553
FXUS63 KGLD 211738
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1038 AM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND.
- CONTINUED 20-30% CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS
CHRISTMAS NIGHT. MAY HAVE ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
TO END NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
FOR THE WEEKEND, DRY MILD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH UPPER RIDGING
AND ZONAL FLOW FORECAST. THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO KEEP
WINDS ON THE LOW SIDE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH AND A
FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH BOTH DAYS. WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO BECOME CALM
AT TIMES. WITH DRY AIR ALSO IN PLACE, SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND 850MB
TEMPS FORECAST TO REACH AROUND 8-12 C, HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
INTO THE 50'S AND 60'S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. LOCALES ALONG AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83 MAY STAY IN THE 40'S TODAY WITH THE COOLER AIR MASS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST. FOR TOMORROW, MID
TO UPPER 60'S ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WITH
SOME PRE-FRONTAL WARMING AND THE COLDER AIR MASS FORECAST TO BE A
BIT SLOWER TO MOVE IN SIMILAR TO RECENT FRONTS. LOW TEMPERATURES
BOTH NIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE TWENTIES AND 30'S, THOUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT WARMER WITH LOWS MORE AROUND
30. CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO INCREASE LATE TOMORROW BEHIND THE
FRONT AND AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SOME
MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE COOLER WITH
MULTIPLE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE TROUGHS LATER IN THE WEEK.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO HAVE HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW
50'S, THOUGH THE PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER OR LACK THERE OF COULD
STILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FLUCTUATE A BIT AS MID TO HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE STREAMING IN WITH THE TROUGHS. WITH
DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON EITHER
DAY. THE SLIGHT RIDGING THAT WILL FOLLOW THE INITIAL TROUGH IS ALSO
FORECAST TO HELP KEEP WINDS ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH A MIX OF CALM
WINDS AND SPEEDS UP TO 15 MPH.
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND THE DAY AFTER, A DEEPER AND MORE SOUTHERLY
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND THE PLAINS.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH AND
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN 5-10 DEGREES FROM THE PRIOR DAYS, MAYBE MORE
IF CLOUD COVER IS AS THICK AS SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING. TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS LOWERED COMPARED TO PRIOR RUNS,
SO FEELING MORE CONFIDENT IN THE MAIN PORTION OF THE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH LATE CHRISTMAS DAY. WITH THIS, PRECIPITATION REMAINS
UNLIKELY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS SHIFTING MORE
TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES REGION, WE BEGIN TO HAVE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA
AROUND THE LOW. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE HAS INCREASED OUR
CHANCES WITH 50-60% OF THE MEMBERS SHOWING A CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A
TRACE OF MOISTURE, THOUGH FORECAST AMOUNTS REMAIN AROUND A TENTH OR
LESS OF AN INCH. SNOW AMOUNTS ALSO GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND A TRACE
AND WOULD BE CONFINED UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
LOWER POPS THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBER COMPOSITE DUE TO ENSEMBLE SPREAD
CHARTS SHOWING A POTENTIAL SHIFT SOUTH IN THE TROUGH, WHICH COULD
PULL THE SURFACE LOW TOO FAR SOUTH AND LIMIT OUR FORCING AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FEED. IN EITHER TRACK, THE LOW AND TROUGH LOOK TO BE
MOVING TOO FAST AND WITH A TRACK THAT WOULDN'T GIVE THE AREA ANY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER. HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40'S
AND 50'S, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE ONCE WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.
LATE IN THE WEEK, GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING YET ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO WED/THUR GIVEN A SIMILAR TRACK AND PROGRESSION EAST.
AS EXPECTED, THERE IS MORE VARIABILITY IN ENSEMBLES WITH THIS TROUGH
AT THIS RANGE SO IT'LL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS
FOR THE PERIOD. KGLD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VARIABLE WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 5 KTS
THROUGH 00Z THEN INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THEN
WEST TO NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. KMCK IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 5 KTS FOR THE
PERIOD WITH MOSTLY VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AROUND 12Z, WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KMK
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