279
FXUS63 KGLD 212058
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
158 PM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND.
- CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CHRISTMAS NIGHT. MAY HAVE
ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
FOR THE WEEKEND, DRY MILD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH UPPER RIDGING
AND ZONAL FLOW FORECAST. THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO KEEP
WINDS ON THE LOW SIDE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH AND A
FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH BOTH DAYS. WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO BECOME CALM
AT TIMES. WITH DRY AIR ALSO IN PLACE, SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND 850MB
TEMPS FORECAST TO REACH AROUND 8-12 C, HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
INTO THE 50'S AND 60'S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. LOCALES ALONG AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83 MAY STAY IN THE 40'S TODAY WITH THE COOLER AIR MASS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST. FOR TOMORROW, MID
TO UPPER 60'S ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WITH
SOME PRE-FRONTAL WARMING AND THE COLDER AIR MASS FORECAST TO BE A
BIT SLOWER TO MOVE IN SIMILAR TO RECENT FRONTS. LOW TEMPERATURES
BOTH NIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE TWENTIES AND 30'S, THOUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT WARMER WITH LOWS MORE AROUND
30. CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO INCREASE LATE TOMORROW BEHIND THE
FRONT AND AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SOME
MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 154 PM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
SOMEWHAT ACTIVE.
THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE TUESDAY WILL SHIFT TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH BY
CHRISTMAS DAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MATCHING VERY WELL WITH THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS TROUGH. HOWEVER THE TROUGH ITSELF WILL BE
TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS NOTED BY THE PRIOR
SHIFT, ENSEMBLES ARE RATHER OPTIMISTIC WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES
BOTH HAVE 40-50% FOR ATLEAST .1" OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION OCCURRING
DURING THE NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AT
NIGHT, WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWING RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW FOR
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 50% THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN AND NOT CHANGE TO SNOW SINCE THIS WILL BE
OCCURRING AT NIGHT IN LATE DECEMBER. LOOKING AT THE FORECAST DEW
POINTS, THEY ARE IN THE LOW 30S. IF DEW POINTS STAY AROUND THE
LOWER TO MID 30S, THE PRECIPITATION MAY ACTUALLY BE RAIN INSTEAD OF
SNOW. THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY WHICH WILL
LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY OCCURS.
LOOKING AT THE LAST 8 OR SO PRIOR MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE
LAST FEW OF THE ECMWF, BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN SHIFTING THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH FURTHER NORTH. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IT WILL PUT
THE FORECAST AREA IN A BETTER POSITION FOR MORE PRECIPITATION TO
OCCUR.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THIS TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH,
AND THEY MATCH EACH OTHER WITH THE SPEED AND TRACK OF THE TROUGH. AM
HIGHLY SKEPTICAL IF THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS TROUGH
GIVEN IT IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE ECMWF
AND THE GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE 20% CHANCE OR LESS FOR ATLEAST .1" OF
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING WITH THIS TROUGH.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY WARM A FEW
MORE DEGREES THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST GIVEN THE SHORT WAVE
RIDGE OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL MID WEEK AS
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, THEN WARM TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING LONG WAVE TROUGH.
TERMS:
GFS AND ECMWF ARE GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS
FOR THE PERIOD. KGLD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VARIABLE WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 5 KTS
THROUGH 00Z THEN INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THEN
WEST TO NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. KMCK IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 5 KTS FOR THE
PERIOD WITH MOSTLY VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AROUND 12Z, WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...KMK
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