808
FXUS63 KGLD 212118
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
218 PM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY.
- CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CHRISTMAS NIGHT. MAY HAVE
ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 217 PM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
PLEASANT SEASONAL TO ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE START OF CHRISTMAS WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS TOMORROW BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO WHAT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SAW TODAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS, SKY COVER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CALM TO AROUND
5 MPH OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTH. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SINCE THE
CLOUD COVER WILL HELP INSULATE THE SURFACE. THE NORTH WINDS WILL
HELP MOVE A COLDER AIR MASS OVER THE REGION BRINGING MONDAY'S HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S.
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE MID-RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS PLACES MORE OF A ZONAL
PATTERN TO SLIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A QUICK MOVING UPPER TROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 154 PM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
SOMEWHAT ACTIVE.
THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE TUESDAY WILL SHIFT TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH BY
CHRISTMAS DAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MATCHING VERY WELL WITH THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS TROUGH. HOWEVER THE TROUGH ITSELF WILL BE
TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS NOTED BY THE PRIOR
SHIFT, ENSEMBLES ARE RATHER OPTIMISTIC WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES
BOTH HAVE 40-50% FOR ATLEAST .1" OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION OCCURRING
DURING THE NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AT
NIGHT, WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWING RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW FOR
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 50% THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN AND NOT CHANGE TO SNOW SINCE THIS WILL BE
OCCURRING AT NIGHT IN LATE DECEMBER. LOOKING AT THE FORECAST DEW
POINTS, THEY ARE IN THE LOW 30S. IF DEW POINTS STAY AROUND THE
LOWER TO MID 30S, THE PRECIPITATION MAY ACTUALLY BE RAIN INSTEAD OF
SNOW. THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY WHICH WILL
LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY OCCURS.
LOOKING AT THE LAST 8 OR SO PRIOR MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE
LAST FEW OF THE ECMWF, BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN SHIFTING THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH FURTHER NORTH. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IT WILL PUT
THE FORECAST AREA IN A BETTER POSITION FOR MORE PRECIPITATION TO
OCCUR.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THIS TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH,
AND THEY MATCH EACH OTHER WITH THE SPEED AND TRACK OF THE TROUGH. AM
HIGHLY SKEPTICAL IF THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS TROUGH
GIVEN IT IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE ECMWF
AND THE GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE 20% CHANCE OR LESS FOR ATLEAST .1" OF
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING WITH THIS TROUGH.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY WARM A FEW
MORE DEGREES THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST GIVEN THE SHORT WAVE
RIDGE OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL MID WEEK AS
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, THEN WARM TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING LONG WAVE TROUGH.
TERMS:
GFS AND ECMWF ARE GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS
FOR THE PERIOD. KGLD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VARIABLE WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 5 KTS
THROUGH 00Z THEN INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THEN
WEST TO NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. KMCK IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 5 KTS FOR THE
PERIOD WITH MOSTLY VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AROUND 12Z, WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...KMK
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