858
FXUS63 KGLD 190823
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
123 AM MST SUN JAN 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME COLD WATCH FOR TONIGHT HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AS WIND CHILLS LESS THAN
15 BELOW ARE FORECAST. ELSEWHERE WIND CHILLS AROUND 10 BELOW
REMAIN FORECASTED.
- EXTREME COLD WATCH DOES REMAIN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
-15 TO -30 BELOW WIND CHILLS.
- VERY COLD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST. WIND CHILLS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY MAY ALSO STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 5 BELOW.
- LIGHT SNOWFALL RETURNS TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER ONE INCH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST SAT JAN 18 2025
LOCALIZED SNOW BANDS ALONG AND WEST OF GENERALLY HIGHWAY 27 REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN BRIEF PERIODS OF VISIBILITY DROPPING
BRIEFLY DOWN TO AROUND 1 MILE OR SO WITHIN THESE BANDS. OVERALL NOT
MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THESE BUT IF A LOCALE CAN
CONTINUOUSLY AFFECTED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON THEN PERHAPS A
TENTH OR TWO CAN BE SQUEAKED OUT. OVERALL NOT TO ENTIRELY
SURPRISED BY THESE OCCURRING AS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AS THIS COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA WHERE ANY LITTLE AMOUNT OF LIFT CAN CAUSE A QUICK
SNOW SHOWER TO OCCUR. AS FOR THE INHERITED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY, I DID OPT TO END THAT AROUND 2 HOURS EARLY AS IMPACTS
DUE TOT HE BLOWING SNOW WHERE NOT BEING REALIZED MAINLY DUE TO
THE LACK OF SNOW PACK DESPITE WINDS GUSTING 25-35 MPH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED
INSTANCES OF SOME BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY NEAR WHERE THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OCCURRED WHICH LOOKS TO BE KIT CARSON COUNTY BUT THE
OVERALL EXTENT OF ANY IMPACT DOES LOOK TO BE MINIMAL.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, AS ANTICIPATED IT HAS BEEN A STRUGGLE TO
WARM UP DUE TO A MIX OF THE CLOUD COVER AND THE COLD AIR MASS
FILTERING IN. LOCATIONS WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE QUICKER
TO CLEAR HAVE MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S WHEREAS
THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN
THE TEENS. OVERNIGHT SOME CLEARING POTENTIAL LOOKS TO OCCUR
ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH SOME BOUTS
OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER OFF OF THE ROCKIES MAY
OCCASIONALLY MOVE OVER BUT NOT THINKING ITS GOING TO BE A
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. VERY DRY AIR WITH DEW POINTS FALLING
BELOW ZERO WILL ALSO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WHICH
WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO.
I WENT WITH SOME OF THE COOLER GUIDANCE AS THE LOCATION OF THE
CURRENT SURFACE HIGH IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF BEING FURTHER TO THE
WEST WHICH WILL SUPPORT VERY COLD AIR SPILLING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AND THEN EXPANDING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS; AS IS
TYPICAL IN SIMILAR SETUPS. I WOULD HAVE WENT COLDER ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO IF IT WASN'T FOR THE PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER
WHICH MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES MAY PLUMMET OVERNIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF THIS COMBINED WITH WINDS REMAINING AROUND 10
MPH WILL SUPPORT WIND CHILLS OF 15 BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 27, WHICH AS A RESULT I HAVE WENT AHEAD AND
ISSUED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR. AS FOR THE EXTREME COLD
WATCH HAVE ALTERED THE TIMING OF THAT TO 00Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z
TUESDAY AS THERE STILL REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR 15 BELOW ZERO
WIND CHILLS AND AS MENTIONED IN MY DISCUSSION YESTERDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO TAKE IT AS A NIGHT BY NIGHT APPROACH WITH THERE
BEING SO MANY VARIABLE THAT MAY ALTER TEMPERATURES AND/OR THE
COVERAGE.
850MB TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY HAVE COME UP SLIGHTLY AND ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SUN I HAVE NUDGED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP
SOME BUT STILL DO NOT THINK THERE IS ANY POTENTIAL OF ANY
OVER PRODUCING AS THE COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE FORECAST IN THE
MID TEENS TO MID 20S WITH THE WARMEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE SW WINDS MAY AID IN SLIGHT
WARMING. AT THIS TIME NOT SEEING ANY SIGNS OF ANY LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOWFALL DURING THE DAY. CLOUD
COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING AS
WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS SHORTWAVE DOES LOOK TO
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEFORE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 AS LIFT INCREASES. OVERALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
LIGHT GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO BUT THE NAM DOES TRY TO
SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS WICHITA,
SOUTHERN LOGAN AND SOUTHERN GOVE COUNTIES WHERE SOME 2 TO MAYBE
3 INCH AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE; CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS AROUND
15%. AT THIS TIME THIS DOES LOOK TO BE MORE OF A NUISANCE SNOW
ALONG WITH A MORE POWDERY NATURE AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COLDER.
TEMPERATURE WISE SUNDAY NIGHT ARE A LITTLE TOUGHER TO FORECAST DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVER. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE ONGOING
BUT THE CLOUDS MAY HELP INSULATE THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA FOR AT
LEAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO
SEE SOME CLEARING AS VERY DRY AIR WILL BEGIN PUSHING IN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND TO AROUND 10-15
MPH. THIS WILL BEGIN THE FOCUS FOR RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS AS PORTIONS OF YUMA AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES MAY FALL
BELOW -25F WIND CHILLS BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE CLEARING FACTOR.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST ONGOING SNOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP
LOWS ABOVE ZERO AND WIND CHILLS IN THE 0 TO -10 RANGE.
