUND THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 246 AM MST THU DEC 19 2024
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR WITH SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS LOCALES ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY
36. WINDS ARE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION, AND TEMPERATURES AS OF 200 AM MST ARE RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S.
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY. ALSO, THE LOW
CHANCE FOR FOG POTENTIAL EAST AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.
LOOKING AT THE LATEST RAP40 500MB ANALYSIS IN TANDEM WITH MID LEVEL
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, THE AREA DOES REMAIN IN NW FLOW ALOFT, WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH PLAINS.
THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE CWA ALONG THE
EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
NAM/GFS/HRRR GUIDANCE DOES SHOW AN 850MB JET THAT WILL RIDE THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY. THE LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE FROM OUR RADAR DOES SHOW
35-40KTS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OFF THE DECK. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
CURRENTLY HAVE AN INVERSION OVER THE AREA, WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE
HIGHER FLOW FROM MIXING DOWN. CHANCES DO INCREASE LATER TODAY AS
MIXING WITH FULL SUNSHINE OCCURS. THE TRACK OF THE JET PUTS LOCALES
IN THE EAST/NORTHEAST WITH THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE SOME 30-40 MPH
GUSTS BY THE AFTERNOON, TAPERING BY SUNSET. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CWA IS SLOWLY TRANSITIONING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST.
GOING INTO TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY, AS THE STRONG WINDS
TAPER DOWN, A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD E/SE THROUGH THE PLAINS. THIS
RIDGE WILL GRAZE LOCALES IN THE EAST, ALLOWING FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT TO DEVELOP. DESPITE THIS SHOWING AN ENTRY INTO THE REGION,
ONLY THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER SHOWING SOME FOG POTENTIAL
IN RED WILLOW/NORTON COUNTIES. WITH NO INCREASE IN MODEL COVERAGE,
HAVE LEFT OUT A MENTION OF FOG. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST, WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH SETS UP OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL ENHANCE/INCREASE S/SW FLOW OVER THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. AS A RESULT, THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMP TREND FOR WESTERN LOCALES.
THE TROUGH IN COLORADO WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT, SETTING UP NW
FLOW OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER RIDGE EAST AND SW FLOW OVER THE
AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE SW FETCH WILL INCREASE DOWNSLOPE
WARMING WEST OF HIGHWAY 25, PROVIDING A WIDER TEMPERATURE SPREAD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FOR TEMPS, LOOKING FOR HIGHS TODAY TO RANGE IN MID TO UPPER 50S.
GOING INTO FRIDAY, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA WILL CREATE A WIDE RANGE FOR HIGHS WITH UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. WEST OF THERE, MID 40S TO LOWER
50S ARE EXPECTED. BY SATURDAY, UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S EAST OF
HIGHWAY 25, AND MID TO UPPER 50S WEST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS(WIND CHILL READINGS
IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO MID TEENS ABOVE ZERO), GIVING WAY TO MAINLY
20S FRIDAY NIGHT. AREAS ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 MAY DROP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, 20S EXPECTED AREA-WIDE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 204 AM MST THU DEC 19 2024
FOR THE CHRISTMAS WEEK, AN ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS
FORECAST, BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SURFACE CONDITIONS.
MULTIPLE TROUGHS/SHORTWAVES ARE SUGGESTED TO MOVE OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS NOTED THOUGH IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, THE EARLY WEEK WAVE IS FAVORED TO MOVE MORE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THIS LIKELY MEANS THAT
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 50'S AND MAYBE EVEN THE 60'S ON
SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 20'S. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR
THESE DAYS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS A BIT TRICKIER AS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES THAT WOULD HAVE
THE AREA GO FROM TROUGHING, TO RIDGING, TO TROUGHING IN A SHORT TIME
PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH. SO FAR, THERE DOESN'T SEEM TO BE TOO MUCH OF AN AIR
MASS CHANGE WITH ENSEMBLE 850MB TEMP SPREAD REMAINING AROUND 3 TO 10
CELSIUS WHICH WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS WOULD REMAIN IN THE 40'S-50'S WITH
LOW IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES. THE INITIAL WAVE ON TUESDAY LOOKS TO
HAVE TOO MUCH DRY AIR FOR ANY PRECIPITATION, BUT THE SECOND PUSH
LATE CHRISTMAS DAY OR ON THURSDAY MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE MOVE IN
FOR A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURE
FORECAST, RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE LIKELY EXCEPT DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IF PRECIPITATION DID OCCUR. EVEN THEN, ACCUMULATIONS ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND A TRACE TO MAYBE AN INCH EXCEPT FOR AN
ENSEMBLE MEMBER OR TWO THAT HAS AROUND 3 INCHES. AS SUCH, HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WITH A
LESS THAN 5% CHANCE FOR ADVISORY OR HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
THURSDAY HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF BEING A BIT COOLER DEPENDING ON HOW
DEEP THE UPPER TROUGH GETS AND HOW FAST IT CAN MOVE INTO THE PLAINS.
40'S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR HIGHS, BUT 30'S OR EVEN SOME 20'S
ARE POSSIBLE IF CLOUD COVER LINGERS AND WITH THE DEEPER TROUGH
SOLUTIONS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 956 PM MST WED DEC 18 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WINDS WILL
STILL BE AN ISSUE FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. KGLD WILL SEE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) START AROUND 8Z AND LAST UNTIL ABOUT 17Z
WHEN THE STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WHEN THE
WINDS MIX DOWN, EXPECT GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KTS RANGE WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP AROUND 30-35 KTS POSSIBLE AROUND 21Z. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM 22Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. KMCK
WILL SEE LLWS UNTIL ABOUT 15Z. WINDS LOOK TO WEAKEN FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS AROUND SUNRISE, BUT BE PREPARED TO WINDS TO INCREASE
VERY QUICKLY. GUSTS IN THE 25-35 KTS RANGE SHOULD BE EXPECTED
FROM 17-23Z. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE OF A FEW ROUGE 40-45 KTS
GUSTS TO OCCUR AROUND 20-22Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. AROUND THE
23-3Z TIME FRAME, WINDS WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...CA
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