933
FXUS63 KGLD 170849
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
149 AM MST FRI JAN 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.
- COLD DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.
- PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 27 INTO COLORADO. ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURES START REBOUNDING MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST THU JAN 16 2025
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, SKIES ARE SUNNY AS A NICE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA IS GIVING THE REGION ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. GUSTS AT TIMES ARE REACHING INTO THE 15-25
MPH RANGE IN SOME LOCALES.
THE MAIN WX CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE
ABRUPT CHANGE FROM WARM ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY, TO MUCH
COLDER AS THE ARRIVAL OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS ALONG WITH SNOW CHANCES
BRINGS WINTER BACK TO THE TRI STATE REGION.
THE LATEST RAP40 500MB ANALYSIS AND MID LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ARE SHOWING A BROAD RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY, PUSHING NW FLOW ALOFT INTO THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE CWA, COMBINED WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN
EASTERN COLORADO, IS GIVING ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH TO THE REGION.
GRADIENT IS TIGHT IN SOME LOCALES WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-30 MPH.
LAV/NBM HOURLY GUIDANCE SHOWS PERSISTENCE IN THIS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING SOME.
GOING INTO TONIGHT, NAM/GFS GUIDANCE BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE (AFTER 06Z) WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM WEST AND EVENTUALLY
NORTH-NORTHWEST BY 12Z-15Z FRIDAY AREA-WIDE. GUSTS UP TO THE 20-30
MPH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE, BUT DECENT MIXING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTS
TO APPROACH THE 50 MPH BRIEFLY, ESPECIALLY IN COLORADO.
CURRENT GUIDANCE IS MIXED AS TO THE TRACK OF A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE SET TO DROP S/SE ALONG THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST FOR
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
WILL BE A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BRINGING IN COLDER AND DRIER AIR FROM
THE NORTH. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE SYSTEM TO TRACK OVER EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO, EXITING SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY. LOW
QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH MOSTLY OROGRAPHIC, UPSLOPE EFFECTS WILL
BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW FROM MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 INTO
COLORADO. BASED ON THE TRACK, THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATION WILL BE IN COLORADO(60-90%) ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY
385. A 25-50% CHANCE EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. WITH THE DRIER AIR
MOVING SOUTH, THERE WILL BE A PEAK OF ABOUT 18-20:1 SNOW RATIOS,
MEANING A FLUFFY SNOW IS EXPECTED. LOOKING FOR 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IN
COLORADO TAPERING OFF TO A FEW TENTHS WORKING EAST. KIT CARSON AND
CHEYENNE COUNTIES WILL SEE THE MOST ACCUM, CLOSE TO 2 INCHES WEST OF
HIGHWAY 385, W/ SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES. AS A RESULT
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES IN COLORADO FROM 00Z SATURDAY THRU 20Z SATURDAY. SOME
BLOWING SNOW IN THIS AREA IS POSSIBLE W/ GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH.
TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE.
ANY PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY 18Z-20Z GIVING WAY TO
A SURGE OF COLD AIR GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
SATURDAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE RANGING FROM -9C TO -14C BY 00Z SUNDAY AND
-13C TO -18C BY 12Z.
FOR TEMPS, HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE WIDELY FROM THE LOW 40S TO THE
LOW 50S. WARMEST LOCALES WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK,
NEBRASKA DOWN TO TRIBUNE, KANSAS. GOING INTO SATURDAY, COLDEST WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S TONIGHT GIVE WAY TO TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
A MIX OF SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND
CHILL READINGS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS
ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. SATURDAY NIGHT, SINGLE NUMBERS TO LOWER TEENS
BELOW ZERO.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 147 AM MST FRI JAN 17 2025
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, WE STILL EXPECT TO SEE DANGEROUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES WITH SOME LINGERING SNOWFALL ENDING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WE START OFF THE PERIOD IN THE MIDST OF A LARGE TROUGH CUTTING DEEP
INTO MOST OF THE CONUS. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ON THE
WEST COAST WITH A CUTOFF LOW DISTURBING IT. DOWN AT THE SURFACE, A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE GREAT PLAINS
AND MIDWEST, MOVING MORE COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO
BE AN 850 MB HIGH AROUND THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA/TEXAS BORDER. THIS
HIGH WILL BE MOVING WARMER AIR INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE CAA CONTINUES MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY AROUND 10F.
