210
FXUS63 KGLD 201635
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
935 AM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEFLY COOLER DOWN MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 25 WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA, BUT STILL ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LOW CHANCE (30%) OF PRECIPITATION AROUND CHRISTMAS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 303 AM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL AS A COLD FRONT
IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA, WITH A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
BEHIND IT THAT STRETCHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE RIDGE
NOSING SOUTH INTO THE AREA, WINDS ARE LIGHT/VARIABLE AT THIS
TIME(200 AM MST). WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES, DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS AS TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING IN THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.
THE LATEST RAP40 500MB ANALYSIS IN COMBINATION WITH MID LEVEL WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE COUNTRY, AND A BROAD TROUGH EAST. THIS PUTS THE TRI STATE
AREA IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS, ALLOWING FOR NW FLOW ALOFT TO
PERSIST. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM DO SHOW THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST SLOWLY TREK EAST GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH ZONAL
FLOW EVENTUALLY BY SUNDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, THE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST DURING THE DAY, ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE OVER
LOCALES WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. THE COLD POOL FROM THE ARRIVAL OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY, AS THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOW PUSH FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BE IMPACTFUL. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WEST WILL BE AIDED BY A DEVELOPING LEE-SIDE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS DOES PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT,
ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SHIFT MORE W/NW.
GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND, THE TROUGH RESETS OVER EASTERN COLORADO
SATURDAY. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA, THE
SOUTHERLY WARMING FLOW WILL EXPAND AREA-WIDE. WITH NO
MOISTURE/SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE AREA, NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. A LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY AND DIPS SOUTH DURING THE DAY.
OVERALL FOR THE WEEKEND, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. WITH THE
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, RH VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY
WILL APPROACH THE 20% MARK. AND WITH WINDS PEAKING AROUND 10-20 MPH
AT BEST, THINKING ANY FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW, BUT WILL BE
MONITORED NONETHELESS.
FOR TEMPS, WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, THERE WILL
BE A WIDE RANGE FOR HIGHS. LOOKING FOR AREAS ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 TO SEE MID 30S TO AROUND 40F. LOWER TO MID 40S WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 25 CORRIDOR. WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 INTO COLORADO,
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EXPECTED, WITH WARMEST LOCALES ALONG/WEST OF
HIGHWAY 27.
GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND, SATURDAY WILL HAVE MID 40S TO MID 50S EAST
OF HIGHWAY 25. WEST OF THERE, MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. GOING INTO
SUNDAY, 60S EXPECTED AREA-WIDE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 20S, WITH SOME MID TO UPPER
TEENS ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. FOR THIS WEEKEND, 20S EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT, WITH SOME ISOLATED 30F POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 223 AM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS WEEK. THE UPPER PATTERN
REMAINS FORECAST TO START ZONAL, AND THEN SEE MULTIPLE TROUGHS MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST WITH MORE PERSISTENT TROUGHING FORECAST FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL GENERALLY KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS BETWEEN THE 30'S AND 50'S WHILE LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 20'S. WHILE FORECAST 850MB TEMPERATURES COULD SUPPORT SOME
HIGHS NEAR 60 (ESPECIALLY TO START THE WEEK), WAVES OF CLOUD COVER
MOVING IN WITH THE UPPER WAVES ARE FORECAST TO HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER DURING THE DAY, AND A BIT WARMER AT NIGHT.
FOR MON/TUES, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN ELEVATED (GENERALLY 700MB AND HIGHER) WITH MOISTURE MOVING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST.
LATER CHRISTMAS DAY AND INTO THURSDAY, LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN FORECAST AND LOOK A BIT BETTER AS THE
TROUGH AT MID-WEEK IS FAVORED TO TAKE A BIT MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
TRACK. THIS WOULD KEEP THE SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND ALLOW SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. IF ENOUGH MOISTURE MOVED IN AND THE TROUGH DIDN'T DIG
TOO FAR SOUTH AND TAKE THE FORCING OUT OF THE AREA, SOME
SHOWERS COULD FORM EITHER CHRISTMAS DAY OR THE DAY AFTER.
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE RAIN DURING THE DAY AND SNOW AT NIGHT
WITH NO SUGGESTION OF A STRONG COLD AIR MASS MOVING IN AND
KEEPING PRECIPITATION AS SNOW. CURRENT ENSEMBLES KEEP QPF
GENERALLY BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH MOST STILL SHOWING NO
QPF. SO EVEN IF PRECIPITATION DID FALL (30% CHANCE), IT WOULD
LIKELY BE JUST ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND OR GIVE A TRACE OF SNOW.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A HAZARD WITH
GENERALLY WEAK HEIGHT GRADIENTS AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY AND WITHOUT DEEPENING
TOO MUCH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 935 AM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 25-30KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 23Z, FALLING TO AROUND 10KTS BY 00Z. TONIGHT, WINDS VEER
TO THE SOUTHWEST, WEST THEN NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS UP TO 10KTS.
WINDS THEN BACK TO THE WEST AT SPEEDS AROUND 6KTS AROUND 17Z
SATURDAY.
KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10KTS WITH POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT
TAF ISSUANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 02Z, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FROM 03Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...99
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