807
FXUS63 KGLD 190121
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
621 PM MST SAT JAN 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME COLD WATCH FOR TONIGHT HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AS WIND CHILLS LESS THAN
15 BELOW ARE FORECAST. ELSEWHERE WIND CHILLS AROUND 10 BELOW
REMAIN FORECASTED.
- EXTREME COLD WATCH DOES REMAIN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
-15 TO -30 BELOW WIND CHILLS.
- VERY COLD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST. WIND CHILLS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY MAY ALSO STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 5 BELOW.
- LIGHT SNOWFALL RETURNS TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER ONE INCH.
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE AREA
STARTING TUESDAY, HELPING THE AREA GET ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 620 PM MST SAT JAN 18 2025
UPDATE TO FORECAST ISSUED TO CLEAR OUT REMAINING AREAS THAT HAD
A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
STILL REMAINS A SLOW MOVING LOW/MID CLOUD DECK PUSHING SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA. THE BULK OF THESE CLOUDS RESIDE FROM THE
COLORADO BORDER EAST TO HIGHWAY 25. THESE CLOUDS ARE WHAT IS
KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES STEADY IN THE TEENS FOR A GOOD PORTION
OF THE CWA AS OF 620 PM MST. ONCE THIS CLEARS/SHIFTS SOUTH,
TEMPS SHOULD DROP WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A WIDE T/TD SPREAD
FROM 8 TO 18 DEGREES. WILL AWAIT THE CLOUDS TO CLEAR TO SEE HOW
TEMPS REACT BEFORE CONSIDERING ANY POTENTIAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST SAT JAN 18 2025
LOCALIZED SNOW BANDS ALONG AND WEST OF GENERALLY HIGHWAY 27 REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN BRIEF PERIODS OF VISIBILITY DROPPING
BRIEFLY DOWN TO AROUND 1 MILE OR SO WITHIN THESE BANDS. OVERALL NOT
MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THESE BUT IF A LOCALE CAN
CONTINUOUSLY AFFECTED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON THEN PERHAPS A
TENTH OR TWO CAN BE SQUEAKED OUT. OVERALL NOT TO ENTIRELY
SURPRISED BY THESE OCCURRING AS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AS THIS COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA WHERE ANY LITTLE AMOUNT OF LIFT CAN CAUSE A QUICK
SNOW SHOWER TO OCCUR. AS FOR THE INHERITED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY, I DID OPT TO END THAT AROUND 2 HOURS EARLY AS IMPACTS
DUE TOT HE BLOWING SNOW WHERE NOT BEING REALIZED MAINLY DUE TO
THE LACK OF SNOW PACK DESPITE WINDS GUSTING 25-35 MPH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED
INSTANCES OF SOME BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY NEAR WHERE THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OCCURRED WHICH LOOKS TO BE KIT CARSON COUNTY BUT THE
OVERALL EXTENT OF ANY IMPACT DOES LOOK TO BE MINIMAL.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, AS ANTICIPATED IT HAS BEEN A STRUGGLE TO
WARM UP DUE TO A MIX OF THE CLOUD COVER AND THE COLD AIR MASS
FILTERING IN. LOCATIONS WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE QUICKER
TO CLEAR HAVE MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S WHEREAS
THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN
THE TEENS. OVERNIGHT SOME CLEARING POTENTIAL LOOKS TO OCCUR
ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH SOME BOUTS
OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER OFF OF THE ROCKIES MAY
OCCASIONALLY MOVE OVER BUT NOT THINKING ITS GOING TO BE A
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. VERY DRY AIR WITH DEW POINTS FALLING
BELOW ZERO WILL ALSO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WHICH
WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO.
I WENT WITH SOME OF THE COOLER GUIDANCE AS THE LOCATION OF THE
CURRENT SURFACE HIGH IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF BEING FURTHER TO THE
WEST WHICH WILL SUPPORT VERY COLD AIR SPILLING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AND THEN EXPANDING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS; AS IS
TYPICAL IN SIMILAR SETUPS. I WOULD HAVE WENT COLDER ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO IF IT WASN'T FOR THE PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER
WHICH MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES MAY PLUMMET OVERNIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF THIS COMBINED WITH WINDS REMAINING AROUND 10
MPH WILL SUPPORT WIND CHILLS OF 15 BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 27, WHICH AS A RESULT I HAVE WENT AHEAD AND
ISSUED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR. AS FOR THE EXTREME COLD
WATCH HAVE ALTERED THE TIMING OF THAT TO 00Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z
TUESDAY AS THERE STILL REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR 15 BELOW ZERO
WIND CHILLS AND AS MENTIONED IN MY DISCUSSION YESTERDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO TAKE IT AS A NIGHT BY NIGHT APPROACH WITH THERE
BEING SO MANY VARIABLE THAT MAY ALTER TEMPERATURES AND/OR THE
COVERAGE.
