620
FXUS63 KGLD 160940
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
240 AM MST THU JAN 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
- PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
- DRY WITH NOT AS COLD (BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL) TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 240 AM MST THU JAN 16 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE AS AN 850MB THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE AREA. UNDER A CLEAR SKY WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 50S TO NEAR 60. UNDER A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY, LOW
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. THERE WILL BE
SOME BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY
25 THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO MAYBE 35 MPH RANGE.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUD COVER INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND COOLER AIR WITH THE FIRST SHOT OF COOLER AIR MOVES IN.
NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
DAY, DECREASING A BIT OVERNIGHT.
A FAIRLY WIDE SWATH OF MOISTURE MOVES DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES. THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS, COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE TEMPERATURES
IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE WILL PRODUCE 20%-90% CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOWFALL, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 27 WHERE AMOUNTS GENERALLY FROM A
FEW TENTHS TO ONE INCH ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOWFALL CHANCES SLOWLY DECREASE FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY AS SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
SNOWFALL CHANCES ARE IN THE 30%-70% RANGE, HIGHEST ACROSS FAR
EASTERN COLORADO. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UNDER AN INCH
ARE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT, NO PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
THERE IS RATHER REMARKABLE AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE ON THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WHICH IS PRETTY UNUSUAL, ESPECIALLY IN THE
HANDLING OF ARCTIC AIRMASSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 159 AM MST THU JAN 16 2025
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WE STILL EXPECT TO SEE DANGEROUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES WITH SOME LINGERING SNOWFALL ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WE START OFF THE PERIOD IN THE MIDST OF A LARGE TROUGH CUTTING DEEP
INTO MOST OF THE CONUS. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE
WEST COAST WITH A CUTOFF LOW DISTURBING IT. DOWN AT THE SURFACE ON
SUNDAY, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS HIGH WILL WORK TO MOVE MORE
COLD AIR INTO THE REGION.
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY ONLY WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY FLOW. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK SUNDAY, AROUND 10 KTS, BUT IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM
THE HIGH INCREASES, THESE SPEEDS COULD INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS.
WHILE THE WINDS THEMSELVES ARE NOT MUCH OF A RISK, THE WIND CHILLS
ARE. MAXIMUM WIND CHILLS SUNDAY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN
1 TO 11F. IF WINDS PICK UP, THOSE NUMBERS WOULD DROP ANOTHER 3-6
DEGREES.
THE CAA CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WILL THE FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. AIR
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP TO AROUND -5 TO 0F. IN EASTERN COLORADO,
WIND CHILLS LOOK TO DROP TO AROUND -25 TO -20F MONDAY MORNING. THE
REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE -20 TO -10F WIND CHILLS. MONDAY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO WARM MUCH, LIKELY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.
THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW WARM MONDAY WILL BE.
PREVIOUS RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND CMC-NH WERE SHOWING THE CUTOFF
LOW (THE ONE OFF THE WEST COAST) WOULD INJECT INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION, INVITING THE TROUGH TO DIG DEEPER. IF THIS HAPPENS, MONDAY
WILL ONLY WARM TO AROUND 0F. THE CURRENT GFS AND ECMWF RUNS ARE
SHOWING THE LOW STAYS ADRIFT IN THE PACIFIC AND DOES NOT PULL THE
TROUGH ANY LOWER ON MONDAY, WHICH IS WHAT THE CURRENT FORECAST/GRIDS
REFLECT.
MONDAY NIGHT IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE COLDEST TIME OF THIS EVENT. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE DOMINATING THE GREAT PLAINS, SLOWLY CLEARING
OUT THE SKIES AND WEAKENING THE WINDS EVEN MORE. AS LONG AS THE
UPPER LOW STAYS OUT OF THE AREA, AIR TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO
AROUND -10 TO -2F. IF THE LOW COMBINES WITH THE TROUGH MONDAY,
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO THE -15 TO -5F RANGE. WIND
CHILLS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 27, RANGING FROM
-30 TO -20F. EAST OF THIS LINE, -20 TO -12F IS FORECAST WITH A FEW
POCKETS DOWN TO -25F.
THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED TO WHERE NEUTRALLY BUOYANT
AIR REMAINS SATURATED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. DUE TO THE HIGH AND
EFFICIENT CAA, THERE WILL BE A WIDE BOUNDARY SETTING UP ACROSS THE
CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE A LITTLE LIFT, BUT ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL (<0.1 INCHES
PER HOUR) WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL (0.1-0.3 INCHES
PER HOUR). BEST TIMING FOR SNOW APPEARS TO BE 0-12Z MONDAY, WHEN THE
SURFACE IS MOST LIKELY TO BE SATURATED BEFORE THE COLD, DRY AIR
MOVES IN. CHANCES FOR SEEING SNOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY INCREASE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA AND DECREASE TO THE NORTHEAST. RED WILLOW COUNTY
CURRENTLY HAS 15-20 POPS, THE LOWEST IN THE CWA. CONVERSELY, KIT
CARSON, CO IS SITTING AROUND 50-55 POPS. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY AS THE HIGH SPREADS OVER THE CWA AND THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DRIES UP.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST AS THE CUTOFF LOW WEAKENS. THIS RIDGE WOULD BE
REFLECTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS, TOO. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KTS
ARE EXPECTED FROM THE RIDGE, PROMOTING WAA. TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY WARM INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. ONLY ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA COULD GET ABOVE FREEZING AS REMAIN SNOWPACK
WILL REFLECT MOST SUNLIGHT AND ABSORB A LOT OF THE ADDITIONAL HEAT.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY LOWER IF WE HAVE NO UPPER-LEVEL
CLOUDS. THE CMC-NH HAS A DIFFERENT SOLUTION THAT INVOLVES THE CUTOFF
LOW CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE CWA TUESDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES ONLY WARMING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S TUESDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PLAYING OUT IS ONLY ABOUT 20%.
WEDNESDAY, THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES AND MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
WARM ABOVE FREEZING, WITH THE SNOWPACK LIMITING THE WESTERN CWA.
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY, THE MELTING SNOW SNOW ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT
CLOUD COVER, KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS.
LIST OF ACRONYMS
NBM - NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS
GFS - GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM
GEFS - GFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM
ECMWF - EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
CMC-NH - CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
CAA - COLD AIR ADVECTION
WAA - WARM AIR ADVECTION
POP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
PBL - PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER
LLJ - LOW LEVEL JET
RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY
F/C - FAHRENHEIT/CELSIUS
MB - MILLIBAR
KTS - KNOTS
Z - ZULU TIME (UTC)
CWA - COUNTY WARNING AREA
CONUS - CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 240 AM MST THU JAN 16 2025
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
WEST WIND UP TO 10KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 16Z, GUSTING UP TO 25KTS FROM 19Z-23Z. AT 00Z, SOUTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 11KTS ARE FORECAST, VEERING TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS AROUND 08Z THEN NORTHWEST AROUND 11Z.
KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
WEST WIND UP TO 10KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
AT SIMILAR SPEEDS FROM 18Z-21Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS ARE
FORECAST FROM 22Z-05Z. AFTER 06Z, SOUTHWEST WINDS VEER TO THE
WEST AT SPEEDS UNDER 10KTS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...99
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