915
FXUS63 KGLD 180826
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
126 AM MST SAT JAN 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOWFALL REMAINS FORECASTED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WITH KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN COLORADO MOST
LIKELY TO SEE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UP TO 3 INCHES. A POWDERY
SNOW MAY RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW.
- AN EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS WIND CHILLS OF -15
TO -30 DEGREES ARE FORECAST.
- TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECASTED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 208 PM MST FRI JAN 17 2025
STRONG PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE AREA IN WAKE OF THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONT HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF
40+ MPH ALONG WITH SOME SPLOTCHY 60+ MPH GUSTS ACROSS CHEYENNE
COUNTY COLORADO. THIS HAS ALSO MANAGED TO CREATE SOME PLUMES OF DUST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS OUR COOP OBSERVER IN THE
TOWN OF KIT CARSON IN CHEYENNE COUNTY REPORTED 150 YARDS IN
VISIBILITY; THERE WAS ALSO ANOTHER MPING REPORT OF DUST IN SHARON
SPRINGS AS WELL. AS PRESSURE RISES LESSEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ALONG WITH THE BLOWING DUST
THREAT, BUT STILL BE BREEZY THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION SETS IN. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
IN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOWS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO MID TEENS; FORECASTED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM REACHING THEIR FULL COLD POTENTIAL TONIGHT; WIND CHILLS
HOWEVER WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE
COLDEST AROUND 10 BELOW ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WHERE THE
COLDEST PORTION OF THIS AIR MASS DOES LOOK TO RESIDE AT.
SNOW WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
STARTING THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. CROSS SECTION
ANALYSIS SHOWS LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL ENTERING YUMA COUNTY AROUND 6-
7PM MT BEFORE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THE STRONGEST
LIFT OF AROUND 8-10 MICROBARS PER SECOND LOOKS TO OCCUR ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN COLORADO
WHERE AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES DOES REMAIN POSSIBLE. I AM SEEING
SOME ELEVATED CAPE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME NARROW AREAS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE COUNTY LINE.
CONTINUING TO EXPECT A FLUFFY SNOW SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
BLOWING SNOW AS IT IS FALLING OVERNIGHT AS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 20-30 MPH. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE SAME AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AS THAT IS WHERE THE MOST LIKELY POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST 2 INCH
SNOW DEPTH LIES WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS AS
WINDS AGAIN GUST AROUND 25 MPH THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. WE WILL
ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FLASH FREEZING CONDITIONS AS GROUND
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING FROM THE MILD
CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST 48 OR SO HOURS.
NOW ONTO THE TEMPERATURES, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN HIGH IN
THE WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST DAY HIGH TEMPERATURE WISE
DOES APPEAR TO BE MONDAY AS ANOTHER LOBE OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER
COLD AIR ADVECTION WORKS INTO THE AREA; HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A
CONCERN I DO HAVE REGARDING TEMPERATURES, IS THAT ARCTIC AIR
MASSES ARE VERY SHALLOW ARE GUIDANCE DOES STRUGGLE TEMPERATURE
WISE WHEN IT COMES TO THAT ASPECT. OVERALL I'VE BEEN TRYING TO
LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN MOST GUIDANCE AS I'M CONCERNED THAT
THERE DOES CONTINUE TO LIE A WARM BIAS GIVEN THE MILD WINTER
THUS FAR. THE OTHER REASON THAT I'M CONCERNED I'M NOT LOW ENOUGH
YET IS THAT DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VERY DRY, AROUND
-20F OR EVEN LOWER THAN THAT. OVERALL, AT NIGHT IF WE DO GET ANY
CLEARING AND WINDS LET UP A LITTLE BIT AS THEY ARE FORECAST TO
DO ESPECIALLY SUNDAY/MONDAY AND MONDAY/TUESDAY THEN
TEMPERATURES HAVE A REAL CHANCE TO PLUMMET AND IT WON'T TAKE
MUCH OF ANY WIND AT ALL TO DROP WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO EXTREME
COLD WARNING CRITERIA OF -25 OR COLDER. THIS IS THE REASON AS
TO WHY I'M GOING WITH THE EXTREME COLD WATCH FOR THE CWA AND
NOT THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ROUTE AS SURROUNDING OFFICES.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH TO VERY HIGH IN AT LEAST -15 WIND
CHILLS OCCURRING DURING THE PERIOD OF THE WATCH WHICH RUNS FROM
5PM SATURDAY THROUGH 11AM MT TUESDAY, HOWEVER THERE IS STILL
ENOUGH CONCERN FOR TEMPERATURES TO BECOME EVEN COLDER. THE
COLDEST PART OF THE WATCH FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES DOES LOOK TO
BE TUESDAY MORNING, SO DUE TO ALL OF THIS ANTICIPATED METHOD
OF POTENTIAL UPGRADES WILL COME AS A NIGHTLY TARGETED APPROACH
OF EITHER ADVISORY OR WARNING. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW REMAINS FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE
MORNING MONDAY, CURRENTLY LOOKING MINIMAL FOR AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS WAVE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 124 AM MST SAT JAN 18 2025
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS RUNNING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO AROUND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA AREA. A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE PACIFIC.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY, THIS HIGH WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND, BUT
ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL WEAKEN THE HIGH AND PREVENT IT FROM
SETTLING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. AROUND 0Z THURSDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA. ABOUT THAT SAME TIME,
ANOTHER HIGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST, MOVING THE TROUGH
OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING.
