683
FXUS63 KGLD 180116
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
616 PM MST FRI JAN 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOWFALL REMAINS FORECASTED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WITH KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN COLORADO MOST
LIKELY TO SEE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UP TO 3 INCHES. A POWDERY
SNOW MAY RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW.
- AN EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS WIND CHILLS OF -15
TO -30 DEGREES ARE FORECAST.
- TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECASTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 615 PM MST FRI JAN 17 2025
LOOKING AT LOCAL RADAR UP INTO THE YUMA COUNTY AREA. LIGHT,
SCATTERED ECHOES ARE SHOWING UP IN NW PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY.
LOCAL OBS/OBS TO THE WEST, ARE GIVING A 4-6SM IN LIGHT SNOW. THE
T/TD GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED SOME IN THESE LOCALES, BUT SLOWING
MOVING SOUTH/EAST INTO MUCH DRIER AIR. 2V5(WRAY, CO) HAS AN 11
DEGREE SPREAD(DRY), SO EXPECTING LIGHT FLUFFY ACCUM IF IT
OCCURS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 208 PM MST FRI JAN 17 2025
STRONG PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE AREA IN WAKE OF THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONT HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF
40+ MPH ALONG WITH SOME SPLOTCHY 60+ MPH GUSTS ACROSS CHEYENNE
COUNTY COLORADO. THIS HAS ALSO MANAGED TO CREATE SOME PLUMES OF DUST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS OUR COOP OBSERVER IN THE
TOWN OF KIT CARSON IN CHEYENNE COUNTY REPORTED 150 YARDS IN
VISIBILITY; THERE WAS ALSO ANOTHER MPING REPORT OF DUST IN SHARON
SPRINGS AS WELL. AS PRESSURE RISES LESSEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ALONG WITH THE BLOWING DUST
THREAT, BUT STILL BE BREEZY THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION SETS IN. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
IN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOWS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO MID TEENS; FORECASTED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM REACHING THEIR FULL COLD POTENTIAL TONIGHT; WIND CHILLS
HOWEVER WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE
COLDEST AROUND 10 BELOW ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WHERE THE
COLDEST PORTION OF THIS AIR MASS DOES LOOK TO RESIDE AT.
SNOW WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
STARTING THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. CROSS SECTION
ANALYSIS SHOWS LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL ENTERING YUMA COUNTY AROUND 6-
7PM MT BEFORE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THE STRONGEST
LIFT OF AROUND 8-10 MICROBARS PER SECOND LOOKS TO OCCUR ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN COLORADO
WHERE AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES DOES REMAIN POSSIBLE. I AM SEEING
SOME ELEVATED CAPE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME NARROW AREAS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE COUNTY LINE.
CONTINUING TO EXPECT A FLUFFY SNOW SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
BLOWING SNOW AS IT IS FALLING OVERNIGHT AS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 20-30 MPH. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE SAME AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AS THAT IS WHERE THE MOST LIKELY POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST 2 INCH
SNOW DEPTH LIES WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS AS
WINDS AGAIN GUST AROUND 25 MPH THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. WE WILL
ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FLASH FREEZING CONDITIONS AS GROUND
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING FROM THE MILD
CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST 48 OR SO HOURS.
NOW ONTO THE TEMPERATURES, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN HIGH IN
THE WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST DAY HIGH TEMPERATURE WISE
DOES APPEAR TO BE MONDAY AS ANOTHER LOBE OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER
COLD AIR ADVECTION WORKS INTO THE AREA; HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A
CONCERN I DO HAVE REGARDING TEMPERATURES, IS THAT ARCTIC AIR
MASSES ARE VERY SHALLOW ARE GUIDANCE DOES STRUGGLE TEMPERATURE
WISE WHEN IT COMES TO THAT ASPECT. OVERALL I'VE BEEN TRYING TO
LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN MOST GUIDANCE AS I'M CONCERNED THAT
THERE DOES CONTINUE TO LIE A WARM BIAS GIVEN THE MILD WINTER
THUS FAR. THE OTHER REASON THAT I'M CONCERNED I'M NOT LOW ENOUGH
YET IS THAT DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VERY DRY, AROUND
-20F OR EVEN LOWER THAN THAT. OVERALL, AT NIGHT IF WE DO GET ANY
CLEARING AND WINDS LET UP A LITTLE BIT AS THEY ARE FORECAST TO
DO ESPECIALLY SUNDAY/MONDAY AND MONDAY/TUESDAY THEN
TEMPERATURES HAVE A REAL CHANCE TO PLUMMET AND IT WON'T TAKE
MUCH OF ANY WIND AT ALL TO DROP WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO EXTREME
COLD WARNING CRITERIA OF -25 OR COLDER. THIS IS THE REASON AS
TO WHY I'M GOING WITH THE EXTREME COLD WATCH FOR THE CWA AND
NOT THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ROUTE AS SURROUNDING OFFICES.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH TO VERY HIGH IN AT LEAST -15 WIND
CHILLS OCCURRING DURING THE PERIOD OF THE WATCH WHICH RUNS FROM
5PM SATURDAY THROUGH 11AM MT TUESDAY, HOWEVER THERE IS STILL
ENOUGH CONCERN FOR TEMPERATURES TO BECOME EVEN COLDER. THE
COLDEST PART OF THE WATCH FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES DOES LOOK TO
BE TUESDAY MORNING, SO DUE TO ALL OF THIS ANTICIPATED METHOD
OF POTENTIAL UPGRADES WILL COME AS A NIGHTLY TARGETED APPROACH
OF EITHER ADVISORY OR WARNING. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW REMAINS FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE
MORNING MONDAY, CURRENTLY LOOKING MINIMAL FOR AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS WAVE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 208 PM MST FRI JAN 17 2025
TUESDAY, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WSW WHICH WILL HELP WARM THE AREA UP
VERY QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY TO ABOVE FREEZING AND ENDING THIS COLD
SNAP. RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AS
WE ARE FORECAST TO SEE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE MONTH.
A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO OCCUR
WEDNESDAY EVENING BRINGING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
FREEZING BUT AT THIS TIME AM NOT SEEING ANY INCREASE OF MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS TIME. INTO THE LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONFIDENCE THEN BECOMES MORE
MURKY AS THERE SOME HINTS AT ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING WITH
SOME POTENTIAL TO WORK WITH A LITTLE BIT MORE MOISTURE. THERE IS
NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT WITH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AT THIS TIME TO
INTRODUCE ANYTHING INTO THE FORECAST BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WELL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 346 PM MST FRI JAN 17 2025
FOR KGLD, VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 07Z SATURDAY, THEN
CEILINGS DOWN TO BKN020-030 AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS. THERE IS A
PROB30 WITH 2SM IN SNOW FROM 07Z-12Z SATURDAY WHERE THE SNOW
MAY BE MOST INTENSE. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME UNTIL MORE OF
THE SNOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT, SO TIMING/VISIBILITY REDUCTION IS
MOSTLY LIKELY TO CHANGE. WINDS, NORTH-NORTHEAST 25-40KTS
THROUGH ABOUT 07Z SATURDAY, THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND
15-25KTS. THERE COULD BE A DROP TO THE 10-15KT RANGE FROM
12Z-15Z.
FOR KMCK, LOOKING FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CEILINGS FROM 08Z-12Z
SATURDAY AROUND BKN030. WINDS, NORTH AROUND 20-30KTS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST. FROM 08Z-12Z SATURDAY, DROPPING DOWN TO
THE 10-15KT RANGE.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR COZ090>092.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ091-092.
NE...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR NEZ079>081.
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...JN
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