850MB TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY HAVE COME UP SLIGHTLY AND ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SUN I HAVE NUDGED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP
SOME BUT STILL DO NOT THINK THERE IS ANY POTENTIAL OF ANY
OVER PRODUCING AS THE COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE FORECAST IN THE
MID TEENS TO MID 20S WITH THE WARMEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE SW WINDS MAY AID IN SLIGHT
WARMING. AT THIS TIME NOT SEEING ANY SIGNS OF ANY LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOWFALL DURING THE DAY. CLOUD
COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING AS
WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS SHORTWAVE DOES LOOK TO
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEFORE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 AS LIFT INCREASES. OVERALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
LIGHT GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO BUT THE NAM DOES TRY TO
SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS WICHITA,
SOUTHERN LOGAN AND SOUTHERN GOVE COUNTIES WHERE SOME 2 TO MAYBE
3 INCH AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE; CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS AROUND
15%. AT THIS TIME THIS DOES LOOK TO BE MORE OF A NUISANCE SNOW
ALONG WITH A MORE POWDERY NATURE AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COLDER.
TEMPERATURE WISE SUNDAY NIGHT ARE A LITTLE TOUGHER TO FORECAST DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVER. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE ONGOING
BUT THE CLOUDS MAY HELP INSULATE THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA FOR AT
LEAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO
SEE SOME CLEARING AS VERY DRY AIR WILL BEGIN PUSHING IN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND TO AROUND 10-15
MPH. THIS WILL BEGIN THE FOCUS FOR RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS AS PORTIONS OF YUMA AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES MAY FALL
BELOW -25F WIND CHILLS BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE CLEARING FACTOR.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST ONGOING SNOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP
LOWS ABOVE ZERO AND WIND CHILLS IN THE 0 TO -10 RANGE.
MONDAY; DESPITE CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY THE CONTINUED PUSH OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA WILL MAKE MOST STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS. SINCE THIS AIR MASS WILL BE MORE
SHALLOW IT IS COMPLETELY POSSIBLE THAT SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR AS WELL RESULTING IN LOW
SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURE FOR HIGHS. WIND CHILLS AS WELL MAY ALSO
NOT RISE ABOVE 15 BELOW FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A
VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS AS LOW AS -20F WILL ADVECT
INTO THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH QUICKLY PLUMMETING
TEMPERATURES AS THE SUN SETS AS SKIES LOOK TO BE CLEAR AND WINDS
WILL LIGHTEN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST ALLOWING FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. AREAS
TO THE WEST WILL SEE WINDS START TO TURN MORE TO THE WSW
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING SHUNTING THIS VERY COLD AIR MASS AWAY.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES FOR THE NIGHT MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND WITH THIS SLOWLY MOVING EASTERLY AS
WELL. IF THIS WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST IS SLOWER THAN TEMPERATURES
AND WIND CHILLS FOR THE WEST WILL BE LOWER THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST AT THIS TIME ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
POTENTIAL COLD WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST SAT JAN 18 2025
FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD, THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH AROUND WEDNESDAY.
TUESDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS AS LOWS DROP INTO THE NEGATIVES UNDERNEATH CLEAR SKIES. THE
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY THE LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CANADA AND
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IF THE LOW PRESSURE SETS UP QUICKLY, THE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO PICK UP AND KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER. HOWEVER,
THE WINDS THEMSELVES MAY OFFSET THE TEMPERATURE INCREASE AND KEEP
WIND CHILLS AROUND THE -15 TO -25 FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
LATER IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, THE SOUTHWEST FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL HELP BRING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH 850MB
TEMPS NEARING 0C. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FORECAST, TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND MAY EVEN NEAR 40. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN FORM THE NORTH WELL
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THAT COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS BIT TRICKIER. WHILE GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THE WHOLE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.
THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HINTING AT ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS/DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION. IF THE
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CURRENT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS, A COLD FRONT
WOULD MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AND PROVIDE SOME SLIGHT COLD
AIR ADVECTION, KEEPING HIGHS AROUND THE 30'S AND LOW 40'S WITH
LOWS AROUND THE TEENS WED/THU. FRIDAY WOULD THEN SEE THE
GREATEST WARM UP WITH RIDGING FORECAST TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
AND WARM THE AREA. IN A SCENARIO WHERE A CUT-OFF LOW SPLITS FROM
THE TILTED TROUGH, TEMPERATURES WED/THU MAY BE A BIT COOLER
THAN FORECAST ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER. FRIDAY WOULD
LIKELY STILL BE WARM, BUT ALSO A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION, CHANCES REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH DRY AIR FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA. EVEN WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WEDNESDAY, THE MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE WELL BEHIND THE
FRONT PASSAGE AND KEEP CHANCES FAIRLY LOW. THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
CHANCE LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH, BUT AGAIN WILL NEED TO
SEE IF THAT CUT-OFF LOW FORMS AND SLOWS THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF
THE UPPER PATTERN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 348 PM MST SAT JAN 18 2025
FOR KGLD, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME MVFR CEILINGS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 01Z SUNDAY.
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NORTHERLY AROUND 15-25KTS, BUT TAPER DOWN
TO ABOUT 10KTS BY 02Z. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST BY 05Z,
THEN WEST BY 14Z.
FOR KMCK, VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANY
SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT BY 18Z SUNDAY. WINDS,
NORTH 15-25KTS THROUGH 02Z SUNDAY, THEN DROPPING TO 10KTS. BY
07Z, WINDS AT THE TERMINAL WILL ALSO SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AROUND 5-10KTS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR
KSZ001-013-027-041.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ090>092.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR NEZ079.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR NEZ079>081.
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...JN
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