MONDAY; DESPITE CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY THE CONTINUED PUSH OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA WILL MAKE MOST STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS. SINCE THIS AIR MASS WILL BE MORE
SHALLOW IT IS COMPLETELY POSSIBLE THAT SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR AS WELL RESULTING IN LOW
SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURE FOR HIGHS. WIND CHILLS AS WELL MAY ALSO
NOT RISE ABOVE 15 BELOW FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A
VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS AS LOW AS -20F WILL ADVECT
INTO THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH QUICKLY PLUMMETING
TEMPERATURES AS THE SUN SETS AS SKIES LOOK TO BE CLEAR AND WINDS
WILL LIGHTEN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST ALLOWING FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. AREAS
TO THE WEST WILL SEE WINDS START TO TURN MORE TO THE WSW
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING SHUNTING THIS VERY COLD AIR MASS AWAY.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES FOR THE NIGHT MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND WITH THIS SLOWLY MOVING EASTERLY AS
WELL. IF THIS WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST IS SLOWER THAN TEMPERATURES
AND WIND CHILLS FOR THE WEST WILL BE LOWER THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST AT THIS TIME ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
POTENTIAL COLD WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 122 AM MST SUN JAN 19 2025
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. WHILE THIS CLIPPER WILL NOT MAKE A DIRECT IMPACT ON THE TRI-
STATE AREA, WE CAN EXPECT A NORTHWESTERLY 850 MB LLJ TO FORM REMAIN
IN PLACE UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY, A RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS, WEAKENING THE FARTHER EAST IT MOVES BY ANOTHER
TROUGH THAT FOLLOWS CLOSELY BEHIND. THE GFS, ECMWF, AND CMC-NH ARE
ALL FINALLY AGREEING THAT THE CUTOFF LOW THAT'S BEEN SITTING OFF THE
WEST COAST FOR ABOUT A WEEK WILL BE INGESTED INTO THIS WEEKEND
TROUGH, TO WHAT EXTENT IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE.
DOWN AT 850 MB, A HIGH WILL BE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR
CORNERS AREA INTO NORTHWESTERN TEXAS. THIS WILL MOVE SOME WARMER AIR
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, POTENTIALLY GETTING INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER,
WEDNESDAY MORNING, A COLORADO LOW FORMS AND MOVES SOUTHEAST, HELPING
DRAG COOLER AIR INTO THE CWA. NBM AND DIAGNOSTIC GUIDANCE IS PRETTY
CONFIDENT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY BEING THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S AND THE DRY AIR PREVENTING PRECIPITATION. THE 850 MB LLJ LOOKS
TO BE AROUND 30 KTS, WITH LITTLE TO NO INVERSION PREVENTING MIXING.
THIS WOULD ALLOW GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS TO OCCUR AT THE SURFACE.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE COPY OF WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
IN TEMPERATURES. IF THE LOW STAYS FARTHER WEST, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S, BUT IF THE LOW MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THERE IS NO STRONG
INDICATION WHAT THE LOW WILL DO YET, BUT WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.
LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD DROP INTO THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR.
FRIDAY MORNING, ALL THE GUIDANCE I AM SEEING (GFS, GEFS, ECMWF, &
CMC-NH) IS SHOWING THE 850 MB HIGH MOVES INTO TEXAS AND EXTENDS A
PRONOUNCED RIDGE INTO THE THE GREAT PLAINS. AT SOME POINT BETWEEN
12Z FRIDAY AND 6Z SATURDAY, A SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ OF 30-45 KTS FORMS,
PUMPING WARM, MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. IF ALL OF THIS COMES TO
FRUITION, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 50S FRIDAY. HOWEVER, IF
THIS RIDGE IS WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY SHOWN, THE LLJ WILL BE SLOWER
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S.
A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING IN AROUND THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIMEFRAME FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE IS LARGE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES IN WHAT
THIS TROUGH WILL BRING, SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. A COUPLE OF
SCENARIOS INCLUDE THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ
WOULD ALLOW THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. WHAT KIND OF PRECIPITATION WILL ENTIRELY DEPEND ON
THE PBL TEMPERATURES, BUT SNOW, RAIN, AND WINTRY MIX ARE ALL
POSSIBLE. CONVERSELY, THE LOW COULD STOP THE SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ
BEFORE IT MOVES MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE/NO PRECIPITATION.
LIST OF ACRONYMS
NBM - NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS
GFS - GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM
GEFS - GFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM
ECMWF - EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
CMC-NH - CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
CAA - COLD AIR ADVECTION
WAA - WARM AIR ADVECTION
POP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
PBL - PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER
LLJ - LOW LEVEL JET
RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY
F/C - FAHRENHEIT/CELSIUS
MB - MILLIBAR
KTS - KNOTS
Z - ZULU TIME (UTC)
CWA - COUNTY WARNING AREA
CONUS - CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 852 PM MST SAT JAN 18 2025
FOR KGLD, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS, NORTHWEST AROUND 10KTS THROUGH 14Z SUNDAY, THEN BECOMING
WESTERLY. BY 00Z MONDAY, LIGHT/VARIABLE.
FOR KMCK, VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS,
NORTHWEST 5-10KTS THROUGH 13Z SUNDAY, THEN LIGHT/VARIABLE.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR KSZ001-013-027-041.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
COZ090>092.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR COZ090>092.
NE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ079.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...JN
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