DUE TO HOW FAR NORTHWEST THE 850 MB HIGH EXTENDS, THERE IS NOTABLE
DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW WARM MONDAY WILL BE. IF THE HIGH EXTENDS
FARTHER NORTHWEST, LOCATIONS AS FAR AS A LINE FROM AROUND KIT
CARSON, CO TO BENKELMAN, NE WOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID
TEENS. IF THE HIGH STAYS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA, HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. THE CURRENT FORECAST SPLITS THE
DIFFERENCE SINCE THERE ARE NO CLEAR SIGNS WHICH IS MORE LIKELY TO
OCCUR.
THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE DRIES OUT AND THE
HIGHS MOVE IN. GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF SNOW MONDAY MORNING, BUT NOTHING OVERLY IMPACTFUL IS
EXPECTED.
MONDAY NIGHT'S TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO HEAVILY DEPEND ON WHAT THE 850
MB HIGH DOES. DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT,
WINDS FROM THE WEST WILL EITHER BE STRONGER (AROUND 10 KTS) AND KEEP
US MIXED, OR WIND WILL BE CALM, INTENSIFYING RADIATIONAL COOLING. IF
WE STAY PARTIALLY MIXED, WHICH HAS ABOUT A 55% CHANCE OF OCCURRING,
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 0-4F FOR THE AREA. IF THE WIND ARE
CALM, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO AROUND -10 TO -2F. IF WE STAY
MIXED, WIND CHILLS WILL CONSISTENTLY BE AROUND THE -10 TO -25F AREA,
WITH THE WESTERN CWA BEING THE COLDEST. IF THE WIND REMAINS CALM,
WIND CHILLS WILL GENERALLY BE RIGHT AROUND THE AIR TEMPERATURE.
HOWEVER, OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF WIND AROUND 5-10 KTS SHOULD STILL BE
EXPECTED AND DURING THOSE TIME, WIND CHILLS COULD DROP AS LOW AS -30.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE GFS HAS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST AS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS WOULD
QUICKLY WARM THE CWA, WITH BOTH DAYS POTENTIALLY SEEING MID TO UPPER
30S, AND LOW 40S ON WEDNESDAY. CONVERSELY, THE CMC-NH HAS THE LOW
DISSOLVING INTO THE LARGE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE REMAINING OFF THE
WEST COAST. IF THIS IS THE CASE, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY WARM
INTO THE MID 20S TUESDAY AND LOW TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND
GEFS MEAN HAVE SOLUTIONS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO, LOWERING CONFIDENCE
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE TEENS,
MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THURSDAY, ANOTHER TROUGH LOOKS TO SWEEP THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS,
LOWERING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S YET AGAIN. THIS DOES APPEAR
TO BE A DRY TROUGH, SO NO PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. A
RIDGE APPEARS TO CLOSELY FOLLOW THIS LATE WEEK TROUGH, SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND WITHIN A DAY OR TWO.
LIST OF ACRONYMS
NBM - NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS
GFS - GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM
GEFS - GFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM
ECMWF - EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
CMC-NH - CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
CAA - COLD AIR ADVECTION
WAA - WARM AIR ADVECTION
POP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
PBL - PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER
LLJ - LOW LEVEL JET
RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY
F/C - FAHRENHEIT/CELSIUS
MB - MILLIBAR
KTS - KNOTS
Z - ZULU TIME (UTC)
CWA - COUNTY WARNING AREA
CONUS - CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1018 PM MST THU JAN 16 2025
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ON FRIDAY, FIRST ALOFT
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH A 40-50KT NORTHERLY JET AT
AROUND 1KFT AGL, THEN AT THE SURFACE LATE FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-45KT
RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS APPROXIMATELY 18Z-22Z
TOMORROW. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT KGLD FRIDAY
EVENING WITH SOME MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND LOWERING
CEILINGS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM MST
SATURDAY FOR COZ091-092.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...024
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