467
FXUS63 KGLD 152332
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
432 PM MST WED JAN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- WIND CHILLS SUNDAY-TUESDAY MORNING COULD LOWER TO AROUND
-15F TO -25F. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MAY NOT SEE WIND CHILLS
GET ABOVE 0.
- PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 259 PM MST WED JAN 15 2025
THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALMOST CLEAR OF THE HIGH PLAINS AS OF 2 PM MDT
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LINGERING THANKS TO A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES (CONUS). PLEASANT BUT CHILLY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE A BIT WARMER IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S.
THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY GIVEN THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 50S. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 20S ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 259 PM MST WED JAN 15 2025
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOPEFULLY YOU ARE ENJOYING THE "WARMER" TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
WEEK AND ARE ABLE TO PREPARE FOR THE ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN OVER THE
WEEKEND! ON FRIDAY, THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE ASHORE AND DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS. A HEAD OF THE UPPER LOW, A SURFACE TROUGH WELL
DEVELOP ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE AS MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM CANADA. THERE
CURRENTLY ISN'T TOO MUCH VARIABILITY WITH THE FORECAST DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY, SHORT OF MAYBE THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH A BIT
FASTER. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY, THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THAT WAS MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES AND EXPANDING ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES (CONUS) IS FORECAST TO BEGIN PUSHING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. WITH IT, A COLDER AIR MASS AND SOME
MOISTURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH AMOUNTS STILL GENERALLY ON THE LOW SIDE.
FORCING LOOKS TO BE WEAK WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN,
AND THE UPPER LOW BEING BROAD WITH MAYBE AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE. WITH
THIS, MOST OF THE SNOW IS THEN FORECAST TO FALL AS THE AIR
SATURATES, WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY STAYING BELOW 2 INCHES FOR THE
ENTIRE 24 HOUR PERIOD AND LARGELY BEING CONFINED TO ALONG AND WEST
OF THE COLORADO BORDER. THE VARIABILITY IN AMOUNTS LOOKS LARGELY
TIES TO HOW LONG THE AIR STAYS SATURATED IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.
IF THE AIR REMAINS SATURATED INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SATURDAY, AMOUNTS COULD CLIMB INTO THE 4 TO 5 INCH RANGE WITH THE
SMALLER AMOUNTS EXPANDING INTO MORE OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CURRENTLY, THE CHANCES FOR 3+ INCH AMOUNTS
AND/OR MORE WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS IS ABOUT 25% AS THE TROUGH IS FAVORED
TO EXPAND WEST, PULLING THE BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE AREA. THE OTHER
HAZARD TO WATCH IS FOR BLOWING SNOW GIVEN THE POWDERY SNOW TYPE WE
OFTEN SEE WITH ARCTIC AIRMASS EVENTS. IF SNOW AMOUNTS BEGIN TO
EXCEED AN INCH OR TWO, WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHES OF LOW VISIBILITY AROUND A MILE. I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF
THERE ARE STRONGER WINDS IN EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY, BUT
LOOKS LIKE WIND GUSTS WOULD CAP OUT AT 40 MPH. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S WHILE OVERNIGHT
LOWS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST DAYS OF
THE PERIOD SO FAR, BOTH IN REGARDS TO LOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT FORECAST AS LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS
FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. WITH
WINDS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 MPH, WIND CHILLS MAY STAY NEAR ZERO
AND IN THE NEGATIVES FOR MOST OF THE TIME BETWEEN SATURDAY EVENING
AND TUESDAY MORNING. THAT BEING SAID, THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE HIGH MAY
NOT GET AS DEEP AND KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND TWENTIES. THIS LOOKS TO STEM FROM THE UPPER LOW
POTENTIALLY WIDENING OUT AS A TROUGH GETS LEFT BEHIND IN THE MAIN
FLOW WITH UPPER LOW SHIFTING EAST. IF THIS DID SHIFT THE SYSTEM
NORTH, SUNDAY MAY ALLOW A BRIEF REPRIEVE AND HAVE WIND CHILLS ABOVE
ZERO INSTEAD. LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE SPREADS AND TRENDS, HAVE DECIDED
TO STICK WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST OF COLDER TEMPERATURES AS THIS
MAY BE A ONE OFF. MONDAY COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED WITH A NORTHERLY
SHIFT IN THE TROUGH, THOUGH THERE IS LESS OF A CHANCE OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES. AS FOR SNOW, THE PRESENCE OF EITHER A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OR CUT-OFF LOW SUN/MON WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW,
WITH ACCUMULATIONS BEING LIGHT DUE TO LOW MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE QUESTION OF
WHETHER A CUT-OFF LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES, OR IF THE NEXT
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EVERYTHING EAST. WHILE THERE IS NOT A
CLEAR SIGNAL ONE WAY OR ANOTHER, IT DOES SUGGEST THAT THE NEXT RIDGE
WILL AT SOME POINT ON ONE OF THESE DAYS PUSH EVERYTHING OFF WHICH
WILL END THE COLD SPELL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 429 PM MST WED JAN 15 2025
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING, THEN INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
IN THE 20-25KT RANGE.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...KMK/KAK
AVIATION...024
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