118
FXUS63 KGLD 151823
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1123 AM MST WED JAN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- WIND CHILLS SUNDAY-TUESDAY MORNING COULD LOWER TO AROUND
-15F TO -25F. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MAY ALSO NOT SEE WIND
CHILLS GET ABOVE 0.
- PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST WED JAN 15 2025
THE SHORT-TERM IS FAIRLY CALM WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED! SOME
PATCHY FREEZING FOG WILL LINGER AROUND THE FAR EASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING UNTIL ABOUT 15Z WHEN THE WESTERLY WINDS PUSH IT OUT OF
THE AREA AND THE SUN BURNS IT OFF. MINIMAL TO NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED FROM THIS FOG. A RIDGE IS MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS,
WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT THE SKY. OUR UPPER- LEVEL FLOW WILL START
OFF AS NORTHWESTERLY, GRADUALLY BECOMING WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. A BUILDING 850 MB RIDGE WILL BE STRENGTHENING THROUGH
THE PERIOD TOO, ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT WAA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY, AS THE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. TODAY, WE CAN EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50. THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE WESTERN CWA, WHERE LINGERING SNOW
PACK WILL COOL THE WESTERLY WINDS A FEW DEGREES. WEDNESDAY WILL
WARM UP NICELY, WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AT 21Z EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 7-9C AND CLEAR SKIES, WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE MID TO UPPER
50S ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE LOW 60S ARE NOT IMPOSSIBLE,
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE PBL
MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S WHILE TOMORROW NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. ENJOY THE WARMER WEATHER WHILE
YOU CAN!
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 AM MST WED JAN 15 2025
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD/DANGEROUSLY COLD WEATHER REMAINS FORECAST
FOR THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY, THE UPPER CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST
TO SLIDE EAST WHILE A WAVE WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. WITH THIS, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND
CLEAR THE AREA BY THE NOON HOUR. THE COLDER AIR AND MOISTURE ARE
FORECAST TO BE TIED MORE TO THE NORTHERN WAVE, SO THE ADVANCEMENT OF
THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO JUST INCREASE WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND STABILIZE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40'S. THERE
CURRENTLY ISN'T TOO MUCH VARIABILITY FORECAST WITH FRIDAY'S DAYTIME
HOURS, SHORT OF MAYBE THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH A BIT FASTER AND
INCREASING THE WINDS BY 5 TO 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY, THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THAT WAS MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES AND EXPANDING ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES (CONUS) IS FORECAST TO BEGIN PUSHING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. WITH IT, A COLDER AIR MASS AND SOME
MOISTURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
CHANCE FOR SNOW, THOUGH AMOUNTS STILL GENERALLY LOOK TO BE ON THE
LOW SIDE. FORCING LOOKS TO BE WEAK WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN, AND THE UPPER LOW BEING BROAD WITH MAYBE AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE. WITH THIS, MOST OF THE SNOW IS THEN FORECAST TO FALL AS
THE AIR SATURATES, WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY STAYING BELOW 2 INCHES FOR
THE ENTIRE 24 HOUR PERIOD AND LARGELY BEING CONFINED TO EASTERN
COLORADO. THE VARIABILITY IN AMOUNTS LOOKS LARGELY TIES TO HOW LONG
THE AIR STAYS SATURATED IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. IF THE AIR
REMAINS SATURATED INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SATURDAY,
AMOUNTS COULD CLIMB INTO THE 4 TO 5 INCH RANGE WITH THE SMALLER
AMOUNTS EXPANDING INTO MORE OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. CURRENTLY, THE CHANCES FOR 3+ INCH AMOUNTS AND/OR MORE
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS IS ABOUT 25% AS THE TROUGH IS FAVORED TO EXPAND
WEST, PULLING THE BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE AREA. THE OTHER HAZARD TO
WATCH IS FOR BLOWING SNOW. IF SNOW AMOUNTS BEGIN TO EXCEED AN INCH
OR TWO, WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHES OF LOW
VISIBILITY AROUND A MILE. I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE
STRONGER WINDS IN EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY, BUT LOOKS LIKE
WIND GUSTS WOULD CAP OUT AT 40 MPH. AS FOR TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY,
LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE TEENS WITH THE HIGHS NOT MUCH WARMER IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES UNLESS THE CLOUD COVER BREAKS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST DAYS OF
THE PERIOD SO FAR, BOTH IN REGARDS TO LOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT FORECAST AS LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS
FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. WITH
WINDS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 MPH, WIND CHILLS MAY STAY NEAR ZERO
AND IN THE NEGATIVES FOR MOST OF THE TIME BETWEEN SATURDAY EVENING
AND TUESDAY MORNING. THAT BEING SAID, THE DETERMINISTIC GFS ON THE
00Z RUN WAS TRYING TO SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE HIGH
MAY NOT GET AS DEEP AND KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND TWENTIES. THIS LOOKS TO STEM FROM THE UPPER LOW
POTENTIALLY WIDENING OUT AS A TROUGH GETS LEFT BEHIND IN THE MAIN
FLOW WITH UPPER LOW SHIFTING EAST. IF THIS DID SHIFT THE SYSTEM
NORTH, SUNDAY MAY ALLOW A BRIEF REPRIEVE AND HAVE WIND CHILLS ABOVE
ZERO INSTEAD. LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE SPREADS AND TRENDS, HAVE DECIDED
TO STICK WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST OF COLDER TEMPERATURES AS THIS
MAY BE A ONE OFF. MONDAY COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED WITH A NORTHERLY
SHIFT IN THE TROUGH, THOUGH THERE IS LESS OF A CHANCE OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES. AS FOR SNOW, THE PRESENCE OF EITHER A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OR CUT-OFF LOW SUN/MON WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW,
WITH ACCUMULATIONS BEING LIGHT DUE TO LOW MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE QUESTION OF
WHETHER A CUT-OFF LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES, OR IF THE NEXT
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EVERYTHING EAST. WHILE THERE IS NOT A
CLEAR SIGNAL ONE WAY OR ANOTHER, IT DOES SUGGEST THAT THE NEXT RIDGE
WILL AT SOME POINT ON ONE OF THESE DAYS PUSH EVERYTHING OFF WHICH
WILL END THE COLD SPELL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MST WED JAN 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
FOR THE KMCK AND KGLD TERMINALS. THROUGH 23Z, WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10-15 KTS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5-10 KTS AFTER 00Z AND GRADUALLY BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KMK
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