246
FXUS63 KGLD 182009
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
109 PM MST SAT JAN 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 25
TODAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 2 PM MST FOR
CHEYENNE/KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN COLORADO.
- EXTREME COLD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO
-30 DEGREES ARE FORECAST, MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- LIGHT SNOWFALL RETURNS TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER ONE INCH.
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE AREA
STARTING TUESDAY, HELPING THE AREA GET ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST SAT JAN 18 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...SNOWFALL CHANCES SLOWLY DECREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TODAY AS SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SNOWFALL CHANCES REMAIN
GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 AT 20%-60% WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF A TRACE TO HALF INCH. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING
25 TO 30 MPH, SOME BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON
COUNTIES CONTINUES THROUGH 2 PM MST. TONIGHT, NO PRECIPITATION IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER
20S. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. OVERNIGHT WIND CHILL READINGS ARE FORECAST TO FALL
INTO THE 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ZERO RANGE. AN EXTREME COLD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH. PRESENTLY, MOST OF THE AREA
GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 IS FLIRTING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
HITTING OUR -15F THRESHOLD FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL LET THE
DAY SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT TEMPERATURE AND WIND DATA BEFORE
DECIDING WHO IF ANYONE GOES INTO A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY, AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM THAT BRINGS A 20%-50% CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
TO AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION.
PRESENTLY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME VARIANCE IN VARIOUS MODEL
FORECASTS WITH SOME COLDER AND SOME WARMER THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. NBM MODEL SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES HAS DECREASED FROM 7 TO 8
DEGREES YESTERDAY TO 3 TO 6 DEGREES THIS MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO
WITH WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ZERO RANGE. WILL
BE CONTINUING WITH THE EXTREME COLD WATCH FOR THE TIME BEING.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY NIGHTS WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTH DURING THE DAY WITH 20%-40% CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW GENERALLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME A FEW TENTHS TO
NEAR AN INCH. WITH SOME NORTHWEST WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING IN THE
25 TO 30 MPH RANGE, SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER
TEENS ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE MIDDLE TEENS ELSEWHERE. NBM
TEMPERATURE SPREAD IS ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES, SO SOME FURTHER TWEAKS
UP OR DOWN WILL BE POSSIBLE. DRY WEATHER WITH RAPIDLY DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO WITH WIND CHILL READINGS
GENERALLY 15 BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO. THE EXTREME COLD WATCH
CONTINUES FOR NOW.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST SAT JAN 18 2025
FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD, THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH AROUND WEDNESDAY.
TUESDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS AS LOWS DROP INTO THE NEGATIVES UNDERNEATH CLEAR SKIES. THE
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY THE LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CANADA AND
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IF THE LOW PRESSURE SETS UP QUICKLY, THE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO PICK UP AND KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER. HOWEVER,
THE WINDS THEMSELVES MAY OFFSET THE TEMPERATURE INCREASE AND KEEP
WIND CHILLS AROUND THE -15 TO -25 FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
LATER IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, THE SOUTHWEST FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL HELP BRING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH 850MB
TEMPS NEARING 0C. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FORECAST, TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND MAY EVEN NEAR 40. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN FORM THE NORTH WELL
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THAT COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS BIT TRICKIER. WHILE GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THE WHOLE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.
THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HINTING AT ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS/DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION. IF THE
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CURRENT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS, A COLD FRONT
WOULD MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AND PROVIDE SOME SLIGHT COLD
AIR ADVECTION, KEEPING HIGHS AROUND THE 30'S AND LOW 40'S WITH
LOWS AROUND THE TEENS WED/THU. FRIDAY WOULD THEN SEE THE
GREATEST WARM UP WITH RIDGING FORECAST TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
AND WARM THE AREA. IN A SCENARIO WHERE A CUT-OFF LOW SPLITS FROM
THE TILTED TROUGH, TEMPERATURES WED/THU MAY BE A BIT COOLER
THAN FORECAST ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER. FRIDAY WOULD
LIKELY STILL BE WARM, BUT ALSO A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION, CHANCES REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH DRY AIR FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA. EVEN WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WEDNESDAY, THE MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE WELL BEHIND THE
FRONT PASSAGE AND KEEP CHANCES FAIRLY LOW. THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
CHANCE LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH, BUT AGAIN WILL NEED TO
SEE IF THAT CUT-OFF LOW FORMS AND SLOWS THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF
THE UPPER PATTERN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1013 AM MST SAT JAN 18 2025
WIDELY SPACED BANDS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR KGLD RESULTING IN BRIEF
BOUTS OF IFR VISIBILITIES; THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE
BRIEF IN NATURE BUT THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR THEM WAS ENOUGH TO
HAVE A TEMPO. AT THIS TIME THIS THREAT DOES NOT LOOK TO IMPACT
KMCK BUT WITH HOW SHALLOW THESE ARE IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO GET
MUCH/IF ANY LEAD TIME ON THEM DUE TO THE SPACING OF THE KGLD
RADAR AND SURROUNDING RADARS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST
TO CONTINUE WITH SOME BREAKS OCCURRING OVERNIGHT; ANOTHER ROUND
OF POTENTIALLY MVFR CEILINGS FOR KMCK IS FORECAST AROUND 09Z
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE MORNING SUNDAY.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
TO 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR KSZ001-013-027-041.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM MST
SUNDAY FOR COZ090>092.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM MST
SUNDAY FOR NEZ079.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...TRIGG
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