843
FXUS63 KGLD 161934
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1234 PM MST THU JAN 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
- PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
- DRY WITH NOT AS COLD (BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL) TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 240 AM MST THU JAN 16 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE AS AN 850MB THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE AREA. UNDER A CLEAR SKY WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 50S TO NEAR 60. UNDER A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY, LOW
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. THERE WILL BE
SOME BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY
25 THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO MAYBE 35 MPH RANGE.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUD COVER INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND COOLER AIR WITH THE FIRST SHOT OF COOLER AIR MOVES IN.
NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
DAY, DECREASING A BIT OVERNIGHT.
A FAIRLY WIDE SWATH OF MOISTURE MOVES DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES. THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS, COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE TEMPERATURES
IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE WILL PRODUCE 20%-90% CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOWFALL, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 27 WHERE AMOUNTS GENERALLY FROM A
FEW TENTHS TO ONE INCH ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOWFALL CHANCES SLOWLY DECREASE FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY AS SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
SNOWFALL CHANCES ARE IN THE 30%-70% RANGE, HIGHEST ACROSS FAR
EASTERN COLORADO. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UNDER AN INCH
ARE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT, NO PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
THERE IS RATHER REMARKABLE AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE ON THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WHICH IS PRETTY UNUSUAL, ESPECIALLY IN THE
HANDLING OF ARCTIC AIRMASSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 PM MST THU JAN 16 2025
FROM THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF, NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST
AREA-WIDE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN AMPLIFIED 500MB RIDGE RESIDES
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY, WITH A CLOSED LOW IN THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE DOES MOVE SOUTH ALONG
THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN THE SUN-MON TIMEFRAME. THE SYSTEM WILL
ACCOMPANY THE REMAINDER OF THE ARCTIC AIR BEFORE THE REGION SEES A
WARMUP FROM NEXT TUESDAY ONWARD. THIS WILL PUT THE MAIN WX CONCERNS
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AS WELL AS COLD WIND CHILL READINGS
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
FOR THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM, THE TWO MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE
PLACEMENT/MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST, WHICH WILL
ULTIMATE REFLECT IN THE POSITIONING OF THE SNOW POTENTIAL OVER THE
CWA. AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG RIDGE PUSHING SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE ROCKIES WILL ALSO AID IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOWFALL.
WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING -12C TO -18C, THE SURGE OF COLD AND DRY AIR
WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO MAINLY COLORADO AND
HWY 40 SOUTH. OVERALL THERE IS A 25-40% CHANCE FOR SNOW W/ FLURRIES
POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL AND SOME EASTERN LOCALES. THERE WILL BE AN
EASTERLY FETCH DURING THIS TIME THAT WILL PROVIDE AN UPSLOPE
COMPONENT TO PUT MORE FOCUS ON THESE ACCUMULATION AREAS. WITH SNOW
RATIOS APPROACHING 20:1 SNOWFALL WILL BE FLUFFY. SOME WIND GUSTS IN
COLORADO WILL APPROACH THE 20-25 MPH RANGE, SO SOME ISOLATED BLOWING
SNOW CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE. ANY MOVEMENT IN THE TRACK/SPEED OF THE
RIDGE AS IT MOVES S/SE WILL GREATLY INCREASE/DECREASE THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF SNOW POTENTIAL.
WHILE UPDATED GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOWS A FEW DEGREES
IMPROVEMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHIFT, MAINLY BELOW ZERO
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FOR TUESDAY ONWARD, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO
WORK INTO THE CWA BY LATE WEEK, BUT OVERALL WARMER CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL, ESPECIALLY TUE-WED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
ROCKIES THAT PROVIDES A S/SW FLOW OVER THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE MID TO LATE WEEK SYSTEM DOES BRING SOME TEMPERATURES THAT COULD
RANGE WIDELY DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST, BUT DEFINITELY
WARMER FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
FOR TEMPS, HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR MONDAY WITH LOWER TO MID TEENS EXPECTED(COLDEST
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO). FOR NEXT TUESDAY ONWARD, MUCH WARMER WITH
A MIX OF 30S AND 40S AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES(MOST WARMEST LOCALES
EAST OF HIGHWAY 25).
OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO, GIVING WAY TO SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AREA-WIDE. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD, WARMER WITH TEENS
EXPECTED EACH NIGHT AREA-WIDE.
BESIDES THE COLD TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS, WIND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WILL CREATE SOME DANGEROUS WIND CHILL
READINGS. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE READINGS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE
NUMBERS TO MID TEENS BELOW ZERO FOR AREAS EAST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER. IN COLORADO, MID TO UPPER TEENS BELOW ZERO. GOING INTO
MONDAY NIGHT, TEENS BELOW ZERO AREA-WIDE, WORSE IN COLORADO. SOME OR
ALL OF THE CWA EACH NIGHT MIGHT NEED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AS A
RESULT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 846 AM MST THU JAN 16 2025
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z
FRIDAY, THEN A SHIFT NORTH-NORTHWEST DUE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. SPEEDS 10KTS THROUGH 16Z, THEN AROUND
20-30KTS. LLWS 10Z-18Z FRIDAY 350@50KTS.
KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS THROUGH 11Z FRIDAY,
THEN BECOMING WESTERLY. BY 14Z, BECOMING NORTHWEST DUE TO A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 10-15KTS. GUSTS TO 30KTS FROM 16Z
ONWARD. LLWS 11Z-16Z FRIDAY 320-340@40 TO 45KTS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN
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