DOWN AT 850 MB, A HIGH WILL BE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR
CORNERS AREA INTO NORTHWESTERN TEXAS. THIS WILL PROMOTE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY, LIKELY IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY, DUE TO SOME LIGHT CLOUD COVER AND 5-10 KTS
MIXING WINDS, ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
MUCH LIKE ITS UPPER-LEVEL COUNTER-PART, THE CLIPPER WILL OVERRIDE THE
HIGH BY WEDNESDAY MID-DAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA SOME TIME WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITH
THIS FROPA, SO PRECIPITATION LOOKS UNLIKELY. THE TIMING AND SPEED OF
THIS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY. THE EARLIER IT ARRIVES, THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE,
POTENTIALLY MAXING OUT IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. IF THE FRONT IS SLOW,
TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THE 1Z
NBM MEAN FAVORS THE SLOWER ARRIVAL. HOWEVER, GFS, ECMWF, AND CMC-NH
GUIDANCE ALL SHOW THE 850 MB FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CWA BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY, WHICH WOULD FAVOR QUICKER FROPA TIMING. BEHIND THIS
FRONT, WINDS LOOK TO BE PRETTY STRONG. GFS AND CMC-NH GUIDANCE SHOW
THE 850 MB LLJ SPEEDING UP TO AROUND 40-50 KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WITH THIS OCCURRING AROUND 12Z, THERE SHOULD BE A PBL INVERSION,
PREVENTING THESE WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THERE IS A
~20% CHANCE THIS INVERSION DOES NOT PREVENT MIXING AND SURFACE GUSTS
AROUND 40+ KTS WOULD OCCUR. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE TOO
IMPACTED, STILL COOLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS; AREAS WITH
SNOWPACK COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT, THE 850 MB LEVEL IS NOT. THE GFS IS SHOWING A
PROLONGED 30-40 KTS 850 MB NORTHWESTERLY LLJ CONTINUING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF AND CMC-NH ARE SHOWING A MUCH WEAKER LLJ,
AROUND 10-25 KTS, IF THAT CAN EVEN BE CONSIDERED A JET. WITH A
STRONGER JET, EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, LIKE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S THURSDAY AND 30S FRIDAY. WITH A WEAKER LLJ,
TEMPERATURES COULD WARM INTO THE 40S THURSDAY AND MID 40S TO MID 50S
FRIDAY. GEFS GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE OPTIONS,
BUT SLIGHTLY FAVORS THE GFS, GIVING SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE
(55%/45% SPLIT) TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES OCCURRING. WITH OVERNIGHT
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY CALM WINDS, EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
IN THE TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
AROUND THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIMEFRAME, ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHAT
THIS TROUGH WILL BRING, BUT EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
SLIGHTLY INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION.
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LIST OF ACRONYMS
NBM - NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS
GFS - GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM
GEFS - GFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM
ECMWF - EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
CMC-NH - CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
FROPA - FRONTAL PASSAGE
PBL - PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER
LLJ - LOW LEVEL JET
MB - MILLIBAR
KTS - KNOTS
Z - ZULU TIME (UTC)
CWA - COUNTY WARNING AREA
CONUS - CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 855 PM MST FRI JAN 17 2025
FOR KGLD, MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS DOWN TO BKN020-030 AS
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS. THERE IS A PROB30 WITH 2SM IN SNOW FROM
07Z-12Z SATURDAY WHEN THE SNOW MAY BE MOST INTENSE. OTHERWISE,
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES THROUGH ABOUT 23Z, THEN BECOMING VFR. WINDS,
NORTH AROUND 15-30KTS THROUGH ABOUT 23Z SATURDAY, THEN DROPPING
TO THE 10-15KT RANGE.
FOR KMCK, LOOKING FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CEILINGS FROM 08Z-12Z
SATURDAY AROUND BKN025. WINDS, NORTH AROUND 20-30KTS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST. FROM 08Z-12Z SATURDAY, DROPPING DOWN TO
THE 10-15KT RANGE, AS WELL AS FROM 00Z SUNDAY ONWARD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR COZ090>092.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ091-092.
NE...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...JN
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