327
FXUS63 KGLD 162148
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
248 PM MST THU JAN 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.
- COLD DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.
- PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 27 INTO COLORADO. ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY.
- DRY WITH NOT AS COLD (BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL) TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST THU JAN 16 2025
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, SKIES ARE SUNNY AS A NICE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA IS GIVING THE REGION ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. GUSTS AT TIMES ARE REACHING INTO THE 15-25
MPH RANGE IN SOME LOCALES.
THE MAIN WX CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE
ABRUPT CHANGE FROM WARM ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY, TO MUCH
COLDER AS THE ARRIVAL OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS ALONG WITH SNOW CHANCES
BRINGS WINTER BACK TO THE TRI STATE REGION.
THE LATEST RAP40 500MB ANALYSIS AND MID LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ARE SHOWING A BROAD RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY, PUSHING NW FLOW ALOFT INTO THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE CWA, COMBINED WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN
EASTERN COLORADO, IS GIVING ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH TO THE REGION.
GRADIENT IS TIGHT IN SOME LOCALES WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-30 MPH.
LAV/NBM HOURLY GUIDANCE SHOWS PERSISTENCE IN THIS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING SOME.
GOING INTO TONIGHT, NAM/GFS GUIDANCE BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE (AFTER 06Z) WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM WEST AND EVENTUALLY
NORTH-NORTHWEST BY 12Z-15Z FRIDAY AREA-WIDE. GUSTS UP TO THE 20-30
MPH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE, BUT DECENT MIXING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTS
TO APPROACH THE 50 MPH BRIEFLY, ESPECIALLY IN COLORADO.
CURRENT GUIDANCE IS MIXED AS TO THE TRACK OF A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE SET TO DROP S/SE ALONG THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST FOR
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
WILL BE A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BRINGING IN COLDER AND DRIER AIR FROM
THE NORTH. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE SYSTEM TO TRACK OVER EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO, EXITING SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY. LOW
QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH MOSTLY OROGRAPHIC, UPSLOPE EFFECTS WILL
BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW FROM MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 INTO
COLORADO. BASED ON THE TRACK, THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATION WILL BE IN COLORADO(60-90%) ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY
385. A 25-50% CHANCE EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. WITH THE DRIER AIR
MOVING SOUTH, THERE WILL BE A PEAK OF ABOUT 18-20:1 SNOW RATIOS,
MEANING A FLUFFY SNOW IS EXPECTED. LOOKING FOR 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IN
COLORADO TAPERING OFF TO A FEW TENTHS WORKING EAST. KIT CARSON AND
CHEYENNE COUNTIES WILL SEE THE MOST ACCUM, CLOSE TO 2 INCHES WEST OF
HIGHWAY 385, W/ SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES. AS A RESULT
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES IN COLORADO FROM 00Z SATURDAY THRU 20Z SATURDAY. SOME
BLOWING SNOW IN THIS AREA IS POSSIBLE W/ GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH.
TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE.
ANY PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY 18Z-20Z GIVING WAY TO
A SURGE OF COLD AIR GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
SATURDAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE RANGING FROM -9C TO -14C BY 00Z SUNDAY AND
-13C TO -18C BY 12Z.
FOR TEMPS, HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE WIDELY FROM THE LOW 40S TO THE
LOW 50S. WARMEST LOCALES WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK,
NEBRASKA DOWN TO TRIBUNE, KANSAS. GOING INTO SATURDAY, COLDEST WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S TONIGHT GIVE WAY TO TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
A MIX OF SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND
CHILL READINGS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS
ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. SATURDAY NIGHT, SINGLE NUMBERS TO LOWER TEENS
BELOW ZERO.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 PM MST THU JAN 16 2025
FROM THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF, NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST
AREA-WIDE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN AMPLIFIED 500MB RIDGE RESIDES
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY, WITH A CLOSED LOW IN THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE DOES MOVE SOUTH ALONG
THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN THE SUN-MON TIMEFRAME. THE SYSTEM WILL
ACCOMPANY THE REMAINDER OF THE ARCTIC AIR BEFORE THE REGION SEES A
WARMUP FROM NEXT TUESDAY ONWARD. THIS WILL PUT THE MAIN WX CONCERNS
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AS WELL AS COLD WIND CHILL READINGS
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
FOR THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM, THE TWO MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE
PLACEMENT/MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST, WHICH WILL
ULTIMATE REFLECT IN THE POSITIONING OF THE SNOW POTENTIAL OVER THE
CWA. AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG RIDGE PUSHING SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE ROCKIES WILL ALSO AID IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOWFALL.
WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING -12C TO -18C, THE SURGE OF COLD AND DRY AIR
WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO MAINLY COLORADO AND
HWY 40 SOUTH. OVERALL THERE IS A 25-40% CHANCE FOR SNOW W/ FLURRIES
POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL AND SOME EASTERN LOCALES. THERE WILL BE AN
EASTERLY FETCH DURING THIS TIME THAT WILL PROVIDE AN UPSLOPE
COMPONENT TO PUT MORE FOCUS ON THESE ACCUMULATION AREAS. WITH SNOW
RATIOS APPROACHING 20:1 SNOWFALL WILL BE FLUFFY. SOME WIND GUSTS IN
COLORADO WILL APPROACH THE 20-25 MPH RANGE, SO SOME ISOLATED BLOWING
SNOW CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE. ANY MOVEMENT IN THE TRACK/SPEED OF THE
RIDGE AS IT MOVES S/SE WILL GREATLY INCREASE/DECREASE THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF SNOW POTENTIAL.
WHILE UPDATED GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOWS A FEW DEGREES
IMPROVEMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHIFT, MAINLY BELOW ZERO
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FOR TUESDAY ONWARD, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO
WORK INTO THE CWA BY LATE WEEK, BUT OVERALL WARMER CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL, ESPECIALLY TUE-WED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
ROCKIES THAT PROVIDES A S/SW FLOW OVER THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE MID TO LATE WEEK SYSTEM DOES BRING SOME TEMPERATURES THAT COULD
RANGE WIDELY DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST, BUT DEFINITELY
WARMER FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
FOR TEMPS, HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR MONDAY WITH LOWER TO MID TEENS EXPECTED(COLDEST
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO). FOR NEXT TUESDAY ONWARD, MUCH WARMER WITH
A MIX OF 30S AND 40S AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES(MOST WARMEST LOCALES
EAST OF HIGHWAY 25).
OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO, GIVING WAY TO SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AREA-WIDE. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD, WARMER WITH TEENS
EXPECTED EACH NIGHT AREA-WIDE.
BESIDES THE COLD TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS, WIND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WILL CREATE SOME DANGEROUS WIND CHILL
READINGS. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE READINGS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE
NUMBERS TO MID TEENS BELOW ZERO FOR AREAS EAST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER. IN COLORADO, MID TO UPPER TEENS BELOW ZERO. GOING INTO
MONDAY NIGHT, TEENS BELOW ZERO AREA-WIDE, WORSE IN COLORADO. SOME OR
ALL OF THE CWA EACH NIGHT MIGHT NEED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AS A
RESULT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 846 AM MST THU JAN 16 2025
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z
FRIDAY, THEN A SHIFT NORTH-NORTHWEST DUE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. SPEEDS 10KTS THROUGH 16Z, THEN AROUND
20-30KTS. LLWS 10Z-18Z FRIDAY 350@50KTS.
KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS THROUGH 11Z FRIDAY,
THEN BECOMING WESTERLY. BY 14Z, BECOMING NORTHWEST DUE TO A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 10-15KTS. GUSTS TO 30KTS FROM 16Z
ONWARD. LLWS 11Z-16Z FRIDAY 320-340@40 TO 45KTS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 2 PM MST SATURDAY
FOR COZ091-092.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page