841
FXUS63 KGLD 191939
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1239 PM MST SUN JAN 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME COLD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR -15 TO -30
BELOW WIND CHILLS.
- LIGHT POWDERY SNOWFALL RETURNS TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT,
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY UNDER ONE INCH.
- NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AFTER
TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 857 AM MST SUN JAN 19 2025
THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AS
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING AND WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE
EXTREME COLD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING REMAINS UNCHANGED AT
THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SUN JAN 19 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE TODAY, AHEAD OF ANOTHER
WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MID EVENING,
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A 20%-50% CHANCE OF LIGHT POWDERY
SNOW AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, MAINLY FOR THOSE SOUTH OF THE
KS/NE BORDER. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM A TRACE TO A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. OVERNIGHT WIND CHILL READINGS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM 10 BELOW TO 27 BELOW ZERO, COLDEST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
DAY SHIFT WILL EVALUATE THE NEED FOR COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
AND POTENTIAL EXTREME COLD WARNINGS.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT
POWDERY SNOW DURING THE DAY (20%-60%) WITH DECREASING CHANCES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AS SUNDAYS NIGHTS WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A TRACE TO PERHAPS ONE INCH ARE
FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH DEVELOP BEHIND THE DEPARTING
PRECIPITATION AREA DURING THE DAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH 10 TO 15 DEGREES EAST OF THE CO/KS
BORDER AS THE FINAL SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
DAYTIME WIND CHILL READINGS MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO AND
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WHERE FLAGLER
IS HOVERING AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO. OVERNIGHT, WIND CHILL READINGS
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 10 BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO RANGE,
COLDEST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. AN EXTREME COLD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL BREAK OUT OF THE EXTREME
COLD AS WARM ABOVE FREEZING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S TO AROUND 40. HOWEVER, WITH NBM
MODEL SHOWING A 7 TO 11 DEGREE SPREAD IN HIGH TEMPERATURES, THEY
COULD BE LOWER, SIMILAR TO THE NAM/SREF HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE TEENS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM MST SUN JAN 19 2025
THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO FAVOR NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS WE ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. A SYSTEM AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS. WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AND A STRONGER HEIGHT GRADIENT,
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME STRONGER WITH SPEEDS AROUND 20-30
MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30'S
AND LOW 40'S WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES COULD BE A
BIT COOLER AND WINDS A BIT LIGHTER IF THE TROUGH DIGS MORE WEST
LIKE SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE CURRENTLY HINTING AT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AREN'T ZERO, BUT SIMILAR TO THE RECENT
COLD FRONT, CHANCES ARE LOW AS THE FRONT IS EARLY AND WELL AHEAD
OF THE SUGGESTED MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH.
FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO HAVE SOME SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA LATER IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STAY FROM THE
SOUTH AND PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
TO NEAR 50 AS LONG AS THE SYSTEM DOESN'T PUSH THROUGH TOO QUICKLY.
OTHERWISE, CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30'S AND 40'S. CURRENTLY, THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BE TOO DRY FOR
PRECIPITATION AS THE LOW PASSES WHICH IS WHY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE CURRENTLY LESS THAN 10%.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE NOT VERY CLEAR AS ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS THE MAIN TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THE
POSITIONING OF THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL DETERMINE WHAT CONDITIONS THE
AREA WILL FACE. UNFORTUNATELY, THERE IS AN EVEN SPREAD BETWEEN
A MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY CUT-OFF LOW AND A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN HOW DEEP IT GETS. THE OVERARCHING THEMES ARE
THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD AT LEAST BE A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY
AND THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED CHANCES FOR CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION AS WE SIT DOWNSTREAM OF THE CUT-OFF LOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 950 AM MST SUN JAN 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST AT EACH TERMINAL FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THIS TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KGLD WHERE
A PROB30 EXISTS AS SOME POWDERY SNOW MAY TRY TO DEVELOP BETWEEN
THE 05 AND 09Z TIME FRAME. I DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT TO MUCH
DRY AIR BEING IN PLACE WHICH IS THE REASONING FOR THE LESSER
CONFIDENCE VERSUS THE PRIOR VCSH MENTION. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LEADING TO BREEZY WINDS AND BEING MORE
FROM THE NNW DIRECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BEHIND
THIS MUCH DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN BRINGING AN END TO ANY CLOUD
COVER.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SUN JAN 19 2025
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. IN THIS AREA, RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FALLS TO AROUND 20 PERCENT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH.
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL INTO THE 15 TO 20
PERCENT RANGE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 27. SURFACE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE BELOW THRESHOLDS,
GENERALLY FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
MPH.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-
041-042.
CO...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NEZ079>081.
UPDATE...TRIGG
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...TRIGG
FIRE WEATHER...99
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